A new method of photometric calibration of photographic plats by a doubly refracting crystal filter

A filter composed of a crossed pair of doubly refracting crystals and a polaroid, mounted at the focal plane of the telescope, divides each star image into two images of constant intensity ratio. It is shown that such a filter arrangement is capable of providing reliable photographic calibration for stellar photometry.     

Neoproterozoic and Cambro-Ordovician magmatism in the Variscan Kłodzko Metamorphic Complex (West Sudetes,Poland): new insights from U/Pb zircon dating

The Kodzko Metamorphic Complex (KMC) in the Central Sudetes consists of meta-sedimentary and meta-igneous rocks metamorphosed under greenschist to amphibolite facies conditions. They are comprised in a number of separate tectonic units interpreted as thrust sheets. In contrast to other Lower Palaeozoic volcano-sedimentary successions in the Sudetes, the two uppermost units (the Orla-Googowy unit and the Kodzko Fortress unit) of the KMC contain meta-igneous rocks with supra-subduction zone affinities. The age of the KMC was previously assumed to be Early Palaeozoic–Devonian, based on biostratigraphic findings in the lowermost tectonic unit. Our geochronological study focused on the magmatic rocks from the two uppermost tectonic units, exposed in the SW part of the KMC. Two orthogneiss samples from the Orla-Googowy unit yielded ages of 500.4±3.1 and 500.2±4.9 Ma, interpreted to indicate the crystallization age of the granitic precursors. A plagioclase gneiss from the same tectonic unit, intimately interlayered with metagabbro, provided an upper intercept age of 590.1±7.2 Ma, which is interpreted as the time of igneous crystallization. From the topmost Kodzko Fortress unit, a metatuffite was studied, which contains a mixture of genetically different zircon grains. The youngest ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages, which cluster at ca. 590-600 Ma, are interpreted to indicate the maximum depositional age for this metasediment. The results of this study are in accord with a model that suggests a nappe structure for the KMC, with a Middle Devonian succession at the base and Upper Proterozoic units at structurally higher levels. It is suggested here that the KMC represents a composite tectonic suture that juxtaposes elements of pre-Variscan basement, intruded by the Lower Ordovician granite, against a Middle Palaeozoic passive margin succession. The new ages, combined with the overall geochemical variation in the KMC, indicate the existence of rock assemblages representing a Gondwana active margin. The recognition of Neoproterozoic subduction-related magmatism provides additional arguments for the hypothesis that equivalents of the Teplá-Barrandian domain are exposed in the Central Sudetes.     

Estimating reliability and resolution of probability forecasts through decomposition of the empirical score

Proper scoring rules provide a useful means to evaluate probabilistic forecasts. Independent from scoring rules, it has been argued that reliability and resolution are desirable forecast attributes. The mathematical expectation value of the score allows for a decomposition into reliability and resolution related terms, demonstrating a relationship between scoring rules and reliability/resolution. A similar decomposition holds for the empirical (i.e. sample average) score over an archive of forecast–observation pairs. This empirical decomposition though provides a too optimistic estimate of the potential score (i.e. the optimum score which could be obtained through recalibration), showing that a forecast assessment based solely on the empirical resolution and reliability terms will be misleading. The differences between the theoretical and empirical decomposition are investigated, and specific recommendations are given how to obtain better estimators of reliability and resolution in the case of the Brier and Ignorance scoring rule.     

Trends in extremes of temperature, dew point, and precipitation from long instrumental series from central Europe

For the analysis of trends in weather extremes, we introduce a diagnostic index variable, the exceedance product, which combines intensity and frequency of extremes. We separate trends in higher moments from trends in mean or standard deviation and use bootstrap resampling to evaluate statistical significances. The application of the concept of the exceedance product to daily meteorological time series from Potsdam (1893 to 2005) and Prague–Klementinum (1775 to 2004) reveals that extremely cold winters occurred only until the mid-20th century, whereas warm winters show upward trends. These changes were significant in higher moments of the temperature distribution. In contrast, trends in summer temperature extremes (e.g., the 2003 European heatwave) can be explained by linear changes in mean or standard deviation. While precipitation at Potsdam does not show pronounced trends, dew point does exhibit a change from maximum extremes during the 1960s to minimum extremes during the 1970s.     

European floods during the winter 1783/1784: scenarios of an extreme event during the ‘Little Ice Age’

The Lakagígar eruption in Iceland during 1783 was followed by the severe winter of 1783/1784, which was characterised by low temperatures, frozen soils, ice-bound watercourses and high rates of snow accumulation across much of Europe. Sudden warming coupled with rainfall led to rapid snowmelt, resulting in a series of flooding phases across much of Europe. The first phase of flooding occurred in late December 1783–early January 1784 in England, France, the Low Countries and historical Hungary. The second phase at the turn of February–March 1784 was of greater extent, generated by the melting of an unusually large accumulation of snow and river ice, affecting catchments across France and Central Europe (where it is still considered as one of the most disastrous known floods), throughout the Danube catchment and in southeast Central Europe. The third and final phase of flooding occurred mainly in historical Hungary during late March and early April 1784. The different impacts and consequences of the above floods on both local and regional scales were reflected in the economic and societal responses, material damage and human losses. The winter of 1783/1784 can be considered as typical, if severe, for the Little Ice Age period across much of Europe.     

A taxonomic survey of comet composition 1985-2004 using CCD spectroscopy

A summary is presented of our spectroscopic survey of comets extending for roughly 19 years from 1985 to 2004 comprising data for 92 comets of which 50 showed good emissions. All data were re-analyzed using consistent reduction techniques. Our observations of comets over several apparitions and comets observed over an extended period indicate no major changes in compositional classification. To our regret, no major unidentified cometary features were found in our surveyed spectral region of 5200-10400 Å. Absolute production rates for the dominant parent molecule H₂O and the daughter species C₂, NH₂ and CN are determined within the limits of the Haser model as are values for the dust continuum, Afρ. From these data, production rate ratios are calculated for C₂/H₂O, NH₂/H₂O, CN/H₂O and Afρ/H₂O. Excluding the odd Comets Yanaka (1988r), 43P/Wolf-Harrington and 19P/Borrelly, with unusual spectra, our set of comets exhibited relatively uniform composition. Detailed analyses of our data resulted in four taxonomic classes:

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Comets of typical composition (∼70%); exhibiting typical ratios with respect to water of C₂, NH₂, and CN.

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Tempel 1 type (∼22%); having a deficiency in C₂ but normal NH₂ abundance.

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G-Z type (∼6%); having both low C₂ and NH₂ ratios.

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The unusual object Yanaka (1988r) (∼2%?); no detectable C₂ or CN emission but normal NH₂.

It is uncertain whether there is a clear separation between the comets of typical composition and those with C₂ depletion, or whether the latter consists of a group showing a continuum of decreasing C₂/CN ratios. Our spectroscopic investigations result in a visual record of the various compositional classes, which are illustrated in a number of figures. Production rate comparisons with the comet photometry program of Schleicher and A'Hearn [A'Hearn, M.F., and 4 colleagues, 1995. Icarus 118, 223-270] for 13 comets in common yielded good agreement once the different scale lengths are taken into account. An investigation into the possible origin of our compositional groups with respect to dynamical families of comets shows that the Halley family exhibits essentially no C₂ depletion. These objects were presumably formed in the region of Saturn and Uranus and scattered into the Oort cloud. Comets formed in the space near Neptune, responsible for the scattered Kuiper Belt show a mixture of “typical” and C₂ depleted objects, while we associate comets formed in-situ in the classical Kuiper belt with our C₂ depleted group.     

Fluidization of buried mass-wasting deposits in lake sediments and its relevance for paleoseismology: Results from a reflection seismic study of lakes Villarrica and Calafquén (South-Central Chile)

A dense grid of very-high resolution seismic profiles on Lake Villarrica provides a quasi-3D view on intercalated lenses of low-amplitude reflections, which are connected by acoustic wipe-out patches and fractures to an underlying voluminous mass-wasting deposit. The lenses are interpreted as being created by earthquake-triggered liquefaction in this buried mass-wasting deposit and subsequent sediment fluidization and extrusion at the paleo-lake bottom. These sediment volcanoes are mapped in detail. They have a rather uniform circular geometry and show a linear relationship between apparent width and maximum thickness on a seismic section. The largest sediment volcanoes are up to 80 m wide and 1.9 m thick. Their slope angles designate a syn- to post-depositional sagging of most sediment volcanoes. Sediment volcano detection and mapping from nearby Lake Calafquén further strengthen the revealed geometrical relationships. Locally, some of the sediment/fluid escape structures extend to a higher position in the stratigraphy, which points to a polyphase escape process associated with multiple multi-century spaced strong earthquakes. Thickness and morphology of the source layer seem to exert a dominant control in the production of sediment/fluid extrusions. This study shows that reflection seismic profiling allowed recognizing 4 different seismic events in the studied stratigraphic interval, which are evidenced by mass-wasting deposits and/or fluidization features.     

The variation and controls of mean transit times in Australian headwater catchments

Determining mean transit times in headwater catchments is critical for understanding catchment functioning and understanding their responses to changes in landuse or climate. Determining whether mean transit times (MTTs) correlate with drainage density, slope angle, area, or land cover permits a better understanding of the controls on water flow through catchments and allows first-order predictions of MTTs in other catchments to be made. This study assesses whether there are identifiable controls on MTTs determined using ³H in headwater catchments of southeast Australia. Despite MTTs at baseflow varying from a few years to >100 years, it was difficult to predict MTTs using single or groups of readily-measured catchment attributes. The lack of readily-identifiable correlations hampers the prediction of MTTs in adjacent catchments even where these have similar geology, land use, and topography. The long MTTs of the Australian headwater catchments are probably in part due to the catchments having high storage volumes in deeply-weathered regolith, combined with low recharge rates due to high evapotranspiration. However, the difficulty in estimating storage volumes at the catchment scale hampers the use of this parameter to estimate MTTs. The runoff coefficient (the fraction of rainfall exported via the stream) is probably also controlled by evapotranspiration and recharge rates. Correlations between the runoff coefficient and MTTs in individual catchments allow predictions of MTTs in nearby catchments to be made. MTTs are shorter in high rainfall periods as the catchments wet up and shallow water stores are mobilized. Despite the contribution of younger water, the major ion geochemistry in individual catchments commonly does not correlate with MTTs, probably reflecting heterogeneous reactions and varying degrees of evapotranspiration. Documenting MTTs in catchments with high storage volumes and/or low recharge rates elsewhere is important for understanding MTTs in diverse environments.