Street-scale storm surge load impact assessment using fine-resolution numerical modelling: a case study from Nemuro,Japan

Natural Hazards - Due to gradual sea level rise and changes in the climate system, coastal vulnerability to storm surge hazards is expected to increase in some areas. Studies regarding the effect...     

Validation of a soil water balance model using soil water content and pressure head data

The validation of soil water balance models and the evaluation of the quality of the model predictions at field‐scale require time‐series of in situ measured model outputs. In our study, we have validated such a model using a 6‐year period with time‐series of automatically recorded, daily volumetric soil water contents measured with the time‐domain reflectometry with intelligent microelements (TRIME) method and daily pressure heads measured with tensiometers. The comparisons of simulated with measured soil water contents and pressure heads were analysed using the modelling efficiency index (IA) and the square root of the mean square error (RMSE) in order to evaluate the prediction quality of the model. In our study, IA and RMSE, obtained either from the comparison of simulated with measured soil water contents or the comparison of calculated with observed pressure heads, in some cases lead to different results regarding the evaluation of the simulation quality of the soil water balance model. For example, a good fit between simulated and observed soil water contents does not necessarily result in a comparably good fit between the corresponding calculated and measured pressure heads. Therefore, a combined use of both measurement techniques, which takes into account their respective advantages and disadvantages, gives a more complete overview on the simulation quality of the soil water balance model than the single use of one of those techniques. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The two-step shape and timing of the last deglaciation in Antarctica

The two-step character of the last deglaciation is well recognized in Western Europe, in Greenland and in the North Atlantic. For example, in Greenland, a gradual temperature decrease started at the Bölling (B) around 14.5 ky BP, spanned through the Alleröd (A) and was followed by the cold Younger Dryas (YD) event which terminated abruptly around 11.5 ky BP. Recent results suggest that this BA/YD sequence may have extended throughout all the Northern Hemisphere but the evidence of a late transition cooling is still poor for the Southern Hemisphere. Here we present a detailed isotopic record analyzed in a new ice core drilled at Dome B in East Antarctica that fully demonstrates the existence of an Antarctic cold reversal (ACR). These results suggest that the two-step shape of the last deglaciation has a worldwide character but they also point to noticeable interhemispheric differences. Thus, the coldest part of the ACR, which shows a temperature drop about three times weaker than that recorded during the YD in Greenland, may have preceded the YD. Antarctica did not experienced abrupt changes and the two warming periods started there before they started in Greenland. The links between Southern and Northern Hemisphere climates throughout this period are discussed in the light of additional information derived from the Antarctic dust record.     

Compositional and thermal convection in magma chambers

Magma chambers cool and crystallize at a rate determined by the heat flux from the chamber. The heat is lost predominantly through the roof, whereas crystallization takes place mainly at the floor. Both processes provide destabilizing buoyancy fluxes which drive highly unsteady, chaotic convection in the magma. Even at the lowest cooling rates the thermal Rayleigh number Ra is found to be extremely large for both mafic and granitic magmas. Since the compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are directly related it can be shown that the compositional Rayleigh number Rs (and therefore a total Rayleigh number) is very much greater than Ra. In the case of basaltic melt crystallizing olivine Rs is up to 10⁶ times greater than Ra. However compositional and thermal buoyancy fluxes are roughly equal. Therefore thermal and compositional density gradients contribute equally to convection velocities in the interior of the magma. Effects of thermal buoyancy generated by latent heat release at the floor are included.The latent heat boundary layer at the floor of a basaltic chamber is shown to be of the order of 1 m thick with very low thermal gradients whereas the compositional boundary layer is about 1 cm thick with large compositional gradients. As a consequence, the variation in the degree of supercooling in front of the crystal-liquid interface is dominated by compositional effects. The habit and composition of the growing crystals is also controlled by the nature of the compositional boundary layer. Elongate crystals are predicted to form when the thickness of the compositional boundary layer is small compared with the crystal size (as in laboratory experiments with aqueous solutions). In contrast, equant crystals form when the boundary layer is thicker than the crystals (as in most magma chambers). Instability of the boundary layer in the latter case gives rise to zoning within crystals. Diffusion of compatible trace elements through the boundary layer can also explain an inverse correlation, observed in layered intrusions, between Ni concentration in olivine and the proportion of Ni-bearing phases in the crystallizing assemblage.     

Initiation and growth of salt-based thrust belts on passive margins: results from physical models

Scaled sandbox models simulated primary controls on the kinematics of the early structural evolution of salt‐detached, gravity‐driven thrust belts on passive margins. Models had a neutral‐density, brittle overburden overlying a viscous décollement layer. Deformation created linked extension–translation–shortening systems. The location of initial brittle failure of the overburden was sensitive to perturbations at the base of the salt. Salt pinch‐out determined the seaward limit of the thrust belt. The thrust belts were dominated by pop‐up structures or detachment folds cut by break thrusts. Pop‐ups were separated by flat‐bottomed synclines that were partially overthrust. Above a uniformly dipping basement, thrusts initiated at the salt pinch‐out then consistently broke landward. In contrast, thrust belts above a seaward‐flattening hinged basement nucleated above the hinge and then spread both seaward and landward. The seaward‐dipping taper of these thrust belts was much lower than typical, frictional, Coulomb‐wedge models. Towards the salt pinch‐out, frictional resistance increased, thrusts verged strongly seawards and the dip of the taper reversed as the leading thrust overrode this pinch‐out. We attribute the geometry of these thrust belts to several causes. (1) Low friction of the basal décollement favours near‐symmetric pop‐ups. (2) Mobile salt migrates away from local loads created by overthrusting, which reduces the seaward taper of the thrust belt. (3) In this gravity‐driven system, shortening quickly spreads to form wide thrust belts, in which most of the strain overlapped in time.