Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan

ABSTRACT

“Panta Rhei – Everything Flows” is the science plan for the International Association of Hydrological Sciences scientific decade 2013–2023. It is founded on the need for improved understanding of the mutual, two-way interactions occurring at the interface of hydrology and society, and their role in influencing future hydrologic system change. It calls for strategic research effort focused on the delivery of coupled, socio-hydrologic models. In this paper we explore and synthesize opportunities and challenges that socio-hydrology presents for data-driven modelling. We highlight the potential for a new era of collaboration between data-driven and more physically-based modellers that should improve our ability to model and manage socio-hydrologic systems. Crucially, we approach data-driven, conceptual and physical modelling paradigms as being complementary rather than competing, positioning them along a continuum of modelling approaches that reflects the relative extent to which hypotheses and/or data are available to inform the model development process.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Influence of oscillating flow on hyporheic zone development

The hyporheic zone is an ecologically important ecotone that describes the extent to which nutrient-rich surface waters penetrate the shallow subsurface adjacent to a flowing surface water body. Although steady-state models satisfactorily explain the incursion of surface water into the subsurface as a function of head gradients developed across streambed riffles, they fail to account for the depth that surface water is observed to penetrate the subsurface or for the extent to which the hyporheic zone develops adjacent to the stream channel. To investigate these issues, transient flow modeling has been conducted at the riffle scale and supported by data for an instrumented site in northern Ontario where stream-stage fluctuations are strictly regulated. Model results show that daily stream-stage fluctuations between 0.6 and 4 m produce oscillating solute flow paths that typically reduce residence times of water and solutes in the hyporheic zone from 60 days or more under steady-state conditions to less than 1 day. Furthermore, similar stream-stage fluctuations increase the depth that solutes pervade the subsurface and banks lateral to the stream from around 1 m under steady-state conditions to as much as 2 and 10 m, respectively. The results demonstrate that the transient flow conditions triggered in the subsurface by variable stream stage can exert a strong influence on hyporheic zone development and have important implications for the hyporheos. The results are especially important for hyporheic communities that may survive gradual changes to their living conditions by migrating to more hospitable aquatic habitats, but are unable to respond to rapid changes provoked by more extreme hydrological events.     

Platinum-group elements in Cu-sulphide ores at Carolusberg and East Okiep, Namaqualand, South Africa

Cu-sulphide ores at Carolusberg and East Okiep have Cu/Ni ratios of up to 80, an order of magnitude higher than most magmatic sulphide ores elsewhere. In contrast, Se/S ratios (500–1700 × 10⁻⁶) and PGE tenors (up to 5 ppm) of the sulphides are in the range of more typical magmatic sulphide ores. The observed metal patterns may be explained by a process of monosulphide solid solution (mss) fractionation of a magmatic sulphide melt at depth, but this model is currently considered unlikely, due to the paucity of refractory ores in the district. Assimilation of Cu-rich country rocks during ascent of the Koperberg magmas proved difficult to test with the available data, but this provides no explanation for the common high-grade metamorphic setting of similar ores elsewhere. A restitic origin of the pyroxenites appears to explain many of the observed ore features and is presently favoured here. Desulphidization of a primary magmatic sulphide ore could not have yielded the observed metal patterns and is therefore considered to be of relatively minor importance in ore genesis. Received: 12 April 1999 / Accepted: 27 November 1999     

The concentrations of the noble metals in Southern African flood-type basalts and MORB: implications for petrogenesis and magmatic sulphide exploration

Concentrations of the platinum-group elements have been determined in several suites of southern African flood-type basalts and mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB), covering some 3 Ga of geologic evolution and including the Etendeka, Karoo, Soutpansberg, Machadodorp, Hekpoort, Ventersdorp and Dominion magmas. The magmas cover a compositional range from 3.7 to 18.7% MgO, 26–720 ppm Ni, 16–250 ppm Cu, and <1–255 ppb total platinum-group elements (PGE). The younger basalts (Etendeka, Karoo) tend to be depleted in PGE relative to Cu, while most of the older basalts (Hekpoort, Machadodorp, Ventersdorp, Dominion) show no PGE depletion relative to Cu. Further, the younger basalts tend to have lower average Pt/Pd ratios than the older basalts, and the MORBs have lower average Pt/Pd than the continental basalts within the broad groupings of "old" and "young" basalts. This may reflect (1) a decreasing degree of mantle melting through geologic time, and (2) source heterogeneity, in that the MORBs are derived from predominantly asthenospheric mantle, whereas the continental basalts also contain a lithospheric mantle component enriched in Pt. In addition to these factors, some PGE fractionation also occurred during differentiation of the magmas, with Pd showing incompatible behaviour and the other PGE variably compatible behaviour. The examined southern African flood-type basalts and MORB appear to offer limited prospects for magmatic sulfide ores, largely because they show little evidence for significant chalcophile metal depletion that could be the result of sulphide extraction during ascent and crystallization.Editorial responsibility: I. Parsons     

Magnetic properties of urban soil profile and their significance for traffic pollution-Case study of the capital airport expressway in Beijing

An expressway-side soil profile 22 cm long was sampled from the grassland of the expressway linking Beijing and the Capital International Airport. Magnetic measurements, geochemical and multivariate statistic analyses were performed on the soil samples. The results reveal that the soil profile can be divided into two parts with significant difference in magnetic proxies and heavy metal concentration. The uppermost soil horizon (0–8 cm) represents the pollution-rich layer with higher concentration of ferrimagnetic phases and metallic elements. The values of xare very high with an average of 141.60 × 10⁻⁸ m³·kg⁻¹ in the layer. We explain that the anthropogenic dust input from traffic is the predominant cause for strong signals of magnetic phases and heavy metals. Below the profile depth of 8 cm, there is minor pollution in the soil with lower concentration of magnetic minerals and heavy metals compared to the natural background values. χ remains quite stable and relatively low with an average of 49.44 × 10⁻⁸ m³·kg⁻¹. S-ratio also generally decreases with depth, and it changes from 0.93 in the 0–8 cm layer to 0.87 below the depth of 8 cm. It indicates that the soil samples are overwhelmingly predominated by ferrimagnetic minerals in the upper part soil, while the contribution of imperfect antiferromagnetic components is stronger in the lower part. Rock magnetic experiments show MD magnetite as the main magnetic carrier both in the upper and lower parts. Themagnetic grain size in the upper part is, however, a bit coarser than that in the lower part. Cluster analysis shows a positive correlation between magnetic properties (χ, ARM, SIRM) and heavy metal pollutants of Pb, Zn, Cu. Fuzzy C-means cluster analysis can clearly help divide the soil profile into two different layers and distinguish their characteristics. It can be concluded that these magnetic concentration-related parameters can be used as proxies for pollution investigation in a fast, sensitive, low-cost and highly efficient approach to screening heavy metal pollution. __________ Translated from Quaternary Sciences, 2007, 27(6): 1113-1120 [译自:第四纪研究]     

Recent variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier in the central Karakoram Himalaya and its possible teleconnections with the pacific decadal oscillation

This study discusses the formation and variations of supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro glacier system in the central Karakoram Himalaya during the last four decades. We mapped supraglacial lakes on the Baltoro Glacier from 1978 to 2014 using Landsat MSS, TM, ETM + and LCDM images. Most of the glacial lakes were formed or expanded during the late 1970s–2008. After 2008, the total number and the area of glacial lakes were found to be lesser compared to previous years. We tried to find any teleconnections exists between the glacial lake changes in this region and the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), which entered its prolonged warm regime in the late 1970s and again to its cold regime in 2008, based on observational investigation. The decrease in the number and area of the supraglacial lakes after 2008 is hypothesised to be linked with the recent cold phase of PDO.     

On the present habitats and ecology of Vertigo pseudosubstriata Ložek, 1954 (Mollusca,Gastropoda, Vertiginidea) in Central Asia and its distribution history in Central and Eastern Europe

The small terrestrial gastropod Vertigo pseudosubstriata Ložek, 1954 is one of the rarest glacial indicator species in the Pleistocene of Central and Eastern Europe. In all, this species has been found at only about 15 sites in Europe. V. pseudosubstriata was initially described as a fossil in Central Europe and was discovered only later alive in Central Asia. With regard to its modern distribution, 25 habitats with V. pseudosubstriata have been examined in Tien Shan and in the central and southern Altai. These findings seem to capture the contemporary distribution of the species and provide information on the boundaries of its ecological requirements. These data are of great significance for the interpretation of the fossil assemblages. Since the few fossil specimens in Europe date from very different glacial periods in the Elsterian, Saalian Complex and Weichselian, it can be concluded that V. pseudosubstriata apparently immigrated in at least three distinct waves. Most of the Pleistocene specimens in eastern Central Europe and Eastern Europe are reported from archaeological sites of the Upper Middle Weichselian (Gravettian), roughly between 33 and 29 ka cal bp. In this paper, we review all reported modern and fossil occurrences and discuss the species' ecological range.     

Data-driven modelling approaches for socio-hydrology: opportunities and challenges within the Panta Rhei Science Plan

ABSTRACT

“Panta Rhei – Everything Flows” is the science plan for the International Association of Hydrological Sciences scientific decade 2013–2023. It is founded on the need for improved understanding of the mutual, two-way interactions occurring at the interface of hydrology and society, and their role in influencing future hydrologic system change. It calls for strategic research effort focused on the delivery of coupled, socio-hydrologic models. In this paper we explore and synthesize opportunities and challenges that socio-hydrology presents for data-driven modelling. We highlight the potential for a new era of collaboration between data-driven and more physically-based modellers that should improve our ability to model and manage socio-hydrologic systems. Crucially, we approach data-driven, conceptual and physical modelling paradigms as being complementary rather than competing, positioning them along a continuum of modelling approaches that reflects the relative extent to which hypotheses and/or data are available to inform the model development process.

EDITOR D. Koutsoyiannis; ASSOCIATE EDITOR not assigned     

Grain-size variations of cumulus plagioclase in the upper critical zone of the Bushveld Complex

Summary Due to the slow equilibration rate of feldspar, its zoning pattern is likely to be of primary origin. Initial studies of zoning patterns of cumulus feldspar within the interval between the UG2 chromitite and the Merensky Reef have shown postcumulus growth to affect only the outermost rims of grains. Therefore, present-day grain sizes of plagioclase are considered to resemble the original cumulus grain sizes. A correlation between grain size of plagioclase and its composition and zoning pattern has been established: larger, complexly zoned grains correlate with more calcic compositions. It is inferred that the residence time of neutrally buoyant plagioclases within a periodically replenished host liquid determined their size and zoning pattern. Older and more calcic grains are larger and more complexly zoned, whereas finer grain sizes, which are associated with relatively primitive (Mg-rich) orthopyroxenes, are the result of partial resorption of plagioclase. Grain sizes of plagioclase, furthermore, show regional variation: grains are larger in the vicinity of Union Section than in the southeastern parts of the Western Bushveld Complex, which is interpreted as a consequence of the increasing distance from a putative feeder zone located near Union Section.

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Variationen in der Korngröße von Kumulus-Plagioklas in der Upper Critical Zone des Bushveld Komplexes

Zusammenfassung Aufgrund der hohen Reaktionsträgheit von Feldspat ist dessen Zonierung höchstwahrscheinlich primärer Natur. Einführende Untersuchungen über Zonierungsmuster in Kumulus-Plagioklas im Interval zwischen der UG2 Chromitit-Lage und dem Merensky-Reef zeigten, daß Postkumulus-Wachstum nur den äußeren Rand der einzelnen Körner kennzeichnet. Demzufolge wird angenommen, daß die hier beobachteten Korngrößen den ursprünglichen Kumulus-Korngrößen entsprechen. Eine Korrelation zwischen der Korngröße von Plagioklasen und deren Chemismus und Zonierungs-muster konnte etabliert werden: größere, komplex zonierte Plagioklase haben einen höheren Anorthit-Gehalt. Diese Beziehung erklärt sich aus der relativ niedrigen Dichte von Plagioklas, die ein gravitatives Absinken verhindert. Demzufolge wurden Korngröße und Zonierungsmuster der in Schwebe befindlichen Plagioklase von der Verweildaner innerhalb einer sich periodisch ernenernden Schmelze bestimmt. Ältere, Ca-reiche Plagioklase sind relativ groß und komplex zoniert, während feinere Korngrößen, die zusammen mit relativ primitiven (Mg-reichen) Orthopyroxenen auftreten, das Ergebnis partieller Assimilation sind. Regionale Unterschiede existieren insofern, als daß Plagioklas in der Nähe einer postulierten Magmen-Zufuhrzone im Bereich von Union Section grobkörniger ist als in den südöstlichen Bereichen des westlichen Bushveld Komplexes.

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With 9 Figures