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This is a web presentation of the work presented at the 10th Annual Conference of the CFD Society of Canada, “CFD 2002”, at the University of Windsor on June 9-11, 2002. This discussion paper presents the four-dimensional variational data assimilation (4D-VAR) technique as a tool to forecast floods. This discussion will be limited to hydrological forecast. We assume that the weather, here a large rainstorm, had already been forecasted by the meteorological services. In the 4D-VAR technique, we need to minimize, in the sense of Lagrange, a cost function which measures the difference between the forecast and the observations. The physical equations acts as a set of constraints. Here, the model is the shallow-water equations modified to include sediment transport. The minimum was found by using the steepest descent algorithm. This is made possible because the gradient of the cost function can be calculated analytically by using the adjoint equations of the model. To illustrate the 4D-VAR technique, the bypass of a simple theoretical dam as well as the more complex overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam (during the 1996 flood) are investigated. 相似文献
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借助辅助函数的思想, 采用波函数展开法给出了圆弧形凸起地形中隧洞对入射平面SH波影响问题的一个解析解.数值结果表明,凸起地形中隧洞的存在以及隧洞大小,对凸起地形表面运动,以及凸起地形中的隧洞的动应力集中均具有显著影响. 相似文献
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The seasonal and interannual behaviour of monthly mean winds at a height of 90 km recorded at Grahamstown (33.3°S, 26.5°E) and Adelaide (34.5°S, 138.5°E) between 1987 and 1994 are compared. The zonal wind is found to be consistently stronger at Grahamstown and is always eastward, whereas at Adelaide it sometimes reverses. Maxima tend to occur near the solstices, the primary maximum during summer at Grahamstown, in agreement with satellite results, and during winter at Adelaide. The meridional wind also tends to be stronger at Grahamstown, but at both stations is predominantly northward with a maximum in summer and generally not as strong as the zonal component. This seasonal behaviour is reasonably well understood in terms of the interaction of the mean flow with gravity waves propagating up from below, with coriolis forces also playing an important role in the case of the meridional wind. Satellite observations do not generally support the idea that longitudinal differences between the stations could be attributed to the presence of a tropospheric/stratospheric stationary wave. It is suggested that these differences are more probably associated with local effects. Interannual zonal wind patterns at the two sites are similar over the summer months but are less well correlated during the rest of the year. The underlying causes of this variability are not well understood but are most probably global in nature, at least during the summer. 相似文献
26.
The reflection of plane waves in a poroelastic half-space saturated with inviscid fluid 总被引:8,自引:2,他引:8
Chi-Hsin Lin Vincent W. Lee Mihailo D. Trifunac 《Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering》2005,25(3):205-223
This paper discusses surface displacements, surface strain, rocking, and energy partitioning during reflection-of-plane waves in a fluid-saturated poroelastic half-space. The medium is modeled by Biot's theory, and is assumed to be saturated with inviscid fluid. A linear porosity-modulus relation based on experimental data on sandstones is used to determine the material parameters for Biot's model. Numerical results in terms of angle of incident waves and Poisson's ratio are illustrated for various porosities and degrees of solid frame stiffness. The results show that the amount of solid frame stiffness controls the response of a fluid-saturated porous system. A poroelastic medium with essentially dry-frame stiffness behaves like an elastic medium, and the influence of pore fluid increases as dry-frame stiffness is reduced. The effects of a second P-wave become noticeable in poroelastic media with low dry-frame stiffness. 相似文献
27.
In this paper, the four-dimensional variational data assimilation technique (4D-VAR) is presented as a tool to forecast floods. Our study is limited to purely hydrological flows and supposes that the weather, here a big rain, has been already forecasted by meteorological services. The technique consists in minimizing, in the sense of Lagrange, the cost function: a measure of the difference between calculated data and available observations, here the water level. This is done under constraints that are the equations of the physical model. In our case, we modified the shallow-water equations to include a simplified sediment transport model. The steepest descent algorithm is then used to find the minimum. This is made possible because we can compute analytically the gradient of the cost function by using the adjoint equations of the model. As an application of the 4D-VAR technique, the overflowing of the Chicoutimi River at the Chute-Garneau dam, during the 1996 flood, is investigated. It is found that the 4D-VAR method reduces the error in the water height forecast even when the erosion model is not activated. In terms of Lyapunov exponents, we estimate the predictability horizon of such an event to be about half-an-hour after a big rain. However, this limit of predictability can be increased by using more observations or by using a finer computational grid. 相似文献
28.
The capacity to adapt is a critical element of the process of adaptation: it is the vector of resources that represent the asset base from which adaptation actions can be made. Adaptive capacity can in theory be identified and measured at various scales, from the individual to the nation. The assessment of uncertainty within such measures comes from the contested knowledge domain and theories surrounding the nature of the determinants of adaptive capacity and the human action of adaptation. While generic adaptive capacity at the national level, for example, is often postulated as being dependent on health, governance and political rights, and literacy, and economic well-being, the determinants of these variables at national levels are not widely understood. We outline the nature of this uncertainty for the major elements of adaptive capacity and illustrate these issues with the example of a social vulnerability index for countries in Africa. To cite this article: W.N. Adger, K. Vincent, C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
29.
Olivier Regnault Vincent Lagneau Hubert Catalette Hélène Schneider 《Comptes Rendus Geoscience》2005,337(15):1331-1339
Carbon dioxide sequestration in deep aquifers and depleted oilfields is a potential technical solution for reducing green-house gas release to the atmosphere: the gas containment relies on several trapping mechanisms (supercritical CO2, CO2(sc), dissolution together with slow water flows, mineral trapping) and on a low permeability cap-rock to prevent CO2(sc), which is less dense than the formation water, from leaking upwards. A leakproof cap-rock is thus essential to ensure the sequestration efficiency. It is also crucial for safety assessment to identify and assess potential alteration processes that may damage the cap-rock properties: chemical alteration, fracture reactivation, degradation of injection borehole seals, etc. The reactivity of the host-rock minerals with the supercritical CO2 fluid is one of the potential mechanisms, but it is altogether unknown. Reactivity tests have been carried out under such conditions, consisting of batch reactions between pure minerals and anhydrous supercritical CO2, or a two-phase CO2/H2O fluid at 200?°C and 105/160 bar. After 45 to 60 days, evidence of appreciable mineral-fluid reactivity was identified, including in the water-free experiments. For the mixed H2O/CO2 experiments, portlandite was totally transformed into calcite; anorthite displayed many dissolution patterns associated with calcite, aragonite, tridymite and smectite precipitations. For the anhydrous CO2 experiments, portlandite was totally carbonated to form calcite and aragonite; anorthite also displayed surface alteration patterns with secondary precipitation of fibrous calcite. To cite this article: O. Regnault et al., C. R. Geoscience 337 (2005). 相似文献
30.
Kelsey?N.?EllisEmail author Jon?M.?Hathaway Lisa?Reyes?Mason David?A.?Howe Thomas?H.?Epps Vincent?M.?Brown 《Theoretical and Applied Climatology》2017,127(3-4):701-710
The urban heat island (UHI) is a well-documented effect of urbanization on local climate, identified by higher temperatures compared to surrounding areas, especially at night and during the warm season. The details of a UHI are city-specific, and microclimates may even exist within a given city. Thus, investigating the spatiotemporal variability of a city’s UHI is an ongoing and critical research need. We deploy ten weather stations across Knoxville, Tennessee, to analyze the city’s UHI and its differential impacts across urban neighborhoods: two each in four neighborhoods, one in more dense tree cover and one in less dense tree cover, and one each in downtown Knoxville and Ijams Nature Center that serve as control locations. Three months of temperature data (beginning 2 July 2014) are analyzed using paired-sample t tests and a three-way analysis of variance. Major findings include the following: (1) Within a given neighborhood, tree cover helps negate daytime heat (resulting in up to 1.19 °C lower maximum temperature), but does not have as large of an influence on minimum temperature; (2) largest temperature differences between neighborhoods occur during the day (0.38–1.16 °C difference), but larger differences between neighborhoods and the downtown control occur at night (1.04–1.88 °C difference); (3) presiding weather (i.e., air mass type) has a significant, consistent impact on the temperature in a given city, and lacks the differential impacts found at a larger-scale in previous studies; (4) distance from city center does not impact temperature as much as land use factors. This is a preliminary step towards informing local planning with a scientific understanding of how mitigation strategies may help minimize the UHI and reduce the effects of extreme weather on public health and well-being. 相似文献