VELOCITY DISPERSION OF SEISMIC WAVES*

In well velocity surveys made to calibrate Sonic (CV) Logs the calibration survey uses frequencies around 50 Hz whereas the Sonic Logging tool uses frequencies around 20 kHz. There thus exists the possibility of making a direct measure of velocity dispersion. In any one survey the disturbing factors, both instrumental and operational, will often mask any dispersive effect that might exist. Consequently this paper reports on a statistical analysis of the velocity differences resulting from calibration surveys and Sonic logs. Only Borehole Compensated Sonic Logs were used. Four areas were investigated: the North Sea, Abu Dhabi, Libya and Alaska. After rejecting logs and calibration records which were obviously in error there remained 424000 feet (about 130 km) of usable log distributed throughout 66 wells. The four areas were analysed separately and in no case was the estimated dispersion significantly different from zero. However, the mean values did correlate with lithology from (? 0.17 ± 0.18)% for the essentially carbonate section in Abu Dhabi to (+ 0.45 ± 0.25)% for the sand-shale section in Alaska, a positive sign meaning that the higher frequencies travelled faster. Except for Alaska the calibration surveys were made with a wall-clamp geophone, and for these areas amplitude measurements were made. After suitable corrections estimates of the absorption parameter Q were obtained. These varied from 20 to 200 with mean values of 63 for Libya, 70 for Abu Dhabi and 88 for the North Sea (excluding the Tertiary). If, as is usually assumed, the absorption mechanism is linear and is described by a Q which is independent of frequency, then these values would necessarily imply dispersion of several percent. As instanced above no such dispersion was observed. It is possible that the expected dispersion was compensated for by invasion of the mud filtrate into the borehole walls, but it is more likely that the absorption mechanism was substantially non-linear.     

Comment on the “Analysis of the State of Stress During the 1997 Earthquake Swarm in Western Bohemia” by A. Slancová and J. Horálek (Studia geoph. et geod. 44(2000), 272–291)

Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica -     

The neotectonics and geodynamics of the Lower Oka Region (East European Craton)

The neotectonic structures of the Lower Oka (Nizhneokskii) Region formed under different geodynamic conditions. This is attested by the morphology, orientation, internal structure, and jointing of the structures. The Oka-Tsna arc formed under the effect of tension from an inner source on the one hand and stress from the Alpian belt on the other hand. The latitudinally-oriented structures of the northwestern slope of the Tokmovo arc emerged as a result of uplift and widening. Both types of structure are combined within the limits of the Oka-Murom trough, which is a geodynamically active zone.     

Lunar Gravity-Assist Maneuver As a Way of Reducing the Orbit Amplitude in the Spectrum–Röntgen–Gamma Project

Spectrum–Röntgen–Gamma (SRG) is a space observatory designed to observe astrophysical objects in the X-ray range of the electromagnetic spectrum. SRG is planned to be launched in 2019 by a Proton-M launch vehicle with a DM3 upper stage. The spacecraft will be delivered to an orbit around the Sun–Earth collinear libration point L2 located at a distance of ~1.5 million km from the Earth. Although the SRG launch scheme has already been determined at present, in this paper we consider an alternative spacecraft transfer scenario using a lunar gravity-assist maneuver. The proposed scenario allows a oneimpulse transfer from a low Earth orbit to a small-amplitude orbit around the libration point to be performed while fulfilling the technical constraints and the scientific requirements of the mission.     

Formalization of assessing radioactive waste burial site seismic regime parameters from seismological and geological data

A model is proposed that shows the relation of the block structure of the crust and earthquake sources (Sadovskii, 1979; Rodionov, 1979, 1984, 1994; Bugaev, 1999, 2011, 2014, 2015). The model can formalize how to assess the prediction of seismic regime parameters depending on the elastic limit and conditions and rate of deformation of the Earth’s crust. The spent nuclear fuel repository site in Olkiluoto (Finland) and a site in the area of the Krasnoyarsk Mining and Chemical Combine are considered as examples. It is demonstrated that the parameters of the prediction graphs limit the location of the points of magnitude repeatability graphs calculated for a site based on samples of earthquakes in the area according to different authors. This makes it possible to recommend predictive assessment of seismic regime parameters for stability monitoring of the seismic regime and safety analysis of a geological environment’s insulation properties for waste sites from the results of seismological monitoring and high-precision observations of modern movements of the Earth’s crust.     

Observational study of the seasonality of the submonthly and intraseasonal signal over the tropics

Summary Atmospheric variability in outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) and tropospheric relative vorticity (VOR) over the South American region was studied from 1979 to 1996 using the complex Morlet wavelet function. The analyses focus on spatial variation in intraseasonal and submonthly scales. Scalograms were used to measure submonthly intraseasonal oscillations in convection, which were found to be predominant in the tropical regions. However, 7-day and 15-day oscillations were observed at tropical and extratropical latitudes in spring and winter, indicating that transient disturbances play a more prominent role. Regarding VOR, tropical energy intensities were highest in the spring and summer, whereas subtropical and extratropical energy intensities were highest in the autumn and winter. The dynamics of the 25-day and 45-day VOR oscillations indicates a possible correlation with Rossby waves over the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, mainly during the summer. During winter, the 7-day and 15-day VOR oscillations are more frequent at higher latitudes and are enhanced along storm tracks. It was also observed that convection amplitudes in the regions of maximum intensity change appreciably from year to year and from season to season, showing that the behavior of the submonthly and intraseasonal oscillations is nonperiodic and correlates strongly with El Ni?o/Southern Oscillation years. These results confirm the efficiency of wavelet analysis for time-scale studies of atmospheric variability.     

Application of saddlepoint approximation in reliability analysis of dynamic systems

The application of the saddlepoint approximation to reliability analysis of dynamic systems is investigated. The failure event in reliability problems is formulated as the exceedance of a single performance variable over a prescribed threshold level. The saddlepoint approximation technique provides a choice to estimate the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance variable. The failure probability is obtained as the value of the complement CDF at a specif ied threshold. The method requires computing the saddlepoint from a simple algebraic equation that depends on the cumulant generating function (CGF) of the performance variable. A method for calculating the saddlepoint using random samples of the performance variable is presented. The applicable region of the saddlepoint approximation is discussed in detail. A 10-story shear building model with white noise excitation illustrates the accuracy and effi ciency of the proposed methodology.