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111.
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Barbara A. Muhling Carlos F. Gaitán Charles A. Stock Vincent S. Saba Desiree Tommasi Keith W. Dixon 《Estuaries and Coasts》2018,41(2):349-372
Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO2 emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries. 相似文献
113.
A second generation adjusted precipitation daily dataset has been prepared for trend analysis in Canada. Daily rainfall and snowfall amounts have been adjusted for 464 stations for known measurement issues such as wind undercatch, evaporation and wetting losses for each type of rain-gauge, snow water equivalent from ruler measurements, trace observations and accumulated amounts from several days. Observations from nearby stations were sometimes combined to create time series that are longer; hence, making them more useful for trend studies. In this new version, daily adjustments are an improvement over the previous version because they are derived from an extended dataset and enhanced metadata knowledge. Datasets were updated to cover recent years, including 2009. The impact of the adjustments on rainfall and snowfall total amounts and trends was examined in detail. As a result of adjustments, total rainfall amounts have increased by 5 to 10% in southern Canada and by more than 20% in the Canadian Arctic, compared to the original observations, while the effect of the adjustments on snowfall were larger and more variable throughout the country. The slope of the rain trend lines decreased as a result of the larger correction applied to the older rain-gauges while the slope of the snow trend lines increased, mainly along the west coast and in the Arctic. Finally, annual and seasonal rainfall and snowfall trends based on the adjusted series were computed for 1950–2009 and 1900–2009. Overall, rainfall has increased across the country while a mix of non-significant increasing and decreasing trends was found during the summer in the Canadian Prairies. Snowfall has increased mainly in the north while a significant decrease was observed in the southwestern part of the country for 1950–2009. 相似文献
114.
Vladimir Kossobokov Jean-Louis Le Mouël Vincent Courtillot 《Journal of Atmospheric and Solar》2010,72(7-8):595-606
We study the effect of solar variability on temperatures recorded in three European stations with the longest gapless series available (Prague, Bologna and Uccle). Following a pattern recognition approach, we partition daily temperature “indices” (minimum, maximum and range) in two separate classes with respect to the level of solar activity (high H vs low L 11 year cycles). Using the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov statistics, multiple shuffles of data, and other partitions, we demonstrate that the separation between the probability distribution functions of H and L temperatures is statistically significant and robust. We find that average annual variations for the H and L classes display common and site-specific patterns. For practically all series considered, differences between graphs of annual change for the two classes H and L are large (~1 °C). Solar activity accounts, at least in part, for the multi-decadal variations in temperature observed at these European sites in the past two centuries. 相似文献
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Vincent Jomelli & Pascal Bertran 《Geografiska Annaler: Series A, Physical Geography》2001,83(1-2):15-28
We analyse the morphology and sedimentology of 25 dirty snow avalanche deposits in the French Alps. The deposits typically have either a snow-ball structure or a massive structure with sliding planes. The snow balls show a longitudinal and a vertical sorting that reflects a sieve effect, similar to that observed in other rapid inertial granular flows. The massive type results from snow compaction when the avalanche is channelled by a gully or when it reaches the distal part of the scree. Velocity decrease and compaction limit the deformation to a zone at the base of the snow mass and cause the formation of distinctive sliding planes. These appear as smooth recrystallised surfaces due to local melt from frictional heating. The flow can be assimilated to a frictional granular flow. No systematic variation of size and shape of the rock debris has been observed along the profiles in both types of deposit. The distribution of rock debris and its fabric suggest that the clasts are transported passively and do not undergo any sorting during displacement. Snow melt after avalanching causes a redistribution of rock debris particularly when the snow thickness is important. This redistribution does not generate new sedimentological characteristics such as enhanced sorting or fabric. 相似文献
118.
Anne Gebhardt Anne Poszwa Laurence Mansuy-Huault Vincent Robin Luc Vrydaghs Catherine Lorgeoux 《Geoarchaeology》2024,39(3):187-211
This multidisciplinary study aims to decipher the impact of ancient charcoal production on past and present-day soils in the northern Vosges Mountains. Soil observations in the field and laboratory were complemented by charcoal and phytolith studies on large thin sections, molecular analyses of organic pollutants, and phytolith analysis on bulk samples. The complex technosol platform records an ancient natural soil sequence buried by a human-made platform on which charcoal accumulated. The current upslope soil is an entic Podzol. Palaeoecological data collected in the buried soil are reliable owing to low bioactivity due to soil acidity. Podzolisation predated the platform construction. The presence of ashes induced low soil alkalisation developed in the charcoal hearth remains and appears to have generated the migration of subsequent iron/clay/organic bands throughout the platform sediment and the buried soil. Charcoal studied in thin sections revealed mainly Quercus and Fagus taxa. Phytolith studies suggest that a less dense or degraded forest preceded platform construction, probably due to former woodland coppicing or earlier disorganised wood gathering. The specific distribution of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons sorbed on charcoal has persisted in soils throughout centuries, but we have no evidence that charcoal-making activities contributed to diffuse global pollution. 相似文献
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The objective in this experimental work is to evaluate the capability of several cylindrical buoys to follow and measure waves. Eleven configurations have been studied, eight among which were furnished with disks of different diameters at the waterline. The experiments took place in the test basin at ISITV. On the one hand, we have obtained a set of transfer coefficients for each frequency and each configuration in regular waves. On the other hand, we have determined the corresponding transfer functions, then we have used the latter to measure irregular waves. The time signals as measured by the buoys with and without corrections have been compared with wave gage measurements and subjected to a wave-by-wave analysis. The results allow the conclusion that the buoy with a medium size disk constitutes the best compromise. In fact, it permits the buoy to follow the free surface while minimizing parasitic motions. 相似文献