Non-extensive statistical physics approach to fault population distribution. A case study from the southern Hellenic arc (Central Crete)

Fault population statistics play a key role in the understanding of any statistical seismicity approach. In the present work a non-extensive statistical physics approach is formulated and tested for the local fault length distribution. The approach is composed of the following parts: (i) Tsallis entropy, S _q , (ii) maximization of the Tsallis entropy under appropriate constrains, and (iii) derivation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the fault length population. This model is tested using fault length data from the Central Crete graben in front of the Hellenic arc and estimated a thermodynamic q parameter equal to 1.16, which supports the conclusion that the fault system in Central Crete graben is a sub-extensive one.     

Aquifer characterization using shallow geophysics in the Keritis Basin of Western Crete, Greece

Effective management of groundwater resources is a well-known problem in several areas around the world. It is especially important to areas suffering from an intrinsic lack of fresh water, such as islands. Detailed study of available aquifers is of particular interest in the highly touristic Greek island of Crete. The increasing water demand makes water resources management extremely important for sustainable development. This is the case in the prefecture of Chania in Western Crete, where there has been a lack of success of many different groundwater management plans that have been produced over the years and submitted for application to water management authority. The inefficiency of the management plans is verified by the continuous water shortage reported every year which forces the public authorities to transfer water from far away sources and wells. Until today there are only geological data as well as information from the borehole logs; therefore, the current work is focused to study in detail the tectonic and hydrogeological characteristics of the Keritis watershed to make a correlation of the available geoenvironmental information with the geophysical data of the study aquifer. Transient electromagnetic soundings were conducted to obtain detailed information about: the tectonic, hydrogeological, hydrolithological, and geometrical characteristics of the aquifer under investigation. In addition, optimum areas of water well drilling were identified to minimize the uncertainty and the total cost (economical, managerial, etc.) of future groundwater surveys.     

Soft-Computing Modelling of Seismicity in the Southern Hellenic Arc

This letter investigates the possible coalition of time intervals and patterns in seismic activity during the preparation process of consecutive sizeable seismic events (i.e., $M_{S} geq 5.9$). During periods of low-level seismic activity, stress processes in the crust accumulate energy at the seismogenic area, while larger seismic events act as a decongesting mechanism that releases considerable amounts of that energy. Monthly mean seismicity rates have been introduced as a tool to monitor this energy management system and to divert this information into an adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system. The purpose of the neuro-fuzzy model is to identify and to simulate the possible relationship between mean seismicity rates and time intervals among consecutive sizeable earthquakes. Successful training of the neuro-fuzzy model results in a real-time online processing mechanism that is capable of estimating the time interval between the latest and the next forthcoming sizeable seismic event.      

Emulation of simulated earthquake catalogues

In earthquake occurrence studies, the so-called q value can be considered both as one of the parameters describing the distribution of interevent times and as an index of non-extensivity. Using simulated datasets, we compare four kinds of estimators, based on principle of maximum entropy (POME), method of moments (MOM), maximum likelihood (MLE), and probability weighted moments (PWM) of the parameters (q and τ ₀) of the distribution of inter-events times, assumed to be a generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), as defined by Tsallis (1988) in the frame of non-extensive statistical physics. We then propose to use the unbiased version of PWM estimators to compute the q value for the distribution of inter-event times in a realistic earthquake catalogue simulated according to the epidemic type aftershock sequence (ETAS) model. Finally, we use these findings to build a statistical emulator of the q values of ETAS model. We employ treed Gaussian processes to obtain partitions of the parameter space so that the resulting model respects sharp changes in physical behaviour. The emulator is used to understand the joint effects of input parameters on the q value, exploring the relationship between ETAS model formulation and distribution of inter-event times.