Seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka and its applications to the M = 6.6 earthquake of 6 October 1987

The earthquake of 6 October 1987 (M = 6.6), which occurred near the Shipunsky Cape, Kamchatka, was the largest crustal event in the vicinity of the main city of Kamchatka — Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky — during the last three decades. It was followed by numerous aftershocks. This earthquake allowed us to test the effectiveness of the seismic hazard monitoring in Kamchatka, including the seismological, geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys. The seismic survey provided the location and source nature of the main shock and aftershocks and the seismic environment of the main shock. The geodetic and hydrogeochemical surveys have yielded data on the response to earthquakes of the Earth's surface deformations, water level, and chemical elements concentration in the underground water. As a result, the following data were obtained:

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The earthquake of 6 October had a seismic moment 4–10 E18 Nm, thrust type of faulting and the source volume of 20 × 20 × 10 km³. The maximum intensity was VI–VII (MSK-64 scale) and maximum acceleration 88 cm/s².

Before this event, a relative increase in the number of the upper mantle (depth more than 100 km) moderate magnitude earthquakes during 5 years and a one-year period of seismic quiescence for small shallow earthquakes, were recognized. Significant anomalies in HCO₃ and H₃BO₃ concentrations in the underground waters were observed in the wells a week before the main shock.

     

Peculiarities of surface air temperature variations over the Far East regions in 1976–2005

Peculiarities are investigated of the air temperature variation tendencies at some stations of the Far East in 1976–2005. The estimate of linear trend equation coefficients is computed according to the air temperature observation data using the least squares method. It is demonstrated that the air temperature trend in northern regions possesses a small probability at small values of residual variability. In the southern regions, the trend significance increases for almost all seasons at small values of residual variability. At midlatitude stations, the trend significance in January and February decreases considerably due to the large values of residual variability.     

Late Cretaceous-Cenozoic history of the Lake Baikal depression and formation of its unique biodiversity

Independent methods of geological and molecular-biological chronologies have made it possible to define generally corresponding stages in the geological and biological evolution of the environments and communities of Lake Baikal since the Late Cretaceous, i.e., during the last 70 myr. All the abiotic elements drastically changed during geological evolution, with destruction of existing and formation of new natural complexes. Nevertheless, some specific zones retained relicts of former settings. The resulting present-day natural complex includes elements of different ages and geneses. Similar to different natural zones of the present-day Earth, which are populated by different biocoenoses, stages in the development of abiotic elements are also characterized by different faunal and floral assemblages. Some taxa were replaced by others, and the resulting aqueous biota of Lake Baikal includes different-age and ecologically different elements. The oldest groups of Baikal organisms appeared approximately 70 Ma ago, although the largest proportion of the lake biota started forming 4–3 Ma ago in response to the most drastic changes in the abiotic elements of the environment. The youngest taxa appeared 1.8 to 0.15 Ma ago, i.e., during the period when superdeep lake environments and mountainous glaciations were developing. The chronological coincidence of main stages in development of abiotic and biotic elements of the nature indicates their relationships. Particular transformations of abiotic elements and the probable mechanism of their influence on the evolution of living communities are also considered.     

Searches for very high energy gamma rays from blazars with CANGAROO-III telescope in 2005-2009

We have searched for very high energy (VHE) gamma rays from four blazars using the CANGAROO-III imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescope. We report the results of the observations of H 2356-309, PKS 2155-304, PKS 0537-441, and 3C 279, performed from 2005 to 2009, applying a new analysis to suppress the effects of the position dependence of Cherenkov images in the field of view. No significant VHE gamma ray emission was detected from any of the four blazars. The GeV gamma-ray spectra of these objects were obtained by analyzing Fermi/LAT archival data. Wide range (radio to VHE gamma-ray bands) spectral energy distributions (SEDs) including CANGAROO-III upper limits, GeV gamma-ray spectra, and archival data, even though they are non-simultaneous, are discussed using a one-zone synchrotron self-Compton (SSC) model in combination with a external Compton (EC) radiation. The HBLs (H 2356-309 and PKS 2155-304) can be explained by a simple SSC model, and PKS 0537-441 and 3C 279 are well modeled by a combination of SSC and EC model. We find a consistency with the blazar sequence in terms of strength of magnetic field and component size.     

Solar Microwave Bursts from Electron Populations with a 'Broken’ Energy Spectrum

Usually the gyrosynchrotron emission of microwave bursts from electron populations with a power-law (PL) energy distribution has been considered under the assumption that the spectral index of the distribution is constant over a wide range of energies. Meanwhile, there is strong evidence, in particular from hard X-ray and -ray, but also from cm/mm wavelength radio observations, that in many solar flare events the spectrum of the emitting electrons is characterized by a significant hardening at energies above 100–500 keV. We present some examples of calculated microwave burst spectra at cm/mm wavelengths taking into account the above evidence. It is shown that a break in the energy spectrum of the PL electrons can indeed result in a spectral hardening sometimes observed in microwave bursts at frequencies above 10–30 GHz.     

A comparative study of geothermal and meteorological records of climate change in Kamchatka

To reconstruct the recent climate history in Kamchatka, a series of repeated precise temperature logs were performed in a number of boreholes located in a broad east-west strip (between 52 and 54°N) in the central part of Kamchatka west of Petropavlovsk-Kamchatski. Within three years more than 30 temperature logs were performed in 10 holes (one up to six logs per hole) to the depth of up to 400 metres. Measured temperature gradients varied in a broad interval 0 to 60 mK/m and in some holes a sizeable variation in the subsurface temperatures due to advective heat transport by underground water was observed. Measured data were compared with older temperature profiles obtained in the early eighties by Sugrobov and Yanovsky (1993). Even when older data are of poorer precision (accuracy of about 0.1 K), they presented valuable information of the subsurface temperature conditions existing 20–25 years ago. Borehole observations and the inverted ground surface temperature histories (GSTHs) used for the paleoclimate reconstruction were complemented with a detailed survey of meteorological data. Namely, the long-term surface air temperature (SAT) and precipitation records from Petropavlovsk station (in operation since 1890) were used together with similar data from a number of local subsidiary meteo-stations operating in Central Kamchatka since 1950. Regardless of extreme complexity of the local meteorological/climate conditions, diversity of borehole sites and calibration of measuring devices used during the whole campaign, the results of the climate reconstruction supported a general warming of about 1 K characteristic for the 20th century, which followed an inexpressive cooler period typical for the most of the 19th century. In the last three to four decades the warming rate has been locally increasing up to 0.02 K/year. It was also shown that the snow cover played a dominant role in the penetration of the climate “signal” to depth and could considerably smooth down the subsurface response to the changes occurred on the surface.     

Gamma-Hadron Separation using Čerenkov Photon Density Fluctuations

In the atmospheric Čerenkov technique γ-rays are detected against the abundant background produced by hadronic showers. In order to improve the signal to noise ratio of theexperiment, it is necessary to reject a significant fraction of hadronic showers. Traditional background rejection methods based on image shape parameters have been extensively used for the data from imaging telescopes. However, non-imaging Čerenkov telescopes have to develop very different means of statistically identifying and removing cosmic ray events. Some of the parameters, which could be potentially important for non-imaging arrays, are the temporal and spectral differences, the lateral distributions and density fluctuations of Čerenkov photons generated by γ-ray and hadron primaries. Here we study the differences in fluctuations of Čerenkov photon density in the light pool at the observation level from showers initiated by photons and those initiated by protons or heavier nuclei. The database of simulated events for the PACT array has been used to evaluate the efficiency of the new technique. Various types of density fluctuations like the short range and medium range fluctuations as well as flatness parameter are studied. The estimated quality factors reflect the efficiencies with which the hadrons can be rejected from the data. Since some of these parameters are independent, the cuts may be applied in tandem and we demonstrate that the proton rejection efficiency of ∼90% can be achieved. Use of density fluctuations is particularly suited for wavefront sampling observations and it seems to be a good technique to improve the signal to noise ratio. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Estimation of the effect of protective piers on wind wave parameters in the Sevastopol Bay

An effectiveness of the storm wave attenuation by protective piers in the Sevastopol Bay of the Black Sea is studied on the basis of numerical simulation using the SWAN spectral model. Analyzed are the parameters of waves generated by winds of four main directions as well as by the southern cyclone during the storm on November 11, 2007. It is obtained that waves from the northwest part of the Black Sea penetrate most intensively into the Sevastopol Bay in case of western wind and, to a lesser degree, in case of northern and southern winds. A protective effect of the piers is observed in the west part of the bay only and the wave attenuation near the southern coast is more significant than near the northern one. The area of the southern coast directly behind the southern pier is completely protected from the storm waves and, as moving away from the pier, the danger of intensive wave effect on the coast is kept.     

Sources of the Late Mesozoic magmatic associations in the northeastern part of the Amurian microcontinent

Based on generalization of available geochronological data, Late Mesozoic magmatic associations in the northeastern part of the Amurian microcontinent are divided into three groups: 142–125, 124–115, and <110 Ma. The age of these associations decreases with approaching the Pacific margin of Asia. In the same direction, they show a change in sources of their parental melts: continental crust (142–125 Ma) → continental crust + PREMA (DM) (124–115 Ma) → continental crust + PREMA (DM) + EMII (<110 Ma). Isotope-geochemical (Sr-Nd) study indicates that intrusive and volcanic rocks of the Late Mesozoic magmatic associations in the northeastern part of the Amurian microcontinent were originated in geodynamic settings that provided access of enriched mantle sources to magma formation. The most probable of these settings are as follows: (1) plate sliding accompanying by the formation of slab window beneath continental margin; (2) passage of the Asian margin over the East Asian mantle hot field in the Late Mesozoic; (3) asthenospheric upwelling due to delamination of the lower crust during closure of the Mongolian-Okhotsk ocean caused by collision between the Amurian microcontinent, Dzhugdzhur-Stanovoy, and Selenga-Stanovoy superterranes in the Central Asian fold belt.     

Apophis: the Story Behind the Scenes

On December 20, 2004 the Minor Planet Center issued the Minor Planet Electronic Circular (MPEC) 2004-Y25 announcing the discovery of a new Near Earth Asteroid (NEA) with designation 2004 MN₄. Only two days later, when the Christmas holidays were about to begin, it was already apparent that this asteroid, currently known as Apophis, would be notorious: our close-approach monitoring system, CLOMON2, was already showing a Virtual Impactor (VI) in 2029 reaching the level 2 in the Torino Scale, the first asteroid to reach that level since our monitoring system had been operational. However, this was just the beginning of what it was to come in the subsequent days. In this paper we will give an overview of the NEODyS-CLOMON2 system and provide the details on how Apophis’ collision scenario evolved, the way NEODyS’ team handled it and the crazy 2004’ Christmas holidays we had due to this unexpected guest.