Preparing a seismic hazard model for Switzerland: the view from PEGASOS Expert Group 3 (EG1c)

The seismic hazard model used in the PEGASOS project for assessing earth-quake hazard at four NPP sites was a composite of four sub-models, each produced by a team of three experts. In this paper, one of these models is described in detail by the authors. A criticism sometimes levelled at probabilistic seismic hazard studies is that the process by which seismic source zones are arrived at is obscure, subjective and inconsistent. Here, we attempt to recount the stages by which the model evolved, and the decisions made along the way. In particular, a macro-to-micro approach was used, in which three main stages can be described. The first was the characterisation of the overall kinematic model, the “big picture” of regional seismogenesis. Secondly, this was refined to a more detailed seismotectonic model. Lastly, this was used as the basis of individual sources, for which parameters can be assessed. Some basic questions had also to be answered about aspects of the approach to modelling to be used: for instance, is spatial smoothing an appropriate tool to apply? Should individual fault sources be modelled in an intraplate environment? Also, the extent to which alternative modelling decisions should be expressed in a logic tree structure has to be considered.     

Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors

Abstract

Floods from the middle part of the River Morava (eastern Czech Republic) are considered over the course of the past three centuries, the study being based on data derived from documentary evidence (1691–1880), measured peak water stages, H_k (1881–1920) and peak discharges, Q_k (1916–2009), evaluated with respect to their N-year return period (H_N and Q_N ). Changes in land use and water management (water reservoirs, channel modifications) are discussed, as are factors influencing runoff conditions in the Morava catchment. Decadal synthesis of flood series identifies the highest flood activity in the decades of 1911–1920 and 1961–1970 (11 floods each), 1831–1840, 1891–1900, 1901–1910 and 1931–1940 (10 floods each). Uncertainty in this series is related to some incompleteness of documentary data in the pre-1881 period. Very low flood frequency occurred in the 1990s–2000s, although the most disastrous floods were recorded in this particular period (July 1997 at Q ₁₀₀ and March/April 2006 at Q ₂₀–Q ₅₀). Changes in flood frequency correspond partly to long-term changes in temperature and precipitation patterns.

Citation Brázdil, R., ?ezní?ková, L., Valá?ek, H., Havlí?ek, M., Dobrovolný, P., Soukalová, E., ?ehánek, T. & Skokanová, H. (2011) Fluctuations of floods of the River Morava (Czech Republic) in the 1691–2009 period: interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors. Hydrol. Sci. J. 56(3), 468–485.     

Mutual validation of GNSS height measurements and high-precision geometric-astronomical leveling

The method of geometric-astronomical leveling is presented as a suited technique for the validation of GNSS (Global Navigation Satellite System) heights. In geometric-astronomical leveling, the ellipsoidal height differences are obtained by combining conventional spirit leveling and astronomical leveling. Astronomical leveling with recently developed digital zenith camera systems is capable of providing the geometry of equipotential surfaces of the gravity field accurate to a few 0.1 mm per km. This is comparable to the accuracy of spirit leveling. Consequently, geometric-astronomical leveling yields accurate ellipsoidal height differences that may serve as an independent check on GNSS height measurements at local scales. A test was performed in a local geodetic network near Hanover. GPS observations were simultaneously carried out at five stations over a time span of 48 h and processed considering state-of-the-art techniques and sophisticated new approaches to reduce station-dependent errors. The comparison of GPS height differences with those from geometric-astronomical leveling shows a promising agreement of some millimeters. The experiment indicates the currently achievable accuracy level of GPS height measurements and demonstrates the practical applicability of the proposed approach for the validation of GNSS height measurements as well as the evaluation of GNSS height processing strategies.     

A study to discriminate local,urban and regional source contributions to the particulate matter concentrations in the city of Dresden,Germany

The fractions of local traffic (LT), urban background (UBG) and regional background (RBG) of the particle pollution at a traffic-influenced kerbside in Dresden, Germany, were determined by measurements of size-segregated mass concentration, chemical composition and particle size distributions in a network of five measurement stations partly existing and partly set up for this study. Besides the kerbside station, one urban background site and three rural sites were included in the study. Using data from these different sites, the LT, UBG, and RBG contributions were calculated, following the approach of Lenschow et al. (2001). At the kerbside site, 19% of the total number concentration (Dp_St = 10–600 nm) could be attributed to the RBG, 15% to the UBG, and 66% to the LT immediately nearby. Particle mass concentrations up to Dp_aer = 420 nm RBG amounts to 68%, UBG to 21%, and LT only to 11%. Highest mass concentrations were observed at all stations in autumn and winter during easterly inflow directions. The local traffic fraction of PM₁₀ mass at the kerbside station was found to be 30% for westerly inflow, but only 7% for southeasterly inflow due to the dominating transport fraction from up to 80% of the particle mass at this inflow direction. Size-resolved investigation showed the main fractions in both the particle size ranges of Dp_aer = 0.42 to 1.2 and 0.14 to 0.42 μm at all stations. The main components sulphate, ammonium and total carbon showed higher concentrations at south-eastern/eastern inflow in autumn at all stations, while nitrate at the kerbside and urban background site was higher during westerly inflow in winter. The chemical composition at the regional background site at westerly inflow (12% nitrate, 8% sulphate, 11% total carbon) was significantly different from that at easterly inflow (3% nitrate, 15% sulphate, 22% total carbon). The prevailing part of the ionic mass was always found in the fine particle range of Dp_aer = 0.14 to 1.2 μm at all stations. For all inflow directions highest total carbon concentrations were observed at the kerbside station, especially in the ultra-fine size range of Dp_aer = 0.05 to 0.14 μm with up to 30% of the whole carbon. PAH concentrations were always higher at south-eastern/eastern inflow especially during wintertime. Trace metal components and silicon were found mainly in the coarse mode fraction at the kerbside resulting from abrasion or resuspension.     

Artificial light at night: implications for early life stages development in four temperate freshwater fish species

Flora and fauna have both evolved under a natural cycle of light and dark. But especially in urban areas, the night is now increasingly disturbed by artificial light. Many traits and behaviours in fish are triggered by a circadian clock, for example hatching and swim bladder inflation, which predominantly take place at dusk or night. As lighting becomes brighter and extends farther into rural areas, the distinction between day and night becomes increasingly blurred. Therefore, the loss of diurnal trigger by artificial light at night was hypothesized having deleterious effects on these traits and impact fish reproduction. To assess these effects, eggs of four native freshwater fishes, Eurasian perch Perca fluviatilis, roach Rutilus rutilus, bleak Alburnus alburnus and chub Leuciscus cephalus, were incubated under two different light conditions: a photoperiod of 14 h light:10 h darkness (LD) and continuous illumination (LL). The time to hatch and swim bladder inflation was recorded. The species showed inconsistent reactions to the light treatments. In roach and bleak, the time to 50% hatch was longer in LL, whereas continuous lighting had an accelerating effect in chub. Incubation in LL elongated the hatching period in perch and roach and, in perch, the onset of darkness seemed to trigger hatching. The swim bladder inflation was significantly promoted by continuous light in chub and bleak but was not affected in roach. In conclusion, nocturnal artificial illumination could have an effect on hatching and initial swim bladder filling by masking the day–night-change and thereby diminish the trigger effect. However, the reactions were species specific and the increase in variation indicated a lack of diurnal triggering, whilst a general deleterious effect of artificial light at night has not been identified on early life stages.     

Sampling strategy and climatic implications of tree-ring stable isotopes on the southeast Tibetan Plateau

We explore the potential of tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O and δ¹³C records for reconstructing climate variability in the southeast Tibetan Plateau. Our sampling strategy was designed to investigate intra and inter-tree variability, and the effects of the age of tree on δ¹⁸O variation. We show that intra-tree δ¹³C and δ¹⁸O variability is negligible, and inter-tree coherence is sufficient to build robust tree-ring δ¹⁸O or δ¹³C chronologies based on only four trees. There is no evidence of an age effect regarding δ¹⁸O, in contrast with tree-ring width. In our warm and moist sampling site, young tree δ¹³C is not clearly correlated with monthly mean meteorological data. Tree-ring δ¹⁸O appears significantly anti-correlated with summer precipitation amount, regional cloud cover, and relative humidity. Simulations conducted with the ORCHIDEE land surface model confirm the observed contribution of relative humidity to tree cellulose δ¹⁸O, and explain the weak correlation of δ¹³C with climate by the non-linear integration linked with photosynthesis. Altogether, the tree-ring cellulose δ¹⁸O is shown to be a promising proxy to reconstruct regional summer moisture variability prior to the instrumental period.     

Chemical composition of spinel from Uralian-Alaskan-type Mafic–Ultramafic complexes and its petrogenetic significance

Uralian-Alaskan-type mafic–ultramafic complexes are recognized as a distinct class of intrusions regarding lithologic assemblage, mineral chemistry and petrogenetic setting. In the present study, we discuss new data on the distribution of major elements in minerals of the spinel group in rocks from Uralian-Alaskan-type complexes in the Ural Mountains, Russia. Cr-rich spinel (Cr₂O₃ = 20–53 wt%) in dunite with interstitial clinopyroxene and in wehrlite cumulates indicate that it reacted with interstitial liquid resulting in the progressive substitution of Al₂O₂ and Cr₂O₃ by Fe₂O₃ and TiO₂. A distinct change in the spinel chemistry in dunite (Cr₂O₃ = 47–53 wt%), towards Al₂O₃- and Cr₂O₃-poor but Fe₂O₃-rich compositions monitors the onset of clinopyroxene fractionation in wehrlite (Cr₂O₃ = 15–35 wt%, Al₂O₃ = 1–8 wt%, Fe₂O₃ = 25–55 wt%). In more fractionated mafic rocks, the calculated initial composition of exsolved spinel traces the sustained crystallization of clinopyroxene by decreasing Cr₂O₃ and increasing FeO, Fe₂O₃ and fO₂. Finally, the initiation of feldspar crystallization buffers the Al₂O₃ content in most of the spinels in mafic rocks at very low Cr₂O₃ contents (<5 wt%). The fractionation path all along and the reaction with interstitial liquid are accompanied by increasing Fe₂O₃ contents in the spinel. This likely is caused by a significant increase in the oxygen fugacity, which suggests closed system fractionation processes. Spinel with Cr₂O₃ < 27 wt% is exsolved into a Fe₂O₃-rich and an Al₂O₃-rich phase forming a variety of textures. Remarkably, exsolved spinel in different lithologies from complexes 200 km apart follows one distinct solvus line defining a temperature of ca. 600°C. This indicates that the parental magmas were emplaced and eventually cooled at similar levels in the lithosphere, likely near the crust–mantle boundary. Eventually, these 600°C hot bodies were rapidly transported into colder regions of the upper crust during a regional tectonic event, probably during the major active phase of the Main Uralian Fault.     

Rainfall-induced landslide event of May 2010 in the eastern part of the Czech Republic

More than 150 landslides originated in the eastern part of the Czech Republic (region of the Flysch Outer Western Carpathians—hereinafter, OWC) due to soil saturation caused by antecedent precipitation and long lasting and intensive rainfalls on 16–18 May 2010 (>300 mm as measured by some stations). As a consequence, a multitude of small failures originated 88% of which was smaller than 10⁴ m². Most landslides are characterised as shallow (<10 m) or middle–deep (10–30 m) incipient (rather short travel) landslides, debris slides and soil slips spatially clustered to a geological domain underlain by rather weak thin-bedded flysch and unconsolidated Quaternary deposits. An exception to this is represented by a kilometre-long rockslide (∼2–3 mil m³) affecting tectonically weakened and weathered claystone/mudstone-dominated flysch on the southern slope of Mt. Girová (the Beskydy Mountains). The rockslide is one of the largest long runout landslides in the territory of the Czech Republic activated over the past few decades as it reaches the dimensions of the largest documented Holocene long runout landslides in the Czech part of the OWC. A majority of the May 2010 landslide events developed inside older (Holocene or historic) landslide terrains, which points to their spatial persistency and recurrent nature. In spite of the fact that the May 2010 landslide event was not as destructive as some previous landslide activisation in the OWC region (e.g. July 1997 event), it left many slope failures at the initial stage of their potential future reactivation.     

Ries crater and suevite revisited—Observations and modeling Part I: Observations

We report results of an interdisciplinary project devoted to the 26 km‐diameter Ries crater and to the genesis of suevite. Recent laboratory analyses of “crater suevite” occurring within the central crater basin and of “outer suevite” on top of the continuous ejecta blanket, as well as data accumulated during the past 50 years, are interpreted within the boundary conditions imposed by a comprehensive new effort to model the crater formation and its ejecta deposits by computer code calculations (Artemieva et al. 2013). The properties of suevite are considered on all scales from megascopic to submicroscopic in the context of its geological setting. In a new approach, we reconstruct the minimum/maximum volumes of all allochthonous impact formations (108/116 km³), of suevite (14/22 km³), and the total volume of impact melt (4.9/8.0 km³) produced by the Ries impact event prior to erosion. These volumes are reasonably compatible with corresponding values obtained by numerical modeling. Taking all data on modal composition, texture, chemistry, and shock metamorphism of suevite, and the results of modeling into account, we arrive at a new empirical model implying five main consecutive phases of crater formation and ejecta emplacement. Numerical modeling indicates that only a very small fraction of suevite can be derived from the “primary ejecta plume,” which is possibly represented by the fine‐grained basal layer of outer suevite. The main mass of suevite was deposited from a “secondary plume” induced by an explosive reaction (“fuel‐coolant interaction”) of impact melt with water and volatile‐rich sedimentary rocks within a clast‐laden temporary melt pool. Both melt pool and plume appear to be heterogeneous in space and time. Outer suevite appears to be derived from an early formed, melt‐rich and clast‐poor plume region rich in strongly shocked components (melt ? clasts) and originating from an upper, more marginal zone of the melt pool. Crater suevite is obviously deposited from later formed, clast‐rich and melt‐poor plumes dominated by unshocked and weakly shocked clasts and derived from a deeper, central zone of the melt pool. Genetically, we distinguish between “primary suevite” which includes dike suevite, the lower sublayer of crater suevite, and possibly a basal layer of outer suevite, and “secondary suevite” represented by the massive upper sublayer of crater suevite and the main mass of outer suevite.