A mathematical model to predict the inelastic response of a steel frame: Establishment of parameters from shaking table experiments

The purpose of this research is to use data from experiments to formulate a mathematical model that will predict the non-linear response of a single-storey steel frame to an earthquake input. The process used in this formulation is system identification. In experiments performed on a shaking table, the frame was subjected to two earthquake motions at several intensities. In each case the frame underwent severe inelastic deformation. A computer program which incorporates the concepts of system identification makes use of the recorded data to establish four parameters in a non-linear mathematical model. When different amounts of data are used in the program, parameter sets are established which give the best model response for that amount of test data. The resulting sets of parameters reflect the way in which the properties of the structure change during the excitation. However, when the full durations of the different excitations are used, the sets of parameters are almost identical. For each of these sets of parameters, the correlation of the computed accelerations with the measured is excellent, and the shape of the computed displacement response compares very well with the measured response, although the permanent offset of the displacements is not computed exactly. Suggestions are given on how to overcome this deficiency in the mathematical model.     

CO2 Mitigation by Agriculture: An Overview

Agriculture currently contributes significantly to the increase of CO2 in the atmosphere, primarily through the conversion of native ecosystems to agricultural uses in the tropics. Yet there are major opportunities for mitigation of CO2 and other greenhouse gas emissions through changes in the use and management of agricultural lands. Agricultural mitigation options can be broadly divided into two categories: (I) strategies to maintain and increase stocks of organic C in soils (and biomass), and (ii) reductions in fossil C consumption, including reduced emissions by the agricultural sector itself and through agricultural production of biofuels to substitute for fossil fuels.Reducing the conversion of new land to agriculture in the tropics could substantially reduce CO2 emissions, but this option faces several difficult issues including population increase, land tenure and other socio-political factors in developing countries. The most significant opportunities for reducing tropical land conversions are in the humid tropics and in tropical wetlands. An important linkage is to improve the productivity and sustainability of existing agricultural lands in these regions.Globally, we estimate potential agricultural CO2 mitigation through soil C sequestration to be 0.4-0.9 Pg C y-1, through better management of existing agricultural soils, restoration of degraded lands, permanent "set-asides" of surplus agricultural lands in temperate developed countries and restoration of 10-20% of former wetlands now being used for agriculture. However, soils have a finite capacity to store additional C and therefore any increases in C stocks following changes in management would be largely realized within 50-100 years.Mitigation potential through reducing direct agricultural emissions is modest, 0.01-0.05 Pg C y-1. However, the potential to offset fossil C consumption through the use of biofuels produced by agriculture is substantial, 0.5-1.6 Pg C y-1, mainly through the production of dedicated biofuel crops with a smaller contribution (0.2-0.3 Pg C y-1) from crop residues.Many agricultural mitigation options represent "win-win" situations, in that there are important side benefits, in addition to CO2 mitigation, that could be achieved, e.g. improved soil fertility with higher soil organic matter, protection of lands poorly suited for permanent agriculture, cost saving for fossil fuel inputs and diversification of agricultural production (e.g. biofuels). However, the needs for global food production and farmer/societal acceptability suggest that mitigation technologies should conform to: (I) the enhancement of agricultural production levels in parts of the world where food production and population demand are in delicate balance and (ii) the accrual of additional benefits to the farmer (e.g., reduced labor, reduced or more efficient use of inputs) and society at large.     

Contrasting magmas in metapelitic and metapsammitic migmatites in the Cooma Complex, Australia

Metapelite-derived migmatites (“bedded migmatites”) formed in the low-pressure/high-temperature (LPHT) Cooma Complex, southeastern Australia, contain magma (neosome and leucosome) confined to the metapelitic beds in which they were generated. The metapsammitic beds were more ductile than the metapelitic beds (and the metapelitic parts of graded beds), which underwent fracture and boudinage, thereby providing space for the magma, though some also occurs in axial surface folia. Transitions from bedded to stromatic migmatites can be seen, but the magma mainly remained in the metapelites, even in the most strongly deformed stromatic migmatites. This, together with boudinage and transposition of the leucosome, as well as microstructural evidence of quartz recrystallization, suggest that much or most of the stromatic layering was formed by solid-state deformation. In contrast, magmas (neosomes) formed by partial melting of feldspathic metapsammites at Cooma moved out of their parent rocks, and coalesced into veins and small intrusions of diatexite, because (1) the host rocks deformed more homogeneously, and no interboudin space was made for the melts, and (2) the melt escape threshold was exceeded, probably with the assistance of deformation. Metapsammite melting occurred after solidification of the metapelite-derived magma, and the mobile metapsammite-derived magma (diatexite) disrupted and incorporated fragments of the metapelitic migmatites. The metapsammite-derived magma, together with this solid metapelitic material, locally coalesced into bodies closely resembling the Cooma Granodiorite.     

Enlargement and evolution of a semi‐alluvial creek in response to urbanization

The impact of urbanization on stream channels is of interest due to the growth of cities and the sensitivity of stream morphology and ecology to hydrologic change. Channel enlargement is a commonly observed effect and channel evolution models can help guide management efforts, but the models must be used in the proper geologic and climatic context. Semi‐alluvial channels characterized by a relatively thin alluvial layer over clay till and a convex channel profile in a temperate climate are not represented in currently available models. In this study we: (i) assess channel enlargement; and (ii) propose a channel evolution model for an urban semi‐alluvial creek in Toronto, Canada. The system is 90% developed with an imperviousness of approximately 47%. Channel enlargement is assessed by comparing 50 year old construction surveys, a recent survey of a relic channel, low‐precision surveys of channel change over a 15 year period, and high‐precision surveys over a three year period. The enlargement ratio of the channel since 1958 is 2.6, but could be as high 8.2 in comparison with the pre‐urban channel. When the increase in flow capacity is considered, the enlargement ratio is 1.9 since 1958 and up to 6.0 in comparison with the pre‐urban channel. Channel enlargement continues in the contemporary channel at an estimated rate of 0.23 m²/year. A five stage model is presented to describe channel evolution in the lower reaches. In this model the coarse lag material from glacial sources provides a natural resilience to the bed and incision occurs only after the increased flows from urbanization are combined with higher slopes as a result of channel straightening or avulsions. Further research should be done to assess stream behaviour close to an identified geologic control point. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

An assessment of the climate change impacts on groundwater recharge at a continental scale using a probabilistic approach with an ensemble of GCMs

This study used 16 Global Climate Models and three global warming scenarios to make projections of recharge under a 2050 climate for the entire Australian continent at a 0.05° grid resolution. The results from these 48 future climate variants have been fitted to a probability distribution to enable the results to be summarised and uncertainty quantified. The median results project a reduction in recharge across the west, centre and south of Australia and an increase in recharge across the north and a small area in the east of the continent. The range of results is quite large and for large parts of the continent encompasses both increases and decreases in recharge. This makes it difficult to utilise for water resources management so the results have been analysed with a risk analysis framework; this enables the future projections for groundwater recharge to be communicated to water managers in terms of likelihood and consequence of a reduction in recharge. This highlights an important message for water resource managers that in most areas of Australia they will be making decisions on water allocations under considerable uncertainty as to the direction and magnitude of recharge change under a future climate and that this uncertainty may be irreducible.