The Hadley circulation: assessing NCEP/NCAR reanalysis and sparse in-situ estimates

 We present a comparison of the zonal mean meridional circulations derived from monthly in situ data (i.e. radiosondes and ship reports) and from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis product. To facilitate the interpretation of the results, a third estimate of the mean meridional circulation is produced by subsampling the reanalysis at the locations where radiosonde and surface ship data are available for the in situ calculation. This third estimate, known as the subsampled estimate, is compared to the complete reanalysis estimate to assess biases in conventional, in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation associated with the sparseness of the data sources (i.e., radiosonde network). The subsampled estimate is also compared to the in situ estimate to assess the biases introduced into the reanalysis product by the numerical model, initialization process and/or indirect data sources such as satellite retrievals. The comparisons suggest that a number of qualitative differences between the in situ and reanalysis estimates are mainly associated with the sparse sampling and simplified interpolation schemes associated with in situ estimates. These differences include: (1) a southern Hadley cell that consistently extends up to 200 hPa in the reanalysis, whereas the bulk of the circulation for the in situ and subsampled estimates tends to be confined to the lower half of the troposphere, (2) more well-defined and consistent poleward limits of the Hadley cells in the reanalysis compared to the in-situ and subsampled estimates, and (3) considerably less variability in magnitude and latitudinal extent of the Ferrel cells and southern polar cell exhibited in the reanalysis estimate compared to the in situ and subsampled estimates. Quantitative comparison shows that the subsampled estimate, relative to the reanalysis estimate, produces a stronger northern Hadley cell (∼20%), a weaker southern Hadley cell (∼20–60%), and weaker Ferrel cells in both hemispheres. These differences stem from poorly measured oceanic regions which necessitate significant interpolation over broad regions. Moreover, they help to pinpoint specific shortcomings in the present and previous in situ estimates of the Hadley circulation. Comparisons between the subsampled and in situ estimates suggest that the subsampled estimate produces a slightly stronger Hadley circulation in both hemispheres, with the relative differences in some seasons as large as 20–30%. 6These differences suggest that the mean meridional circulation associated with the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis is more energetic than observations suggest. Examination of ENSO-related changes to the Hadley circulation suggest that the in situ and subsampled estimates significantly overestimate the effects of ENSO on the Hadley circulation due to the reliance on sparsely distributed data. While all three estimates capture the large-scale region of low-level equatorial convergence near the dateline that occurs during El Nino, the in situ and subsampled estimates fail to effectively reproduce the large-scale areas of equatorial mass divergence to the west and east of this convergence area, leading to an overestimate of the effects of ENSO on the zonal mean circulation. Received: 16 September 1998 / Accepted: 22 April 1999     

Bol’shakovskii gabbro massif as a fragment of the Southern Urals zone of Early Carboniferous rift

In this paper new data on the absolute age and geochemistry of rocks of the Bol’shakovskii massif, situated in the central part of the Aramil-Sukhteli zone of the Southern Urals, are given. The obtained values are evidence for its Visean age. By the geological-petrographic and petro- and geochemical features, the rocks of the Bol’shakovskii complex differ sharply from ophiolite-type gabbroids, although they reveal a substantial similarity with the gabbro-granite formation of the Magnitogorsk megazone. The Bol’shakovskii massif is situated in the northern branch of the South Urals zone of Early Carboniferous riftogenesis; and its formation is most probably associated with magmatism events during the rift regime in the died_out island arc.     

Upgrading the GT-2A aerogravimetric complex for airborne gravity measurements in the Arctic

The methodical solutions for improving the GT-2A aerogravimetric complexes by incorporating the Javad Quattro-G3D GPS receiver connected to four antennas spaced in two orthogonal planes are discussed. The operation features of the advanced aerogravimetric complex are described and the results of its application during the testing flight to 78° N latitude are presented. The anomalous gravity obtained in the testing flight is compared with the EGM2008 and EIGEN-6C models.     

Botswana gravity reference net

Gravity reference stations for the National Gravity Survey of Botswana have been established at twenty-three sites throughout the country in a net linked to existing bases in South Africa, Kenya and Zambia with an internal accuracy of better than 0.5 gravity units (one gravity unit, gu, equals an acceleration of 10⁻⁶ m.s⁻²). The field procedure and reduction of data are explained and a list is given of the gravity values.     

The extreme diversity of uranium deposits

Most available classifications of uranium deposits are based on the characteristics of the host rocks or on the morphology of the ore deposits. The aim of the present paper is to propose the basis for a genetic classification of these deposits. After a short introduction on the geochemical behavior of uranium in fluids and silicate melts and on the main uranium fractionation mechanisms operating in uranium-rich peraluminous, metaluminous, and peralkaline melts, the most recent metallogenic models of the main types of uranium deposits are shortly reviewed.     

Probabilistic life cycle analysis model for evaluating electric power infrastructure risk mitigation investments

One effect of climate change may be increased hurricane frequency or intensity due to changes in atmospheric and geoclimatic factors. It has been hypothesized that wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening measures may improve infrastructure resilience to increased hurricane frequency and intensity. This paper describes a parametric decision model used to assess the tradeoffs between wetland restoration and infrastructure hardening for electric power networks. We employ a hybrid economic input–output life-cycle analysis (EIO-LCA) model to capture: construction costs and life-cycle emissions for transitioning from the current electric power network configuration to a hardened network configuration; construction costs and life-cycle emissions associated with wetland restoration; and the intrinsic value of wetland restoration. Uncertainty is accounted for probabilistically through a Monte Carlo hurricane simulation model and parametric sensitivity analysis for the number of hurricanes expected to impact the project area during the project cycle and the rate of wetland storm surge attenuation. Our analysis robustly indicates that wetland restoration and undergrounding of electric power network infrastructure is not preferred to the “do-nothing” option of keeping all power lines overhead without wetland protection. However, we suggest a few items for future investigation. For example, our results suggest that, for the small case study developed, synergistic benefits of simultaneously hardening infrastructure and restoring wetlands may be limited, although research using a larger test bed while integrating additional costs may find an enhanced value of wetland restoration for disaster loss mitigation.     

Nowcasting with INCA During SNOW-V10

A Central-European nowcasting system which has been developed for use in mountainous terrain is tested in the Whistler/Vancouver area as part of the SNOW-V10 experiment. The integrated nowcasting through comprehensive analysis system provides hourly updated gridded forecasts of temperature, humidity, and wind, as well as precipitation forecasts which are updated every 15 min. It is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) output and real-time surface weather station and radar data. Verification of temperature, relative humidity, and wind against surface stations shows that forecast errors are significantly reduced in the nowcasting range compared to those of the driving NWP model. The main contribution to the improvement comes from the implicit bias correction due to use of the latest observations. Relative humidity shows the longest lasting effect, with >50 % reduction of mean absolute error up to +4 h. For temperature and wind speed this percentage is reached after +2 and +3 h, respectively. Two cases of precipitation nowcasting are discussed and verified qualitatively.     

The importance of reduced meat and dairy consumption for meeting stringent climate change targets

For agriculture, there are three major options for mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions: 1) productivity improvements, particularly in the livestock sector; 2) dedicated technical mitigation measures; and 3) human dietary changes. The aim of the paper is to estimate long-term agricultural GHG emissions, under different mitigation scenarios, and to relate them to the emissions space compatible with the 2 °C temperature target. Our estimates include emissions up to 2070 from agricultural soils, manure management, enteric fermentation and paddy rice fields, and are based on IPCC Tier 2 methodology. We find that baseline agricultural CO₂-equivalent emissions (using Global Warming Potentials with a 100 year time horizon) will be approximately 13 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070, compared to 7.1 Gton CO₂eq/year 2000. However, if faster growth in livestock productivity is combined with dedicated technical mitigation measures, emissions may be kept to 7.7 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. If structural changes in human diets are included, emissions may be reduced further, to 3–5 Gton CO₂eq/year in 2070. The total annual emissions for meeting the 2 °C target with a chance above 50 % is in the order of 13 Gton CO₂eq/year or less in 2070, for all sectors combined. We conclude that reduced ruminant meat and dairy consumption will be indispensable for reaching the 2 °C target with a high probability, unless unprecedented advances in technology take place.     

Automated Image Registration for Hydrologic Change Detection in the Lake-Rich Arctic

Multitemporal remote sensing provides a unique tool to track lake dynamics at the pan-Arctic scale but requires precise registration of thousands of satellite images. This is a challenging task owing to a dearth of stable features to be used as tie points [(TPs), i.e., control points] in the dynamic landscapes. This letter develops an automated method to precisely register images in the lake-rich Arctic. The core premise of the method is that the centers of lakes are generally stable even if their shorelines are not. The proposed procedures first extract lakes in multitemporal satellite images, derive lake centroids and match them between images, and then use the centroids of stable lakes as TPs for image registration. The results show that this approach can achieve subpixel registration accuracy, outcompeting the conventional manual methods in both efficiency and accuracy. The proposed method is fully automated and represents a feasible way to register images for lake change detection at the pan-Arctic scale.      

Numerical modeling of the Rideau Valley Watershed

Using the Mike11 modeling system by the Danish Hydraulic Institute, a detailed model of the Rideau Valley Watershed was constructed. It includes 532 km of rivers and lakes, 106 basins, 122 bridges and culverts, and 20 water control structures. The model was calibrated using measured streamflow data for a time period of 5 years; additional 5 years of data was used for validation. Various methods, both qualitative and quantitative, were used to evaluate the model performance. It was found that the model can simulate the hydrological response with a reasonable to high degree of accuracy. This model is now being used for various watershed management purposes, including flood forecasting, dam safety assessment, quantification of wetland functions, and derivation of design flows.