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Oguz  Emir Ahmet  Depina  Ivan  Thakur  Vikas 《Landslides》2022,19(1):67-83

Uncertainties in parameters of landslide susceptibility models often hinder them from providing accurate spatial and temporal predictions of landslide occurrences. Substantial contribution to the uncertainties in landslide assessment originates from spatially variable geotechnical and hydrological parameters. These input parameters may often vary significantly through space, even within the same geological deposit, and there is a need to quantify the effects of the uncertainties in these parameters. This study addresses this issue with a new three-dimensional probabilistic landslide susceptibility model. The spatial variability of the model parameters is modeled with the random field approach and coupled with the Monte Carlo method to propagate uncertainties from the model parameters to landslide predictions (i.e., factor of safety). The resulting uncertainties in landslide predictions allow the effects of spatial variability in the input parameters to be quantified. The performance of the proposed model in capturing the effect of spatial variability and predicting landslide occurrence has been compared with a conventional physical-based landslide susceptibility model that does not account for three-dimensional effects on slope stability. The results indicate that the proposed model has better performance in landslide prediction with higher accuracy and precision than the conventional model. The novelty of this study is illustrating the effects of the soil heterogeneity on the susceptibility of shallow landslides, which was made possible by the development of a three-dimensional slope stability model that was coupled with random field model and the Monte Carlo method.

  相似文献   
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Rajasree  V. P. M.  Bhate  Jyoti N.  Kesarkar  Amit P.  Singh  Vikas 《Natural Hazards》2021,109(1):371-388
Natural Hazards - Tropical cyclogenesis and rapid weakening are subjects of considerable interest in the literature. This paper addresses the genesis and rapid weakening of a North Indian Ocean...  相似文献   
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2D Numerical Simulations of Soil Nail Walls   总被引:2,自引:1,他引:1  
In practice, numerical simulations of soil nail walls are often carried out to assess the performance and stability. In the present study, implications of the use of advanced soil models, such as hardening soil model and hardening soil with small-strain stiffness model to simulate the behavior of in situ soil on the overall response of simulated soil nail wall have been studied, and compared with respect to the analysis using conventional and most prevalently used Mohr-Coulomb soil model. Further, influence of the consideration of bending stiffness of soil nails on the simulation results has been examined. Results of the simulations indicated that the use of advanced models is desirable for cases of soil nail walls constructed in soft soils and when lateral wall displacements are critical to the adjoining structures. Incorporation of bending stiffness of nails is found important from the consideration of facing failure modes of soil nail walls.  相似文献   
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The present paper deals with the buckling and vibration of prismatic beams resting on an elastic half-space. The computational procedure developed herein utilizes the advantages of both an analytical approach and a finite element scheme. This is accomplished by deriving exact frequency and axial force dependent stiffness matrices using the analytical solutions of the governing differential equation as ‘shape functions’. The major advantages of the proposed approach over previous ones are pointed out and discussed in detail. Numerical results demonstrating the performance of the proposed method are presented in the final part of the paper.  相似文献   
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The concentration of trace metals was measured in groundwater samples collected from Malwa region of Punjab, India. The samples were analyzed by using high resolution inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometry (HR-ICP-MS). The results were compared with permissible limits prescribed by various health and environmental protection agencies. The concentrations of trace metals such as Mn, Se, Mo, Cd, Sb and Pb were higher than their respective permissible limits at some sampling sites. The total hazard index (HItotal) (summing the hazard index through ingestion and dermal routes) at all the sampling sites exceeded or nearing unity, indicating the presence of non-carcinogenic health effects from ingestion of groundwater and dermal contact with groundwater. The results reveal that the total excess lifetime cancer risk (ELCRtotal) of metals exposure was in accordance with the acceptable lifetime risks for carcinogens in drinking water.  相似文献   
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Rock–water interaction along with mineral dissolution/ precipitation plays a profound role in the control of fluoride ion concentration within the alluvial groundwater in a part of semi-arid northern India. In the premonsoon season, the alluvial region experiences evaporative processes leading to increase in Na+ ions which through reverse ion exchange processes are adsorbed onto suitable sites within the aquifer matrix in exchange for Ca2+ ion in solution. Increase in Ca2+ ions in solution inhibits fluorite mineral dissolution, thereby controlling premonsoon fluoride ion concentration within alluvial groundwaters (1.40?±?0.5 mg/l). In the postmonsoon season, however, higher average fluoride ion concentration within the alluvial aquifer samples (2.33?±?0.80 mg/l) is observed mainly due to increase in silicate weathering of fluoride-bearing rocks and direct ion exchange processes enabling Ca2+ ion uptake from solution accompanied with the release of fluoride ions. Combined effect of these processes results in average fluoride ion concentration falling above the WHO drinking water permissible limit (1.5 mg/l). Alternatively, the hard rock aquifer samples within the study area have an average fluoride ion concentration falling below the permissible limit in both the seasons.  相似文献   
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Exhumation has been recognised as a key factor in understanding the dynamics of a mountain belt. Normal faulting, erosion and ductile thinning are the three basic mechanisms to exhume the deeper high grade metamorphic rocks to the surface. Convergent orogenic belts are characterised by over-thickening of the crust due to thrusting and folding. The interplay of uplift due to over-thickening of crust and climatic-erosion is the most plausible mechanism of exhumation as suggested by the numerical models and analogue experiments. The analysis of 534 thermo-chronological dates through 1D-thermal numerical model in the Himalaya suggest that the exhumation is dominantly due to erosion but the pattern of erosion is controlled by local tectonic activities in different sector of the Himalaya since Miocene, indicating that tectonic force as the prime mechanism of exhumation in Himalaya.  相似文献   
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