Determination of lower and upper bounds of predicted production from history-matched models

We present a method to determine lower and upper bounds to the predicted production or any other economic objective from history-matched reservoir models. The method consists of two steps: 1) performing a traditional computer-assisted history match of a reservoir model with the objective to minimize the mismatch between predicted and observed production data through adjusting the grid block permeability values of the model. 2) performing two optimization exercises to minimize and maximize an economic objective over the remaining field life, for a fixed production strategy, by manipulating the same grid block permeabilities, however without significantly changing the mismatch obtained under step 1. This is accomplished through a hierarchical optimization procedure that limits the solution space of a secondary optimization problem to the (approximate) null space of the primary optimization problem. We applied this procedure to two different reservoir models. We performed a history match based on synthetic data, starting from a uniform prior and using a gradient-based minimization procedure. After history matching, minimization and maximization of the net present value (NPV), using a fixed control strategy, were executed as secondary optimization problems by changing the model parameters while staying close to the null space of the primary optimization problem. In other words, we optimized the secondary objective functions, while requiring that optimality of the primary objective (a good history match) was preserved. This method therefore provides a way to quantify the economic consequences of the well-known problem that history matching is a strongly ill-posed problem. We also investigated how this method can be used as a means to assess the cost-effectiveness of acquiring different data types to reduce the uncertainty in the expected NPV.     

Fluidization of buried mass-wasting deposits in lake sediments and its relevance for paleoseismology: Results from a reflection seismic study of lakes Villarrica and Calafquén (South-Central Chile)

A dense grid of very-high resolution seismic profiles on Lake Villarrica provides a quasi-3D view on intercalated lenses of low-amplitude reflections, which are connected by acoustic wipe-out patches and fractures to an underlying voluminous mass-wasting deposit. The lenses are interpreted as being created by earthquake-triggered liquefaction in this buried mass-wasting deposit and subsequent sediment fluidization and extrusion at the paleo-lake bottom. These sediment volcanoes are mapped in detail. They have a rather uniform circular geometry and show a linear relationship between apparent width and maximum thickness on a seismic section. The largest sediment volcanoes are up to 80 m wide and 1.9 m thick. Their slope angles designate a syn- to post-depositional sagging of most sediment volcanoes. Sediment volcano detection and mapping from nearby Lake Calafquén further strengthen the revealed geometrical relationships. Locally, some of the sediment/fluid escape structures extend to a higher position in the stratigraphy, which points to a polyphase escape process associated with multiple multi-century spaced strong earthquakes. Thickness and morphology of the source layer seem to exert a dominant control in the production of sediment/fluid extrusions. This study shows that reflection seismic profiling allowed recognizing 4 different seismic events in the studied stratigraphic interval, which are evidenced by mass-wasting deposits and/or fluidization features.     

Carbon sources in arc volcanism, with implications for the carbon cycle

New CO₂/³ He data from the East Sunda Arc (Indonesia) confirm earlier observations that arc volcanic gases have higher CO₂/³ He ratios than MOR environments.On average, > 80% of arc volcanic CO₂ is recycled, exogene carbon. Addition of a few percent of carbonate-bearing sediments to the mantle wedge explains much of the carbon abundance andcarbon isotopic data of arc gases, but can not explain the He isotope observations. The CO₂/³He in arc volcanoes is not strongly dependent on the composition of modem trough sediments (e.g. deep sea clays vs carbonate-rich sequences), and calcite veins in the hydrothermally altered subducted slab may provide a contribution to the recycled carbon flux of, arcs. The sum of globally deep-subducted sediment and slab carbon exceeds the estimated arc CO₂ flux, and approximately 3.5 teramole of carbon may return annually to the mantle in convergent zones. The modem combined processes of MOR volcanism, slab alteration, and subduction volcanism do not produce a substantial carbon flux into the exosphere, and rate-changes in ocean floor spreading are unlikely to cause major changes in atmospheric CO₂ as a result of changes in the volcanic CO₂ fluxes. Intense pulses of flood basalt volcanism, however, may alter the CO₂ contents of the atmosphere over the course of a millenium or so, and influence global climate.     

Biogeographic implications of a packrat midden sequence from the Sacramento Mountains, south-central New Mexico

Thirteen packrat (Neotoma spp.) and two porcupine (Erethizon dorsatum) middens from 1555 to 1690 m elevation from the Sacramento Mountains, New Mexico, provide an 18,000-yr vegetation record in the northern Chiuahuan Desert. The vegetation sequence is a mesic, Wisconsin fullglacial (18,000–16,000 yr B.P.) pinyon-juniper-oak woodland; a xeric, early Holocene (ca. 11,000–8000 yr B.P.) juniper-oak woodland; a middle Holocene (ca. 8000-4000 yr B.P.) desert-grassland; and a late Holocene (ca. 4000 yr B.P. to present) Chihuahuan desertscrub. The frequency of spring freezes and summer droughts in the late Wisconsin probably set the northern limits of Pinus edulis and Juniperus monosperma at about 34°N, or 6° south of today's limit. Rising summer tempratures in the early Holocene eliminated pinyon and other mesic woodland plants from the desert lowlands and allowed the woodland to move upslope. At this time pinyon-juniper woodland and pine forest dominated by Pinus ponderosa probably began their spectacular Holocene expansions to the north. Continued warming in the middle Holocene led to very warm summers with strong monsoons, relatively dry, cold winters, and widespread desert-grasslands. Desertscrub communities in the northern Chihuahuan Desert did not develop until the late Holocene when the biseasonal rainfall shifted slightly back toward the winter, catastrophic winter freezes decreased, and droughts in all seasons increased. The creosote bush desertscrub corridor across the Continental Divide between the Chihuahuan and Sonoran deserts was probably connected for the first time since the last interglaciation.     

Hyperpycnal-fed turbidite lobe architecture and recent sedimentary processes: A case study from the Al Batha turbidite system, Oman margin

The main sediment depocenter along the Oman margin is the Al Batha turbidite system that develops in the Gulf of Oman basin. It is directly connected to the wadi Al Batha, and forms a typical sand and mud rich point source system that acts as regional sediment conduit and feeds a ~ 1000 km² sandy lobe.The Al Batha lobe depositional architecture has been investigated in detail using very high-resolution seismic, multibeam echosounder data and sediment cores. Several scales of depositional architecture can be observed. The Al Batha lobe is composed of several depositional units, made of stacked elementary sediment bodies (thinner than 5 m) that are each related to a single flow event. The lobe is connected to the feeder system through a channel-lobe transition zone (CLTZ) that extends on more than 25 km. The lobe can be divided into proximal, middle and distal lobe areas. The proximal lobe is an area of erosion and by-pass with small axial feeder channels that rapidly splay into several small distributaries. They disappear in the mid-lobe area where deposits consist of vertically stacked tabular to lens-shaped sediment bodies, with a lateral continuity that can exceed 10 km. The distal lobe fringe shows a classical facies transition towards thin-bedded basin plain deposits.Sub-surface deposits consist of sandy turbidites and hyperpycnites, interbedded with fine-grained deposits (thin turbidites, hyperpycnites, or hemipelagites). Although these distal deposits are mainly related to flow transformations and concentration evolution, they highlight the importance of flooding of the wadi Al Batha on the sediment transfer to the deep basin. The thick sandy hyperpycnites recovered in such a distal area are also possibly related to the initial properties of gravity flows, in relation to the flooding characteristics of mountainous desert streams.Finally, the Al Batha lobe depositional architecture is typical of sand-rich lobes found within “small”, sand and mud rich turbidite systems fed by mountainous “dirty” rivers. Turbidite sedimentation in the Al Batha system appears to be primarily controlled by the strong climatic and geomorphic forcing parameters (i.e. semi-arid environment with ephemeral, mountainous rivers subjected to flash-flooding).     

Hydrodynamical changes and their consequences on groundwater hydrochemistry induced by three decades of intense exploitation in a Mediterranean Karst system

The Lez karst spring, located in the Mediterranean basin (southern France) supplies drinking water to the metropolitan area of Montpellier (France) since the nineteenth century. Since 1981, an intense pumping is being performed directly in the main conduit with a maximum exploitation flow rate of about 1,700 l/s. To improve the understanding of groundwater origins and circulation dynamic in this karst system, as well as the impact of three decades of intense water exploitation, groundwater samples have been collected during various hydrologic conditions since March 2006. A previous hydrochemical study on the Lez karst system had been carried out before the installation of the pumping plant. This dataset was compared to the present one to identify possible changes on groundwater hydrochemistry. The results of this analysis indicate the existence of historical changes in water hydrogeochemistry and evidence a decrease of the deep compartment participation to the Lez spring outflow. This change in spring water hydrogeochemistry may be attributed to the intense pumping of the karst system and, in the absence of noticeable climatic changes, expresses the direct consequences of anthropogenic forcing on the overall functioning of the aquifer. This study aims to analyze the differences, to understand the water chemistry changes and to better foresee the aquifer evolution for the future.     

Temporal and spatial variations in tectonic subsidence in the Iberian Basin (eastern Spain): inferences from automated forward modelling of high-resolution stratigraphy (Permian–Mesozoic)

By subsidence analysis on eighteen surface sections and 6 wells, which cover large part of the Iberian Basin (E Spain) and which are marked by high-resolution stratigraphy of the Permian, Triassic, Jurassic and Cretaceous, we quantify the complex Permian and Mesozoic tectonic subsidence history of the basin. Backstripping analysis of the available high resolution and high surface density of the database allows to quantify spatial and temporal patterns of tectonically driven subsidence to a much higher degree than previous studies. The sections and wells have also been forward modelled with a new ‘automated' modelling technique, with unlimited number of stretching phases, in order to quantify variations in timing and magnitude of rifting. It is demonstrated that the tectonic subsidence history in the Iberian Basin is characterized by pulsating periods of stretching intermitted by periods of relative tectonic quiescence and thermal subsidence. The number of stretching phases appears to be much larger than found by earlier studies, showing a close match with stretching phases found in other parts of the Iberian Peninsula and allowing a clear correlation with discrete phases in the opening of the Tethys and Atlantic.     

Vital and mortal staining of algae in the presence of chlorine-produced oxidants

Evans blue and neutral red were tested as mortal and vital stains respectively for eight estuarine algal species which had been exposed to chlorine-produced oxidants in a continuous-flow system. The effect of CPO on staining with Evans blue was negligible. High concentrations of CPO affected staining with neutral red in several instances; this is probably due to CPO-induced mortality of test organisms during the exposure or staining period. Neutral red leached fromSkeletonema costatum andOlisthodiscus luteus before the end of the staining period. Staining ofDunaliella tertiolecta with neutral red proceeded more slowly. Evens blue, which was incorporated quickly and remained in the cells, is recommended for live-dead determinations for all species examined exceptNitzschia closterium, for which neutral red should be used. Neither stain was effective onMychonastes ruminatus (Simpson and Van Valkenburg 1978).     

Contribution of Mangroves and Salt Marshes to Nature-Based Mitigation of Coastal Flood Risks in Major Deltas of the World

Nature-based solutions are rapidly gaining interest in the face of global change and increasing flood risks. While assessments of flood risk mitigation by coastal ecosystems are mainly restricted to local scales, our study assesses the contribution of salt marshes and mangroves to nature-based storm surge mitigation in 11 large deltas around the world. We present a relatively simple GIS model that, based on globally available input data, provides an estimation of the tidal wetland’s capacity of risk mitigation at a regional scale. It shows the high potential of nature-based solutions, as tidal wetlands, to provide storm surge mitigation to more than 80% of the flood-exposed land area for 4 of the 11 deltas and to more than 70% of the flood-exposed population for 3 deltas. The magnitude of the nature-based mitigation, estimated as the length of the storm surge pathway crossing through tidal wetlands, was found to be significantly correlated to the total wetland area within a delta. This highlights the importance of conserving extensive continuous tidal wetlands as a nature-based approach to mitigate flood risks. Our analysis further reveals that deltas with limited historical wetland reclamation and therefore large remaining wetlands, such as the Mississippi, the Niger, and part of the Ganges-Brahmaputra deltas, benefit from investing in the conservation of their vast wetlands, while deltas with extensive historical wetland reclamation, such as the Yangtze and Rhine deltas, may improve the sustainability of flood protection programs by combining existing hard engineering with new nature-based solutions through restoration of former wetlands.