Dynamic-Stochastic Modeling of Natural Processes

We propose a method for the construction of dynamic-stochastic models of natural systems based on the assimilation of the data of observations in the prognostic equations of coupled processes. In these models, the method of adaptive balance of causes is used to deduce evolutionary equations of the analyzed processes and assimilate the data of observations in these equations. The deduced general equations are considered for an example of a marine ecosystem characterized by the development of four coupled processes. It is shown that the optimal prediction of these processes requires the solution of 11 systems of equations with simultaneous adaptation of prognostic estimates and the coefficients of the models to the data of observations. A numerical simulation experiment explaining the algorithm of the proposed method of modeling is considered. A conclusion is made that the application of this method in the geoinformation systems of monitoring of the environment is quite promising.__________Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 6, pp. 31–42, November–December, 2004.     

The next few years of the ICES Journal of Marine Science

This issue marks a change in the editorial team of the ICESJournal of Marine Science, in that we have bid farewell to ourformer Editor-in-Chief, Niels Daan, after six years of sterlingservice, and to our Elsevier Publishing Editor, Andrew Richford,after an even longer period of years. Both deserve credit fortheir energy and vision that has left us the legacy of a journalas widely read and cited as the ICES Journal now is, but theyleave a gap that will be a huge challenge for us to meet. However,in my new capacity as Editor-in-Chief and in Els Bosma's capacityas Elsevier's Publishing Editor, I     

Effect of ice cover on oscillations of fluid in a closed basin

Within the framework of the linear theory of long waves, the problem of the effect of ice cover on seiche oscillations of fluid in a two-dimensional constant-depth basin is solved. The eigenfrequencies and eigenfunctions of seiche oscillations are obtained for different boundary conditions at ice edges: rigid coupling and free edges. The forced oscillations of fluid and ice under the action of a moving disturbance of atmospheric pressure are investigated. The change in the stress of ice bending is considered and it is shown that the coast ice can be broken.     

Mineralogical and geochemical features of authigenic carbonates on seepings and hydrothermal fields (By the examples of the Black Sea reefs and the mounds of the lost city field)

Two genetically different types of authigenic carbonate mounds are studied: those within an active hydrothermal field related to serpentinite protrusions in the zone of intersection of a transform fracture zone and the Mid-Atlantic Ridge, and those in an active field of methane seepings in the Dnieper canyon of the Black sea. The general geochemical conditions under which authigenic carbonate formation occurs in the two fields considered were found. They include the presence of reduced H₂S, H₂, and CH₄ gases at the absence of free oxygen; the high alkalinity of the waters participating in the carbonate formation; the similarity of the textural and structural features of authigenic aragonite, which represents the initial mineral of the carbonate matter of the mounds; the paragenesis of aragonite with sulfide minerals; and the close relation of carbonate mounds with communities of sulfate-reducing and methane-oxidizing microorganisms. A new mechanism of formation of hydrothermal authigenic carbonates is suggested; it implies their microbial sulfate reduction over the hydrogen of the fluid in the subsurface zone (biosphere) of mixing between the hydrothermal solution and the adjacent seawater.     

Determination of characteristics of atmospheric motions from satellite multiwave remote sensing data

A method of determination of atmospheric dynamic characteristics from the data of remote sensing from a geostationary satellite is described. The method is based on the use of inhomogeneities in the concentration field of a conservative additive as tracers and on the application of correlation-extreme algorithms. Unlike the common methods used abroad, this method is able to determine not only the vector field of wind velocity but also the coefficient of turbulent diffusion and vorticity. Results of computations of the fields of the horizontal component of wind velocity and the effective coefficient of horizontal mesoscale turbulent diffusion from the Meteosat-8 SEVIRI water-vapor channel data are presented. It is shown that the average values of the effective coefficient of mesoscale horizontal turbulent diffusion in the areas with a predominantly turbulized air-mass motion are 1.5 times greater than in the areas where a laminar motion dominates. Specific features of the calculated values of the upper-troposphere dynamic characteristics in different stages of the North Atlantic TC Helene (September 2006) are analyzed.     

Manifestation of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation in the tropical stratosphere

Characteristics of the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation effects manifested on interannual scales in the equatorial stratosphere are determined. Wavelet analysis of local phase shifts, coherence, and correlation is used to obtain correlation portraits of the largest factors of climate variability against the background of coherent variations in the equatorial stratospheric wind speed at the 50- and 15-hPa pressure levels. It is shown that the Arctic Oscillation and El Niño-Southern Oscillation signals may reach the tropical stratosphere. The signals are easily identified in a wide range of scales, including quasi-biennial, 3-to 5-year, and 10-to 11-year periods. The results obtained reflect a coherent pattern of the manifestation of these signals at the selected stratospheric levels. It is found that the El Niño-Southern Oscillation effect at periods close to 10–11 years reaches the stratospheric level rather rapidly, in the same or next month, while the effects of the Arctic Oscillation index are delayed by nine months. The estimates obtained show that a phase shift of almost 180° in the Arctic Oscillation index relative to the equatorial stratospheric wind occurred in almost all of the range of interannual periods in 1978 and 1992. For the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, an increase in local correlations on a scale of 3-to 5-year variations was observed in 1980–1990, a 180° phase shift occurred in 1992, and the correlation with stratospheric wind increased in 1992–2004. The estimates obtained are indicative of a change in the atmospheric circulation pattern that took place in the Northern Hemisphere in 1978–1991.     

Assessment of the impact of the planetary scale on the decay of blocking and the use of phase diagrams and enstrophy as a diagnostic

It was shown that abrupt changes in the large-scale structure of atmospheric flows may lead to the rapid decay of blocking. Analysis of phase diagrams made it possible to identify when sharp changes occurred in the dynamics of the system. The connection of these changes to the decay of blocking was estimated for three blocking events in the Southern Hemisphere. In addition to phase diagrams, enstrophy was used as a diagnostic tool for the analysis of blocking events. From the results of this analysis, four scenarios for the decay mechanisms were determined: (i) decay with a lack of synoptic-scale support, (ii) decay with an active role for synoptic processes, and (iii–iv) either of these mechanisms in the interaction with an abrupt change in the character of the planetary-scale flow.     

Statistical analysis of a global photochemical model of the atmosphere

This is a study of the sensitivity of model results (atmospheric content of main gas constituents and radiative characteristics of the atmosphere) to errors in emissions of a number of atmospheric gaseous pollutants. Groups of the model variables most dependent on these errors are selected. Two variants of emissions are considered: one without their evolution and the other with their variation according to the IPCC scenario. The estimates are made on the basis of standard statistical methods for the results obtained with the detailed onedimensional radiative—photochemical model of the Main Geophysical Observatory (MGO). Some approaches to such estimations with models of higher complexity and to the solution of the inverse problem (i.e., the estimation of the necessary accuracy of external model parameters for obtaining the given accuracy of model results) are outlined.     

A comparative mineralogical study of gas-related sediments of the Gulf of Cádiz

The Gulf of Cádiz area has been extensively surveyed in recent years and several gas-related fluid escape seafloor structures have been identified. In this study, gravity cores, collected during the ANASTASYA/00 and ANASTASYA/01 cruises, on mud volcanoes, hemipelagic sediments and dredged material from diapiric structures, have been studied. A comparative mineralogical analysis by XRD and SEM of samples from different areas has been performed in order to determine whether there is a characteristic mineralogy related to these fluid escape structures, and also to determine the origin of the mud matrix and constrain the depth of the parent units. The mineralogical analysis reflects the different origins of the different units described in the cores: hemipelagic material of the slope, clays that underlie the mud volcanoes and are discharged at the sea bottom surface, and authigenic and diagenetic minerals possibly involved in the anaerobic oxidation of methane in the mud volcano sediments.     

Turbulent structure of the subsurface layer of the sea according to the data of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">Sigma-1</Emphasis> measuring complex

We present the results of experimental investigations of the characteristics of turbulence in the layer of wave-induced mixing. The data on the fluctuations of velocity, temperature, and conductivity are obtained with the help of a Sigma-1 measuring complex. The computed values of the dissipation rate of turbulent energy are compared with different models proposed for the subsurface layer. It is shown that the available models fail to guarantee satisfactory agreement of the numerical results with the experimental data for the layer of active wave action and, in particular, in the presence of swell. This leads us to the conclusion concerning the necessity of parametrization and assimilation of more complete data on the state of the sea surface, the structure of currents, and the surface layer of the atmosphere in the models. __________ Translated from Morskoi Gidrofizicheskii Zhurnal, No. 2, pp. 15–28, March–April, 2007.