The impact of shale gas on the costs of climate policy

The use of shale gas is commonly considered as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious climate policy targets. This article explores global and country-specific effects of increasing global shale gas exploitation on the energy markets, on greenhouse gas emissions, and on mitigation costs. The global techno-economic partial equilibrium model POLES (Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems) is employed to compare policies which limit global warming to 2°C and baseline scenarios when the availability of shale gas is either high or low. According to the simulation results, a high availability of shale gas has rather small effects on the costs of meeting climate targets in the medium and long term. In the long term, a higher availability of shale gas increases baseline emissions of greenhouse gases for most countries and for the world, and leads to higher compliance costs for most, but not all, countries. Allowing for global trading of emission certificates does not alter these general results. In sum, these findings cast doubt on shale gas’s potential as a low-cost option for meeting ambitious global climate targets.

POLICY RELEVANCE

Many countries with a large shale gas resource base consider the expansion of local shale gas extraction as an option to reduce their GHG emissions. The findings in this article imply that a higher availability of shale gas in these countries might actually increase emissions and mitigation costs for these countries and also for the world. An increase in shale gas extraction may spur a switch from coal to gas electricity generation, thus lowering emissions. At the global level and for many countries, though, this effect is more than offset by a crowding out of renewable and nuclear energy carriers, and by lower energy prices, leading to higher emissions and higher mitigation costs in turn. These findings would warrant a re-evaluation of the climate strategy in most countries relying on the exploitation of shale gas to meet their climate targets.     

The use of caesium‐137 to estimate agricultural erosion on steep slopes in a tropical watershed

The estimation of erosion and sediment delivery rates in tropical mountain watersheds is difficult and most of the methods widely used for estimating soil erosion over large areas have serious limitations. The ¹³⁷Cs approach has potential for quantifying soil erosion because it can provide retrospective estimates of long‐term (since 1963) net sediment redistribution relatively quickly. Despite its great potential, ¹³⁷Cs has not yet been used in an extensive, reconnaissance level survey of erosion in complex tropical mountain environments. The objective of this study was to examine the applicability of the ¹³⁷Cs method to estimate erosion on steep tropical agricultural lands (23 to 80% slopes) in the Nizao watershed, a humid, tropical mountain area of the Dominican Republic. In this study we (i) examine the variation of ¹³⁷Cs in ten reference sites—eight coffee groves and two forested sites—and (ii) estimate erosion from 14 cultivated fields. The soil pool of ¹³⁷Cs ranged from to 150 to 192 mBq cm⁻² on reference sites with minimal erosion. Variability among reference sites was less than expected for such complex mountain terrain. The variability within coffee and forested reference (average CV=28%) sites was similar to the variability found on grassland and forested reference sites in the temperate zone. The estimated annual soil loss from 14 sampled fields ranged from 6 to 61 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹ with an overall mean of 26 t ha⁻¹ year⁻¹. Overall, the soil erosion estimates found using the ¹³⁷Cs method were much lower than those often assumed for such steep tropical hillsides. These erosion estimates account for soil loss since 1963 only and it seems likely that soil losses may have been much higher in earlier decades immediately after initial forest clearing earlier in the 20th century. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A standard table for predicting equilibrium dissolved oxygen concentrations in Salt Lakes dominated by sodium chloride

An equation of state was used to prepare a standard table for the solubility of oxygen in sodium chloride sobutions at temperatures between 0 and 35°C and for concentrations up to saturation (260 ppt). The uncertainty introduced by linear interpolation between DO values in the table is less than the experimental uncertainty of data which was used to generate the equation of state. Where pressures differ from 1 atm the DO value from the table can be corrected provided the equilibrium vapour pressure of the salt solution is known. Where this is not the case an approximate correction (±0.5 per cent) can be used provided atmospheric pressure is in the range 950 to 1030 mbar. Predictions made using the standard tables will provide near but probably low (<0.2 mg L⁻¹) estimates of DO in salt lakes where sodium chloride is the dominant electrolyte (>70 per cent by mass).     

The effect of metal complexation on hydrogen sulfide transport across the sea-air interface

Hydrogen sulfide dissolved in surface seawater is distributed into free forms which include the volatile neutral H₂S and its conjugate anions, and also into a set of involatile metal complexes. Calculation of the sulfide fraction capable of supporting sea-air flux is sensitive to large uncertainties in complexation equilibrium relationships, both for the sulfides themselves, and for organic ligands competing with them to coordinate dissolved copper. Saturation can be achieved relative to the troposphere if metal interactions are minimized, or if strong sulfide binders are titrated.     

On the ratio of the total to selective absorption

The ratio of total to selective absorbtion,R, has been found to remain constant as dust is processed in clouds from low to high density, through Hii regions and open clusters, and returned to the interstellar medium.R has the same value in dense dust clouds as it has in Hii regions of different ages. Variations inR values obtained from stars in Hii regions may be due to errors in special type classification. Globular cluster diameters show no tendency to increase with distance from the Sun whenR=3.2 is used. Large grains evidently do not exist in the interstellar medium. There is no evidence for neutral extinction in the Galaxy at large.     

Sediment distribution and transport across the continental shelf and slope under idealized wind forcing

Resuspension, transport, and deposition of sediments over the continental shelf and slope are complex processes and there is still a need to understand the underlying spatial and temporal dynamical scales. As a step towards this goal, a two-dimensional slice model (zero gradients in the alongshore direction) based on the primitive flow equations and a range of sediment classes has been developed. The circulation is forced from rest by upwelling or downwelling winds, which are spatially uniform. Results are presented for a range of wind speeds and sediment settling speeds. Upwelling flows carry fine sediments (low settling speeds) far offshore within the surface Ekman layer, and significant deposition eventually occurs beyond the shelf break. However, coarser sediments quickly settle out of the deeper onshore component of the circulation, which can lead to accumulation of bottom sediments within the coastal zone. Downwelling flows are more effective at transporting coarse sediments off the shelf. However, strong vertical mixing at the shelf break ensures that some material is also carried into the surface Ekman layer and returned onshore. The concentrations and settling fluxes of coarse sediments decrease offshore and increase with depth under both upwelling and downwelling conditions, consistent with trends observed in sediment trap data. However, finer sediments decrease with depth (upwelling) or reach a maximum around the depth of the shelf break (downwelling). It is shown that under uniform wind conditions, suspended sediment concentrations and settling fluxes decay offshore over a length scale of order τ_s/ρf|w_s|, where τ_s is the wind stress, ρ the water density, f the Coriolis parameter, and w_s is the sediment settling velocity. This scaling applies to both upwelling and downwelling conditions, provided offshore transport is dominated by wind-driven advection, rather than horizontal diffusion.     

Sedimentary geology of the Columbia River Estuary

A multiyear study of the sedimentary geology of the Columbia River Estuary has provided valuable data regarding sediment distribution, bedform distribution, and suspended sediment distribution on spatial and temporal scales that permit delineation of sedimentary environments and insight into the sedimentary processes that have shaped the estuary. In comparison to other more-intensively studied estuaries in North America, the Columbia River estuary has relatively larger tidal range (maximum semidiurnal range of 3.6m) and large riverflow (6,700m³s⁻¹). Variations in riverflow, sediment supply, and tidal flow occur over a range of time scales, making the study of modern processes, as they relate to long-term effects, particularly challenging.Analyses of more than 2000 bottom-sediment grab samples indicate that the bed material of the estuary varies in a relatively narrow range between 0 and 8 phi (1.0 and 0.0039mm) with an overall mean size of 2.5 phi (0.177mm). Sediment size decreases generally in the downstream direction. Sediments from the upriver channels are coarse (1.5–2.0phi; 0.25–0.35mm) and moderately sorted; sediments in the central estuary show wider range and variation in grain size and sorting (1.75–6.0phi; 0.016–0.3mm). Sediment from the entrance region has a mean size of 2.75phi (0.149mm) and is well sorted. Seasonal changes in sediment size distributions occur and are best delineated by those samples containing more than 10% mud (silt plus clay). Sediments containing a significant fine fraction generally occur only in the peripheral bays and in channels isolated from strong currents. Thin deposits of fine sediments are occasionally found in main channels, and the ephemeral nature of these sediments suggest that they may erode and produce the silty rip-up clasts that appear intermittently in the same regions.The distribution of bedforms of various size and shape has been mapped with side-scan sonar during three seasons and at various tidal stages. The presence of bedforms with wavelengths of 6–8m and alternating slip faces about 40cm high indicates that the deeper portion of the entrance region is dominated by tidally reversing lower flow regime sediment transport. Bedforms in the upper reaches of the estuary are much larger, with heights of up to 3m and wavelengths of up to 100m. These bedforms, and the smaller, superimposed bedforms, imply downstream transport under fluvial conditions. In the central estuary, bedforms in the deep portion of the main channels are oriented upriver while those on the shallow flanks of the channels are oriented seaward. The landward limit of upriver bedform transport varies seasonally in response to riverflow fluctuations.A complex array of sedimentary environments exists in the Columbia River estuary. Each environment is influenced by the relative importance of waves, fluvial currents, and tidal currents, as modified by the presence or absence of estuarine circulation, vegetation, or human activity. The importance of these enviroments to the ecosystem of the estuary is discussed in subsequent papers in this volume.     

Methyl halide hydrolysis rates in natural waters

International regulations are under consideration for methyl bromide because of its high time dependent ozone depletion potential. Geocycling of the species is not well understood, and removal may occur in several types of natural water incuding the oceanic and those in soils. The hydrolysis reaction is a dominant loss pathway in environmental aqueous systems, but rate constants have generally been reported only in distilled water and at greater than room temperature. Here we present measurements in sodium chloride solutions and in seawater in addition to pure water, and at temperatures across the oceanographic range. The reaction could be followed even in solutions near the freezing point because product methanol was monitored in the method of initial rates. Time constants for methyl bromide hydrolysis fall between 10 and 1000 days over the temperatures of the sea, and are always within an order of magnitude of the fastest abiotic destruction mode, chlorination. Activation energies for the two processes are similar so that the ratio of their time scales does not vary with oceanic location. Hydrolysis rate constants are also listed for the closely related compounds methyls iodide and chloride. Solvolysis of the methyl halides in natural waters acts as a source of methanol to the ocean and atmosphere.