Sampling variance of a T-year flood estimated by curve-fitting

The sampling variance of a T-year flood when estimated using a curve-fitting method results from the errors in hydrologic observations, plotting positions, and model-fitting. This paper develops a method to quantify the contribution of plotting positions to the sampling variance of the T-year flood magnitude. Application of the method to 150 flood-flow data sets of 41 rivers in the People's Republic of China show that the errors due to plotting positions contribute more to the sampling variance than others.     

Landslide hazard zonation using analytical hierarchy process along National Highway-3 in mid Himalayas of Himachal Pradesh,India

Landslide zonation studies emphasize on preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps considering major instability factors contributing to occurrence of landslides. This paper deals with geographic information system-based landslide hazard zonation in mid Himalayas of Himachal Pradesh from Mandi to Kullu by considering nine relevant instability factors to develop the hazard zonation map. Analytical hierarchy process was applied to assign relative weightages over all ranges of instability factors of the slopes in study area. To generate landslide hazard zonation map, layers in geographic information system were created corresponding to each instability factor. An inventory of existing major landslides in the study area was prepared and combined with the landslide hazard zonation map for validation purpose. The validation of the model was made using area under curve technique and reveals good agreement between the produced hazard map and previous landslide inventory with prediction accuracy of 79.08%. The landslide hazard zonation map was classified by natural break classifier into very low hazard, low hazard, moderate hazard, high hazard and very high landslide hazard classes in geographic information system depending upon the frequency of occurrence of landslides in each class. The resultant hazard zonation map shows that 14.30% of the area lies in very high hazard zone followed by 15.97% in high hazard zone. The proposed model provides the best-fit classification using hierarchical approach for the causative factors of landslides having complex structure. The developed hazard zonation map is useful for landslide preparedness, land-use planning, and social-economic and sustainable development of the region.     

Predicting and forecasting flow discharge at sites receiving significant lateral inflow

Two models, one linear and one non‐linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non‐linear model is based on a multilayer feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow‐stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real‐time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow‐stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4‐h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8‐h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The occultation of MKE 31 by Neptune on September 12, 1983

The predicted occultation of the star No. 31 (Mink et al., 1981) by Neptune on September 12, 1983 was observed photoelectrically. Four secondary occultations were recorded before the immersion event.     

Paleomires of Eocene lignites of Bhavnagar,Saurashtra basin (Gujarat), western India: Petrographic implications

The Tertiary basins of Gujarat have always been a potential target for their hydrocarbon resources. The lignite resources of the region have also been an important field of research. The present paper presents the results of the petrological study carried out on the lignites of the Saurashtra basin. For this purpose samples were collected from lower and upper lignite seams from the Surkha lignite mine of Bhavnagar, Saurashtra. These samples were subjected to detailed petrographic analysis (both maceral and microlithotype). The study reveals that these lignites are dominantly composed of huminite group macerals while liptinite and inertinite group macerals occur in subordinate amounts. These lignites have attained a thermal maturity up to 0.28-0.30 percent vitrinite reflectance (VRr) which classifies them as ‘low rank C’ coals. Moreover, Bhavnagar lower lignite seam shows relatively less gelification as compared to the upper seam which suffered relatively more biochemical degradation. These lignites are characterized by high gelification index (GI) and low tissue preservation index (TPI).With the help of petrography based facies models an attempt has been made to reconstruct the environment of the paleomire of these lignites.     

Application of minimum relative entropy theory for streamflow forecasting

This paper develops and applies the minimum relative entropy (MRE) theory with spectral power as a random variable for streamflow forecasting. The MRE theory consists of (1) hypothesizing a prior probability distribution for the random variable, (2) determining the spectral power distribution, (3) extending the autocorrelation function, and (4) doing forecasting. The MRE theory was verified using streamflow data from the Mississippi River watershed. The exponential distribution was chosen as a prior probability in applying the MRE theory by evaluating the historical data of the Mississippi River. If no prior information is given, the MRE theory is equivalent to the Burg entropy (BE) theory. The spectral density obtained by the MRE theory led to higher resolution than did the BE theory. The MRE theory did not miss the largest peak at 1/12th frequency, which is the main periodicity of streamflow of the Mississippi River, but the BE theory sometimes did. The MRE theory was found to be capable of forecasting monthly streamflow with a lead time from 12 to 48 months. The coefficient of determination (r ²) between observed and forecasted stream flows was 0.912 for Upper Mississippi River and was 0.855 for Lower Mississippi River. Both MRE and BE theories were generally more reliable and had longer forecasting lead times than the autoregressive (AR) method. The forecasting lead time for MRE and BE could be as long as 48–60 months, while it was less than 48 months for the AR method. However, BE was comparable to MRE only when observations fitted the AR process well. The MRE theory provided more reliable forecasts than did the BE theory, and the advantage of using MRE is more significant for downstream flows with irregular flow patterns or where the periodicity information is limited. The reliability of monthly streamflow forecasting was the highest for MRE, followed by BE followed by AR.     

Extragalactic sources with one-sided radio structure

A list has been compiled of 49 extragalactic sources, most of them identified with quasars, that appear to have a one-sided (D₂ type) radio structure characterized by a single outer component displaced from a compact central (nuclear) component coincident with the optical object. The observed properties of a subsample of 28 D₂ quasars that have an overall angular size larger than 5 arcsec are briefly discussed and compared with those of normal (D1 type) double quasars. It is found that the central components in most D₂ sources account for more than half the total flux density at high frequencies in contrast to the D₁ quasars which generally have less than 20 per cent of their total flux density in a central component. This makes it very unlikely that D₂ sources are just those D1s in which there is a large intrinsic difference in the flux densities or separations of the two outer components. The observed properties of D₂ sources are easier to understand in the relativistic beaming interpretation in which their axes are inclined at smaller angles with the line of sight compared to D₁ sources.     

Estimation of extreme wave heights using GEOSAT measurements

Satellite technology has yielded a large database of global ocean wave heights which may be used for engineering applications. However, the sampling protocol used by the satellite leads to some difficulties in making use of these data for practical applications. These difficulties and techniques to estimate extreme wave heights using satellite measurements are discussed. Significant wave heights for a 50-year return period are estimated using GEOSAT measurements for several regions around North America. Techniques described here may be used for estimation of wave heights associated with any specified return interval in regions where buoy data are not readily available.     

Nonlinear stability of the triangular libration points for the photo gravitational elliptic restricted problem of three bodies

In the present paper we have studied the stability of the triangular libration points for the doubly photogravitational elliptic restricted problem of three bodies under the presence of resonances as well as under their absence. Here we have found the conditions for stability.