华北地区地震异常前兆信息场演化特征及其与地震关系的研究

在对地震异常前兆信息量先前研究的基础上,进一步给出了描述各种地震异常前兆信息量的普适性综合数学表达式.从大量震例资料入手,再次研究了地震异常延续有效性的问题,进而建立了地震异常持续有效时间与延续有效时间的数学关系式.收集整理了1980～1997年华北地区水化、形变、地磁、应力、水位、地电等371个观测项目、上百万个前兆观测数据,对每一观测项目逐一计算了它们的地震异常前兆信息量.研究了华北地区近20年的地震异常前兆信息场的演化特征及其与地震的关系,建立了华北地区Ms≥5地震的中短期综合预报指标体系,经R值评分检验,表明该地震综合预报指标体系在中短期地震预测中具有一定效果.     

Lithium isotope fractionation in the southern Cascadia subduction zone

We present lithium (Li) abundances and isotope compositions for a suite of anhydrous olivine tholeiites (HAOTs) and hydrous basalt-andesitic (BA) lavas from the Mt. Shasta and Medicine Lake regions, California. The values of δ⁷Li vary from + 0.9‰ to + 6.4‰ and correlate inversely with distance from the trench. These data are consistent with continuous isotope fractionation of Li during dehydration of the subducted oceanic lithosphere, an interpretation corroborated by uniformly high pre-eruptive H₂O contents in basaltic andesites accompanied by high Li, Rb, Sr, Ba and Pb abundances. The subduction-derived component that was added to these hydrous magmas is shown to be very similar beneath both Mt. Shasta and Medicine Lake volcanoes despite characteristically distinct Li isotope compositions in the magmas themselves. More evolved andesites and dacites from Mt. Shasta have δ⁷Li from + 2.8 to + 6.9‰ which is identical with the range obtained for HAOTs and BA lavas from Mt. Shasta. Therefore, Li isotopes do not provide evidence for any other crustal component admixed to Mt. Shasta andesites or dacites during magmatic differentiation and magma mixing in the crust.     

Variability of Fram Strait sea ice export: causes, impacts and feedbacks in a coupled climate model

Analyses of a 500-year control integration of the global coupled atmosphere–sea ice–ocean model ECHAM5.0/MPI-OM show a high variability in the ice export through Fram Strait on interannual to decadal timescales. This variability is mainly determined by variations in the sea level pressure gradient across Fram Strait and thus geostrophic wind stress. Ice thickness anomalies, formed at the Siberian coast and in the Chukchi Sea, propagate across the Arctic to Fram Strait and contribute to the variability of the ice export on a timescale of about 9 years. Large anomalies of the ice export through Fram Strait cause fresh water signals, which reach the Labrador Sea after 1–2 years and lead to significant changes in the deep convection. The associated anomalies in ice cover and ocean heat release have a significant impact on air temperature in the Labrador Sea and on the large-scale atmospheric circulation. This affects the sea ice transport and distribution in the Arctic again. Sensitivity studies, simulating the effect of large ice exports through Fram Strait, show that the isolated effect of a prescribed ice/fresh water anomaly is very important for the climate variability in the Labrador Sea. Thus, the ice export through Fram Strait can be used for predictability of Labrador Sea climate up to 2 years in advance.     

Long-term effects of anthropogenic CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> emissions simulated with a complex earth system model

A new complex earth system model consisting of an atmospheric general circulation model, an ocean general circulation model, a three-dimensional ice sheet model, a marine biogeochemistry model, and a dynamic vegetation model was used to study the long-term response to anthropogenic carbon emissions. The prescribed emissions follow estimates of past emissions for the period 1751–2000 and standard IPCC emission scenarios up to the year 2100. After 2100, an exponential decrease of the emissions was assumed. For each of the scenarios, a small ensemble of simulations was carried out. The North Atlantic overturning collapsed in the high emission scenario (A2) simulations. In the low emission scenario (B1), only a temporary weakening of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic is predicted. The moderate emission scenario (A1B) brings the system close to its bifurcation point, with three out of five runs leading to a collapsed North Atlantic overturning circulation. The atmospheric moisture transport predominantly contributes to the collapse of the deep water formation. In the simulations with collapsed deep water formation in the North Atlantic a substantial cooling over parts of the North Atlantic is simulated. Anthropogenic climate change substantially reduces the ability of land and ocean to sequester anthropogenic carbon. The simulated effect of a collapse of the deep water formation in the North Atlantic on the atmospheric CO₂ concentration turned out to be relatively small. The volume of the Greenland ice sheet is reduced, but its contribution to global mean sea level is almost counterbalanced by the growth of the Antarctic ice sheet due to enhanced snowfall. The modifications of the high latitude freshwater input due to the simulated changes in mass balance of the ice sheet are one order of magnitude smaller than the changes due to atmospheric moisture transport. After the year 3000, the global mean surface temperature is predicted to be almost constant due to the compensating effects of decreasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations due to oceanic uptake and delayed response to increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations before.     

就张北地震谈谈地震监测预报中的几个技术性问题

１９９８年１月１０日河北省张北县发生６．２级地震,作为对这次地震的一次反思,就地震监测预报中的长、中、短临预报、地震速报、震害预测等各项工作中的技术问题、改进方向提出了一些具体意见,以供同行们参考。     

地震前兆信息量的研究：（一）地震异常延续有效性的研究

根据我国大陆５８个Ｍｓ≥５级地震的震列资料,详细地研究了地震异常延续有效时间与持续时间的相关关系,给出了由地震异常持续时间计算地震异常预测的有效时间（即地震异常延续有效时间的最优估值）的公式,经多种数理统计方法检验,证明这一公式是保信、可用的。这为进一步深入开发的震异常前兆信息量的研究奠定了基础,同时也为日常地震会商中常震确定地震异常延续有效性问题,提供了定量分析判定依据,因此本研究具有一定的实际     

On the relation between residual currents and the wind field in the German Bight

Summary The long-period part (T>25 h) of currents measured at close spacing in the German Bight in June 1968 is investigated. The north component of the bottom current is shown to be highly correlated with the east component of the wind in this area, the wind-generated changes of the mass-field giving rise to a quasi-geostrophic current near the bottom.This current responds without perceptible delay to the variations of wind fields with periods considerably longer than those of the seiches of the North Sea. The accelerations linked to such long periods are so small as to be negligable and the residual currents can be regarded as quasi-stationary.

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Über die Beziehung zwischen Reststrom und Windfeld in der Deutschen Bucht

Zusammenfassung Es werden engabständige Strommessungen in der Deutschen Bucht aus dem Juni 1968 in ihrem langperiodischen Teil (T>25 h) untersucht. Dabei ergibt sich, daß die Nordkomponente des Bodenstromes (v) stark korreliert mit der Ostkomponente des Windes (U) in diesem Gebiet. Die winderzeugten Veränderungen des Massenfeldes verursachen eine quasi-geostrophische Strömung am Boden.Diese Strömung reagiert ohne erkennbare Verzögerung auf solche Veränderungen des Windfeldes, die erheblich größere Perioden haben als die Eigenschwingungen der Nordsee. Die damit verbundenen Beschleunigungen sind sehr klein und so zu vernachlässigen; daher kann man die Restströmung auch als quasi-stationär ansehen.

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Sur la relation entre les courants résiduels et le champ du vent en baie Allemande

Résumé La partie à longue période (T>25 h) de courants measurés en des points rapprochés en baie Allemande en juin 1968 est étudiée. La composante Nord du courant de fond se révèle largement corrélée avec la composante Est du vent dans cette zone. Les modifications du champ de masse dues au vent donnent naissance à un courant quasi-géostrophique près du fond.Ce courant répond sans délai perceptible aux variations du champ du vent avec des périodes considérablement plus longues que celles des seiches de la mer du Nord. Les accélérations liées à de telles longues périodes sont si petites qu'elles peuvent être négligées et les courants peuvent être considérés comme quasi-stationnaires.

     

Alpine tectonics and diapiric structures in the Pre-Betic zone of southeast Spain

The Pre-Betic is the most northerly of the Alpine zones forming the Betic Cordilleras of southern Spain. It consists of strongly folded and faulted Mesozoic and Tertiary rocks, the oldest of which are ferruginous and gypsiferous Triassic mudstones, followed by a predominantly carbonate facies of Cretaceous, Palaeogene and Miocene age. Although this sequence is interrupted by a number of minor unconformities, the major structures were formed during the middle or late Miocene. The highly incompetent Triassic rocks are the most strongly deformed, and form diapiric intrusions discordant to regional structural trends in the younger rocks. The latter are essentially of two facies: massive competent limestones which are deformed by relatively simple folds of large wavelength, and highly incompetent marl-limestone interbeds with complex disharmonic folds and crush belts. Faults include low-angle and high-angle thrusts, gravity slides and wrench faults. The regional tectonic strike is ENE to NE, but the diapiric intrusions mostly follow WNW and N directions. These intrusions have pushed the younger rocks aside, the result being polyphase structures of several trends.Less intense post-Miocene tectonics are mostly associated with continued diapirism and have resulted in the folding and tilting of the late Miocene to Quaternary elastic sediments.