On the inclusion of ground-based gravity measurements to the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model: case of the Durzon karst system (Larzac, southern France)

This work examines the relevance of the inclusion of ground-based gravity data in the calibration process of a global rainfall-discharge reservoir model. The analysis is performed for the Durzon karst system (Larzac, France). The first part of the study focuses on the hydrological interpretation of the ground-based gravity measurements. The second part of the study investigates further the information content of the gravity data with respect to water storage dynamics modelling. The gravity-derived information is found unable to either reduce equifinality of the single-objective, discharge-based model calibration process or enhance model performance through assimilation.     

Rocking strong earthquake accelerations

In this paper, the method presented by Lee and Trifunac (1985) for generating synthetic torsional accelerograms has been extended to the estimation of synthetic rocking accelerograms and of their response spectra. Results from our previous regression analyses for the characterization of strong shaking in terms of (1) earthquake magnitude and epicentral distance, or (2) Modified Mercalli Intensity at the site are utilized here again. The effects of geologic environment, in terms of site parameters or the representative depth of sediments, which influence amplification, and the dispersive properties of ground motion are also included. The synthetic rocking accelerogram is then constructed from the horizontal and vertical acceleration components.     

Petrologic evolution of Krakatau (Indonesia): Implications for a future activity

Krakatau Volcano is located along a N35E volcanic lineament running through the Sunda straits (Indonesia). Its last activity has been characterized by successive phases, each beginning with the construction of a cone, and ending with its destruction and the formation of a caldera. The two last (pre- and post-1883) cycles are well known, but the more ancient ones are not so clearly defined.Lavas of Krakatau belong to an andesitic series, in which fractional crystallization plays the most important role. The petrologic evolution is characterized by a cyclicity in good agreement with the structural evolution: the succession is regular: basalts, basic andesites, acid andesites, dacites. A gap between acid and basic andesites occurs in each cycle. The destructive stages correspond to the occurrence of dacitic terms.The Anak cycle was characterized from 1927 to 1979 by basalts and basic andesites; the 1981 eruption involved a more differentiated magma (close to dacitic). Detailed study of the petrologic evolution since 1883 emphasizes the predominant role of fractional crystallization. This process occurred during a very short period, between 1979 and 1981. Separation of labradorite, augite, olivine and magnetite from parental basic andesite may generate the dacitic descendant, in a shallow reservoir (P_H2O estimated about 0.5 kbar). Implications for a future activity are considered.     

An Observational Study of the Mesoscale Mistral Dynamics

We investigate the mesoscale dynamics of the mistral through the wind profiler observations of the MAP (autumn 1999) and ESCOMPTE (summer 2001) field campaigns. We show that the mistral wind field can dramatically change on a time scale less than 3 hours. Transitions from a deep to a shallow mistral are often observed at any season when the lower layers are stable. The variability, mainly attributed in summer to the mistral/land–sea breeze interactions on a 10-km scale, is highlighted by observations from the wind profiler network set up during ESCOMPTE. The interpretations of the dynamical mistral structure are performed through comparisons with existing basic theories. The linear theory of R. B. Smith [Advances in Geophysics, Vol. 31, 1989, Academic Press, 1–41] and the shallow water theory [Schär, C. and Smith, R. B.: 1993a, J. Atmos. Sci. 50, 1373–1400] give some complementary explanations for the deep-to-shallow transition especially for the MAP mistral event. The wave breaking process induces a low-level jet (LLJ) downstream of the Alps that degenerates into a mountain wake, which in turn provokes the cessation of the mistral downstream of the Alps. Both theories indicate that the flow splits around the Alps and results in a persistent LLJ at the exit of the Rhône valley. The LLJ is strengthened by the channelling effect of the Rhône valley that is more efficient for north-easterly than northerly upstream winds despite the north–south valley axis. Summer moderate and weak mistral episodes are influenced by land–sea breezes and convection over land that induce a very complex interaction that cannot be accurately described by the previous theories.     

Numerical simulation of percussive drilling

This paper presents a novel dynamical model to analyze the long‐term response of a percussive drilling system. This departs from existing approaches that usually consider a single activation and bit/rock interaction cycle for the analysis of the process performance. The proposed model integrates the axial dynamics of an elastic piston and an elastic drill bit, a motion‐dependent pressure law to drive the piston, and a generalized bit/rock interaction law representative of the dynamic indentation taking place at the bit/rock interface. It applies to down‐the‐hole percussive drilling as well as top‐hole, with minor modifications. The model does not account for the angular motion or the hole cleaning, however. The model is first formulated mathematically; then, a finite‐dimensional approximation is proposed for computations. Numerical analyses of the model response, for a low‐size down‐the‐hole percussive system, follow. The period‐1 stationary response for the reference configuration is studied in detail, and parametric analyses assessing the influence on the rate of penetration of the bit/rock interaction parameters, the feed force, and the percussive activation parameters are conducted. These analyses reveal that the multiscale nature of the process is well captured by the model and recover expected trends for the influence of the parameters. They also suggest that a significant increase of the penetration rate can be achieved by increasing the percussive frequency. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Characterisation of hydroclimatological trends and variability in the Lake Naivasha basin,Kenya

Recent hydro‐climatological trends and variability characteristics were investigated for the Lake Naivasha basin with the aim of understanding the changes in water balance components and their evolution over the past 50 years. Using a Bayesian change point analysis and modified Mann–Kendall tests, time series of annual mean, maximum, minimum, and seasonal precipitation and flow, as well as annual mean lake volumes, were analysed for the period 1960–2010 to uncover possible abrupt shifts and gradual trends. Double cumulative curve analysis was used to investigate the changes in hydrological response attributable to either human influence or climatic variability. The results indicate a significant decline in lake volumes at a mean rate of 9.35 × 10⁶ m³ year^?1. Most of the river gauging stations showed no evidence of trends in the annual mean and maximum flows as well as seasonal flows. Annual minimum flows, however, showed abrupt shifts and significant (upward/downward) trends at the main outlet stations. Precipitation in the basin showed no evidence of abrupt shifts, but a few stations showed gradual decline. The observed changes in precipitation could not explain the decline in both minimum flows and lake volumes. The findings show no evidence of any impact of climate change for the Lake Naivasha basin over the past 50 years. This implies that other factors, such as changes in land cover and infrastructure development, have been responsible for the observed changes in streamflow and lake volumes. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reconstruction of Horizontal Plasma Motions at the Photosphere from Intensitygrams: A Comparison Between DeepVel,LCT, FLCT,and CST

Direct measurements of plasma motions in the photosphere are limited to the line-of-sight component of the velocity. Several algorithms have therefore been developed to reconstruct the transverse components from observed continuum images or magnetograms. We compare the space and time averages of horizontal velocity fields in the photosphere inferred from pairs of consecutive intensitygrams by the LCT, FLCT, and CST methods and the DeepVel neural network in order to identify the method that is best suited for generating synthetic observations to be used for data assimilation. The Stein and Nordlund (Astrophys. J. Lett.753, L13, 2012) magnetoconvection simulation is used to generate synthetic SDO/HMI intensitygrams and reference flows to train DeepVel. Inferred velocity fields show that DeepVel performs best at subgranular and granular scales and is second only to FLCT at mesogranular and supergranular scales.     

Identification of Gleissberg Cycles and a Rising Trend in a 315-Year-Long Series of Sunspot Numbers

We show in this short note that the method of singular spectrum analysis (SSA) is able to clearly extract a strong, clean, and clear component from the longest available sunspot (International Sunspot Number, ISN) time series (1700?–?2015) that cannot be an artifact of the method and that can be safely identified as the Gleissberg cycle. This is not a small component, as it accounts for 13% of the total variance of the total original signal. Almost three and a half clear Gleissberg cycles are identified in the sunspot number series. Four extended solar minima (XSM) are determined by SSA, the latest around 2000 (Cycle 23/24 minimum). Several authors have argued in favor of a double-peaked structure for the Gleissberg cycle, with one peak between 55 and 59 years and another between 88 and 97 years. We find no evidence of the former: solar activity contains an important component that has undergone clear oscillations of \(\approx90\) years over the past three centuries, with some small but systematic longer-term evolution of “instantaneous” period and amplitude. Half of the variance of solar activity on these time scales can be satisfactorily reproduced as the sum of a monotonous multi-secular increase, a \(\approx90\)-year Gleissberg cycle, and a double-peaked (\(\approx10.0\) and 11.0 years) Schwabe cycle (the sum amounts to 46% of the total variance of the signal). The Gleissberg-cycle component definitely needs to be addressed when attempting to build dynamo models of solar activity. The first SSA component offers evidence of an increasing long-term trend in sunspot numbers, which is compatible with the existence of the modern grand maximum.