Multivariate modeling of droughts using copulas and meta-heuristic methods

This study investigated the utility of two meta-heuristic algorithms to estimate parameters of copula models and for derivation of drought severity–duration–frequency (S–D–F) curves. Drought is a natural event, which has huge impact on both the society and the natural environment. Drought events are mainly characterized by their severity, duration and intensity. The study adopts standardized precipitation index for drought characterization, and copula method for multivariate risk analysis of droughts. For accurate estimation of copula model parameters, two meta-heuristic methods namely genetic algorithm and particle swarm optimization are applied. The proposed methodology is applied to a case study in Trans Pecos, an arid region in Texas, USA. First, drought severity and duration are separately modeled by various probability distribution functions and then the best fitted models are selected for copula modeling. For modeling the joint dependence of drought variables, different classes of copulas, namely, extreme value copulas, Plackett and Student’s t copulas are employed and their performance is evaluated using standard performance measures. It is found that for the study region, the Gumbel–Hougaard copula is the best fitted copula model as compared to the others and is used for the development of drought S–D–F curves. Results of the study suggest that the meta-heuristic methods have greater utility in copula-based multivariate risk assessment of droughts.     

Application of Archimedean copulas in the analysis of the precipitation extremes: effects of precipitation changes

Due to the influence of changing environment and intensifying human activities, hydrometeorological changes are becoming common. This study derives a bivariate joint distribution of total precipitation and precipitation days with daily precipitation exceeding the 75th percentile and falling below the 25th percentile. Chang points in the precipitation series are detected with more than one statistical method. Results indicate that (1) for P75 and D75, Kendal’s τ does not change significantly even when the existence of change points is taken into account. The selection of a copula is greatly impacted by the existence of a change point; (2) for P25 and D25, τ varies much, while the precipitation variations have no evident effects on the selection of a copula. Therefore, a copula should be selected after the detection of change points to avoid possible bias in results or conclusions. This study is of some merits in terms of risk evaluation based on copula-based probability analysis with available change points.     

Drainage basin peak discharge rating curve

The stream gauge rating curve for a drainage basin can be transformed into a drainage basin peak discharge rating curve that is more stable than the rating curve from which it is derived. The resulting drainage basin peak discharge rating curve can be used to predict peak discharge, identify anomalous discharges caused by channel obstructions or other causes, evaluate the effect of flood retarding structures, and evaluate historical records. The drainage basin peak discharge rating curve is valid for drainage basins of any size, for any discharge up to the time of concentration, and for snowmelt.     

Generic precursors to coastal earthquakes: Inferences from Denali fault earthquake

Recent research has shown evidence of strong coupling between the atmosphere and lithosphere in coastal regions, associating abnormal atmospheric phenomena to the occurrence of strong earthquakes. Surface latent heat flux (SLHF), total column water vapor (CWV), relative humidity (RH) and total ozone column (TOC), analyzed over the epicentral region of the Denali fault earthquake of November 3, 2002, exhibit anomalous behavior that could be related to the earthquake preparatory process and its occurrence. The complementary nature of the parameters provides strong support that the anomalous values were driven by lithospheric processes, rather than other atmospheric phenomena. Due to the wide availability of remote sensing observations of atmospheric parameters, the detection of anomalies can be used to mitigate the earthquake risks.     

Influence of fluids on deep crustal Jabalpur earthquake of 21, May 1997: Geophysical evidences

We present the geophysical evidences on the role of fluids for generation of the lower crustal Jabalpur earthquake (21 May 1997, mb 6.0, Mw 5.8), in the mid-continental fracture zone of the Indian Peninsular Shield. With a focal depth of 35 km, it indicates a high angled (< 62^∘ enclosed with maximum principal stress direction) reverse fault with small component of left-lateral strike slip in the lower crust. The Son-Narmada-Tapti (SONATA) magalineament, during the past two centuries, has experienced about 25 moderate to strong earthquakes; two of which namely the Son Valley (1927, M 6.5) and Jabalpur (21 May 1997) were disastrous. Historical earthquakes and recent earthquake swarms indicate a moderate to high seismicity in SONATA belt that is due to high strain accumulation, flexuring of the crust and neotectonic movements of the faults in the rift zones. By analyzing geophysical parameters such as Zero-Free air-based (ZFb) gravity anomalies (∼ −10 to –30 mGals), heat flow values (45–47 mWm⁻²), magneto-telluric values (1- Ohm m), strain rate (1.5 × 10⁻⁸) and failure stress conditions, we identify plausible causative factors for the occurrence of lower crustal earthquake in this region Fluids, due to dehydration of serpentinite in the lower crust, are suggested to be present in the earthquake source zone. The estimated pore-fluid factor for the Jabalpur earthquake (λ _v ) is 0.95. The diffusion of pore-pressure relaxation, represented as pressure perturbation generated by coseismic stress change was seen in the form of swarm activity two years prior to the Jabalpur earthquake. We suggest the existence of a deep pre-fractured zone with low shear stress (τ = 15–18 MPa) that indicates the presence of fluid filled fractured mafic material in the felsic crust, in critical state of unstable failure condition, and also fluid driven migration of swarm activity before the Jabalpur earthquake.     

Performance evaluation of a reverse-gradient artificial recharge system in basalt aquifers of Maharashtra,India

Hydrogeology Journal - Drinking water scarcity in rural parts of central India in basaltic terrain is common. Most of the rural population depends on groundwater sources located in the fractured...     

Impact of inter- and intra-annual variation in weather parameters on mass balance and equilibrium line altitude of Naradu Glacier (Himachal Pradesh), NW Himalaya,India

Glaciers in Himalaya have been studied with respect to their mass balance to assess their response, if any, to global warming. Naradu glacier in the Baspa Valley of Himachal Pradesh is one such glacier that has been studied in the backdrop of the impact of inter- and intra-annual variation in weather parameters on the health of glaciers. The trends in seasonal and monthly mean temperatures from 1994 to 2003 show an interesting shift of peak summer (late August–September) and winter seasons (February–March). The data also suggest night warming during summer (June, August, and September) and winter (November, January, April), and cooling during peak summer seasons (July) and very cold during winter (December, February, March). The fluctuation in ELA, snout position and surface ablation of Naradu glacier is attributed to variation in albedo of rock debris and valley walls from season to season and year to year.     

GPS derived co-seismic and post-seismic effects of recent earthquakes on peninsular Indian shield and its tectonic implications

Several major earthquakes affected the stable continental Indian peninsular shield in recent past due to the activity of fault movements. This necessitates identifying the active faults in the region for future monitoring. The far field co-seismic and post-seismic effects of recent major earthquakes occurred at Sumatra, 2004, Pakistan, 2007 and Indonesia, 2007 on HYDE and IISc IGS GPS stations were studied by small span GPS analysis. Different type of movement pattern on displacement components ensure the reactivation of existing fault planes signifying an integral relationship between GPS displacement vectors and geological structure of the region.     

Changing structure of the precipitation process during 1960–2005 in Xinjiang, China

Using daily precipitation data spanning 1960–2005 from 51 meteorological stations in Xinjiang province, China, spatial and temporal changes in consecutive maximum wet days in the year, summer, and winter were investigated. Fifteen precipitation extreme indices, which reflect the attributes of consecutive maximum wet days, were defined, and the modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect the tendencies, and changes in the indices were evaluated through linear regression with the F test. Results showed that: (1) two consecutive wet days occurred most frequently in the year and summer, and the fractional contributions and precipitation intensities decreased as the duration increased; in winter, one wet day had the maximum possibility, fractional contributions decreased and intensities increased as the duration increased. (2) The possibility of consecutive wet days which had short durations reduced, while those of long durations increased; annual fractional contributions of short durations decreased, while those of long durations increased; summer and winter fractional contribution of all durations decreased first and then increased; the intensities of all durations increased. (3) The wet tendency was identified in Xinjiang; the wet trend in Southern Xinjiang was more significant than Northern Xinjiang in summer, while in winter the wet tendency in Northern Xinjiang was more pronounced.     

Evaluation of mixing schemes in the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM) in the tropical Indian Ocean

Ocean Dynamics - The performance of three different mixing schemes implemented in the HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model (HYCOM), namely, K-Profile Parameterization (KPP), Goddard Institute of Space...