Stochastic evaluation of simple pairing approaches to reconstruct incomplete rainfall time series

Two-station pairing approaches are routinely used to infill missing information in incomplete rainfall databases. We evaluated the performance of three simple methodologies to reconstruct incomplete time series in presence of variable nonlinear correlation between data pairs. Nonlinearity stems from the statistics describing the marginal peak-over-threshold (POT) values of rainfall events. A Monte Carlo analysis was developed to quantitatively assess expected errors from the use of chronological pairing (CP) with linear and nonlinear regression and frequency pairing (FP). CP is based on a priori selection of regression functions, while FP is based on matching the probability of non-exceedance of an event from one time series with the probability of non-exceedance of a similar event from another time series. We adopted a generalized Pareto (GP) model to describe POT events, and a t-copula algorithm to generate reference nonlinearly correlated pairs of random temporal distributions distributed according with the GP model. The results suggest that the optimal methodology strongly depends on GP statistics. In general, CP seems to provide the lowest errors when GP statistics were similar and correlation became linear; we found that a power-2 function performs well for the selected statistics when the number of missing points is limited. FP outperforms the other methods when POT statistics are different and variables are markedly nonlinearly correlated. Ensemble-based results seem to be supported by the analysis of observed precipitation at two real-world gauge stations.     

On Geoseismic Noise and Helioseismic Oscillations

Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth - Abstract—In their paper published in Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, G.A. Sobolev et al. (2020) discussed the results of their study. Firstly,...     

Observations of vertical ground accelerations exceeding gravity during the 1997 Umbria-Marche (central Italy) earthquakes

We found extensive evidence that the vertical ground accelerations produced during the largest shock (M = 6.0) of the 1997 Umbria-Marche earthquake sequence exceeded 1g in two areas close to the heavily-damaged villages of Annifo and Colle Croce. This evidence comes from the striking observation of thousands of freshly fractured and broken rocks and stones in these areas. Some of the broken stones lie isolated on soft detritic soil while others had been previously piled up, probably a long time agoto clear the fields for farming. The freshness of the cuts and fractures and the consistency of the observations for thousands of rocks and stones in these areas indicate that these rocks were thrown upwards during the earthquake, with breakage occurring at the time of impact. Ground motion calculations consistent with the static deformation inferred from GPS and interferometry data, show that the broken stones and rocks are found in the zone where the strongest shaking took place during the earthquake and that most of the shaking there was vertical.     

Transport of three herbicides in ground water at Twin Lake test site,Chalk River,Ontario, Canada

A field tracer test performed under natural flow conditions at the Twin Lake test site, Chalk River Laboratories of the Atomic Energy of Canada Ltd. in Chalk River, Ontario, Canada, using tritium and three herbicides (Chlortoluron, Terbuthylazine, and Pendimethalin) was interpreted using the dispersion equation with a combined reaction model. The reaction model couples an instantaneous equilibrium reaction governed by a linear adsorption isotherm with a reversible or irreversible kinetic reaction of the first order, and decay. An improved interpretation method consists of a simultaneous fitting of theoretical concentration and mass-recovery curves to the experimental data, which leads to a more reliable determining of reaction models and improves the accuracy of fitting. Tritium served as the reference tracer to determine the flow velocity, dispersivity, and the recovery of the herbicides. Chlortoluron was slightly delayed by equilibrium exchange with strongly reduced concentration due to an irreversible kinetic reaction and/or decay. Terbuthilazine was slightly delayed by equilibrium exchange, with strongly reduced concentration due to a reversible kinetic reaction with some influence of decay. A strong equilibrium reaction and a strong reversible kinetic reaction without degradation governed the transport of Pendimethalin, reducing considerably its concentration. The results obtained show that simulations based only on Kd and decay constant, especially if these parameters are found in the laboratory, may considerably differ from those performed with reaction parameters determined in properly performed field tests. The dominant reaction types, and the values of parameters found in the study, supply useful information on the transport of the investigated herbicides in sandy aquifers under natural flow conditions.     

Ambient Changes in Tracer Concentrations from a Multilevel Monitoring System in Basalt

Starting in 2008, a 4‐year tracer study was conducted to evaluate ambient changes in groundwater concentrations of a 1,3,6‐naphthalene trisulfonate tracer that was added to drill water. Samples were collected under open borehole conditions and after installing a multilevel groundwater monitoring system completed with 11 discrete monitoring zones within dense and fractured basalt and sediment layers in the eastern Snake River aquifer. The study was done in cooperation with the U.S. Department of Energy to test whether ambient fracture flow conditions were sufficient to remove the effects of injected drill water prior to sample collection. Results from thief samples indicated that the tracer was present in minor concentrations 28 days after coring, but was not present 6 months after coring or 7 days after reaming the borehole. Results from sampling the multilevel monitoring system indicated that small concentrations of the tracer remained in 5 of 10 zones during some period after installation. All concentrations were several orders of magnitude lower than the initial concentrations in the drill water. The ports that had remnant concentrations of the tracer were either located near sediment layers or were located in dense basalt, which suggests limited groundwater flow near these ports. The ports completed in well‐fractured and vesicular basalt had no detectable concentrations.     

Linking Tarim Basin sea retreat (west China) and Asian aridification in the late Eocene

The Tarim Basin in western China formed the easternmost margin of a shallow epicontinental sea that extended across Eurasia and was well connected to the western Tethys during the Paleogene. Climate modelling studies suggest that the westward retreat of this sea from Central Asia may have been as important as the Tibetan Plateau uplift in forcing aridification and monsoon intensification in the Asian continental interior due to the redistribution of the land‐sea thermal contrast. However, testing of this hypothesis is hindered by poor constraints on the timing and precise palaeogeographic dynamics of the retreat. Here, we present an improved integrated bio‐ and magnetostratigraphic chronological framework of the previously studied marine to continental transition in the southwest Tarim Basin along the Pamir and West Kunlun Shan, allowing us to better constrain its timing, cause and palaeoenvironmental impact. The sea retreat is assigned a latest Lutetian–earliest Bartonian age (ca. 41 Ma; correlation of the last marine sediments to calcareous nannofossil Zone CP14 and correlation of the first continental red beds to the base of magnetochron C18r). Higher up in the continental deposits, a major hiatus includes the Eocene–Oligocene transition (ca. 34 Ma). This suggests the Tarim Basin was hydrologically connected to the Tethyan marine Realm until at least the earliest Oligocene and had not yet been closed by uplift of the Pamir–Kunlun orogenic system. The westward sea retreat at ca. 41 Ma and the disconformity at the Eocene–Oligocene transition are both time‐equivalent with reported Asian aridification steps, suggesting that, consistent with climate modelling results, the sea acted as an important moisture source for the Asian continental interior.     

T-XCO2 stability relations and phase equilibria of a calcic carbonate scapolite

At a total pressure of 5 kb, calcic, Cl-free scapolite (Me₈₃) is stable relative to plagioclase-bearing assemblages at $\text{T ≧ 625°C}$, . With decreasing temperature, scapolite breaks down to plagioclase + calcite. Scapolite is replaced by plagioclase + grossular + cancrinite + CO₂ in the presence of H₂O-rich fluids. The stable coexistence of scapolite and calcite, an assemblage typical of most natural occurrences of calcic scapolite, is limited by the reaction: scapolite + calcite → grossular + cancrinite + CO₂, which occurs at 750°C, X_CO2 = 0.46; 700°C, X_CO2 = 0.33; 650°C, X_CO2 = 0.18, for the chosen bulk composition.Generalization of the experimental results to encompass the complete range of fully carbonated scapolite compositions indicates that mizzonite (Me₇₅) has the largest T-X_CO2 stability field. For scapolite more calcic than mizzonite, stable growth is restricted to conditions of increasingly higher temperature and X_CO2.The experimental results are consistent with various petrologic features of scapolite-bearing rocks, particularly scapolite-clinopyroxene granulites, and indicate that such rocks were formed in the presence of CO₂-rich fluids.