An Overview of the Second Generation Adjusted Daily Precipitation Dataset for Trend Analysis in Canada

A second generation adjusted precipitation daily dataset has been prepared for trend analysis in Canada. Daily rainfall and snowfall amounts have been adjusted for 464 stations for known measurement issues such as wind undercatch, evaporation and wetting losses for each type of rain-gauge, snow water equivalent from ruler measurements, trace observations and accumulated amounts from several days. Observations from nearby stations were sometimes combined to create time series that are longer; hence, making them more useful for trend studies. In this new version, daily adjustments are an improvement over the previous version because they are derived from an extended dataset and enhanced metadata knowledge. Datasets were updated to cover recent years, including 2009. The impact of the adjustments on rainfall and snowfall total amounts and trends was examined in detail. As a result of adjustments, total rainfall amounts have increased by 5 to 10% in southern Canada and by more than 20% in the Canadian Arctic, compared to the original observations, while the effect of the adjustments on snowfall were larger and more variable throughout the country. The slope of the rain trend lines decreased as a result of the larger correction applied to the older rain-gauges while the slope of the snow trend lines increased, mainly along the west coast and in the Arctic. Finally, annual and seasonal rainfall and snowfall trends based on the adjusted series were computed for 1950–2009 and 1900–2009. Overall, rainfall has increased across the country while a mix of non-significant increasing and decreasing trends was found during the summer in the Canadian Prairies. Snowfall has increased mainly in the north while a significant decrease was observed in the southwestern part of the country for 1950–2009.

     

CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: contemporary climate

The present study is a preliminary interrogation of the ability of ten Earth System Models (ESMs) from the fifth phase of coupled model intercomparison project to characterize seasonal and annual mean precipitation cycle over the Greater Horn of Africa region. Each ESM had at least 2 ensemble members. In spite of distributional anomalies of observations, ESM ensemble means were examined on the basis of gridded precipitation data. Majority of the ten ESMs analyzed correctly reproduce the mean seasonal and annual cycle of precipitation for the period 1979–2008 as compared to gridded satellite-derived observations. At the same time our analysis shows significant biases in individual models depending on region and season. Specifically, a modest number of models were able to capture correctly the peaks of bimodal (MAM and OND) and JJAS rainfall while a few either dragged the onset to subsequent months or displaced the locations of seasonal rainfall further north. Nearly all models were in agreement with their representation of the zonal orientation of spatial pattern of the leading EOF rainfall modes; more so, enhanced precipitation over the Indian Ocean and a dipole mode of precipitation pattern are captured in the first and second mode respectively. Further, the corresponding EOF time series of the ESMs rainfall modes were all in phase with observations. However, all models output were positively biased against observations, with large medians and varied range of anomalies. Therefore, caution needs to be taken when choosing models for applications over the region, especially when ensemble means have to be considered.     

Coasts, water levels, and climate change: A Great Lakes perspective

The North American Laurentian Great Lakes hold nearly 20 % of the earth’s unfrozen fresh surface water and have a length of coastline, and a coastal population, comparable to frequently-studied marine coasts. The surface water elevations of the Great Lakes, in particular, are an ideal metric for understanding impacts of climate change on large hydrologic systems, and for assessing adaption measures for absorbing those impacts. In light of the importance of the Great Lakes to the North American and global economies, the Great Lakes and the surrounding region also serve as an important benchmark for hydroclimate research, and offer an example of successful adaptive management under changing climate conditions. Here, we communicate some of the important lessons to be learned from the Great Lakes by examining how the coastline, water level, and water budget dynamics of the Great Lakes relate to other large coastal systems, along with implications for water resource management strategies and climate scenario-derived projections of future conditions. This improved understanding fills a critical gap in freshwater and marine global coastal research.     

Kuramoto Model of Nonlinear Coupled Oscillators as a Way for Understanding Phase Synchronization: Application to Solar and Geomagnetic Indices

We apply a Kuramoto model of nonlinear coupled oscillators to the simulation of slow variations of the phase difference between sunspot number [R _I ] and geomagnetic indices [aa and ζ]. The Kuramoto model is described for the particular case of two oscillators connected by symmetric coupling with quasi-stationary behavior, and its properties are investigated. By solving an inverse problem, we reconstruct the evolution of the couplings between pairs of indices [R _I and aa, R _I and ζ, aa and ζ], and interpret these in terms of the physics of the solar dynamo. The de-correlation between R _I and geomagnetic indices found in Solar Cycle 20 by Le Mouël et al. (J. Geophys. Res. 117, A09103, 2012) is successfully reproduced by the Kuramoto model and corresponds to the alternation of the leading oscillator. Application of the Kuramoto model to the cross-correlations [C(R _I ,ζ) and C(aa,ζ)] for ζ-indices computed in eight geomagnetic stations shows the latitudinal dependence of the mean phase difference. We discuss these results in terms of the solar-wind contribution to local geomagnetic indices [ζ].     

Submm observations of herbig ae/be systems

Studies of circumstellar dust and gas in pre-main-sequence systems are in part motivated by a desire to probe possible sites of future or on-going planet formation and, should accretion onto young stars be taking place, to determine whether the observed remnants of embryonic envelopes might yet contribute significantly to the final masses of stars as they evolve towards the main sequence. New 0.35- to 1.3-mm flux measurements have been made for 13 intermediate-mass pre-MS systems in order to estimate total dust+gas masses and to investigate the spatial distribution of circumstellar material. At least two sources may be dominated by compact circumstellar disks; emission from extended envelopes appears to be important for the majority of sources. HD 163296 is an unusual object and warrants further examination.     

Radial velocity variations of the pulsating subdwarf B star PG 1605+072

We present an analysis of high-speed spectroscopy of the pulsating subdwarf B star PG 1605+072. Periodic radial motions are detected at frequencies similar to those reported for photometric variations in the star, with amplitudes of up to 6 km s⁻¹. Differences between relative strengths for given frequency peaks for our velocity data and previously measured photometry are probably a result of shifting of power between modes over time. Small differences in the detected frequencies may also indicate mode-shifting. We report the detection of line-shape variations using the moments of the cross-correlation function profiles. It may be possible to use the moments to identify the pulsation modes of the star.     

The relativistic equations of motion for a satellite in orbit about a finite-size,rotating Earth

The relativistic equations of motion are derived for N self-gravitating, rotating finite bodies. These equations are then applied to the near-Earth satellite orbit determination problem. The apparent change of the shape of the Earth from the Earth centered frame to the Solar System barycentric frame changes the value of the Newtonian potential term in the metric. This in turn leads to a simplification of the equations of motion in the barycentric frame.     

Coupling between progressive damage and permeability of concrete: analysis with a discrete model

A significant increase of the permeability of concrete upon micro‐cracking and a good correlation between the evolution of damage (material stiffness) and permeability are observed experimentally. The present contribution investigates this correlation theoretically, with the help of lattice analyses. Scaling analysis of lattices which contain elastic brittle bonds has shown that the material degradation should be described by the evolution of the material stiffness, or compliance, in a continuum setting (damage models). This result is reviewed and further documented in the first part of the paper. In the second part, hydro‐mechanical problems are considered with the construction of a hydraulic lattice, dual to the mechanical one. We observe that the average permeability upon micro‐cracking is the lattice scale‐independent controlling variable in the hydraulic problem. Additionally, results show that in a continuum poro‐mechanical approach, the evolution of the material permeability ought to be related to the elastic unloading stiffness, described e.g. with the help of continuum damage variables. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.