Earthquake Forecasting in Diverse Tectonic Zones of the Globe

We present a simple method for long- and short-term earthquake forecasting (estimating earthquake rate per unit area, time, and magnitude). For illustration we apply the method to the Pacific plate boundary region and the Mediterranean area surrounding Italy and Greece. Our ultimate goal is to develop forecasting and testing methods to validate or falsify common assumptions regarding earthquake potential. Our immediate purpose is to extend the forecasts we made starting in 1999 for the northwest and southwest Pacific to include somewhat smaller earthquakes and then adapt the methods to apply in other areas. The previous forecasts used the CMT earthquake catalog to forecast magnitude 5.8 and larger earthquakes. Like our previous forecasts, the new ones here are based on smoothed maps of past seismicity and assume spatial clustering. Our short-term forecasts also assume temporal clustering. An important adaptation in the new forecasts is to abandon the use of tensor focal mechanisms. This permits use of earthquake catalogs that reliably report many smaller quakes with no such mechanism estimates. The result is that we can forecast earthquakes at higher spatial resolution and down to a magnitude threshold of 4.7. The new forecasts can be tested far more quickly because smaller events are considerably more frequent. Also, our previous method used the focal mechanisms of past earthquakes to estimate the preferred directions of earthquake clustering, however the method made assumptions that generally hold in subduction zones only. The new approach escapes those assumptions. In the northwest Pacific the new method gives estimated earthquake rate density very similar to that of the previous forecast.     

Thermal Impact of Residential Ground-Water Heat Pumps

A computer simulation study was conducted to quantify the potential thermal impact of residential water-source heat pump usage on ground-water aquifers. In a first phase of the study, weather data for nine locations throughout the country were used to estimate the energy requirements for heating and air conditioning a typical residence. These energy requirements were then translated into the volumetric water demands for a selected heat pump at each location. A representative model aquifer was then defined and its characteristics used, along with the heat pump water requirements and design ΔT's (difference between inlet and outlet water temperature) to identify the important parameters that contribute to heat transfer and to model the movement of the thermal front resulting from injection of heat pump discharge water at the nine locations. The major factor that determines the heat pump thermal impact was found to be the net amount of heat injected into, or removed from an aquifer. Other significant factors included well design, heat pump design ΔT, and physical properties of the aquifer such as thickness, porosity and dispersivity. The study showed that, in climates where winter heating demand is very nearly equal to summer cooling demands, the injection of heat pump discharge water did not cause any significant modification of the ambient model aquifer temperature. However, in hot or cold climates where air conditioning or heating demand dominates, measurable thermal changes occurred in the model aquifer. In most cases, the maximum temperature     

Model estimates for the interaction of wind waves and tides in the Pechora Basin-White Sea subsystem

The “weak-interaction” approximation is used to investigate the role of wind waves in tidal dynamics. The resulting expression for the drag coefficient in the wave-affected tidal flow is incorporated into the QUODDY-4 three-dimensional finite-element hydrothermodynamic model, and the thus modified model is used to calculate the K ₁ diurnal tide in the Pechora Basin-White Sea subsystem. It is shown that, depending on a combination of local and nonlocal factors, wind waves can cause opposite variations in the amplitudes and phases of tidal oscillations of the level. Local factors control variations in the tidal regime nearly in the entire water area of the subsystem under consideration, apart from the eastern part of the Pechora Basin, the outlet from the White Sea Throat, and Dvina Bay. In the aforementioned areas, the tidal regime changes are due either to the displacement of the nearest amphidromy or to other nonlocal factors resulting from the reorganization of the fields of tidal characteristics. It is also shown that the variations in tidal characteristics induced by wind waves vary within a fairly wide range and that allowance for the interaction of wind waves and tides improves the agreement between calculated and observed values of the amplitudes and phases of tidal oscillations of the level.     

On the variability of tidal constants induced by the influence of one subsystem on another

It is stated that the seasonal variation of tidal constants may be generated through a mechanism related to the influence of one subsystem on another. This statement is verified on the basis of the three-dimensional nonlinear finite-element thermohydrodynamic model QUODDY-4, which is used to investigate the tidal dynamics of the wave M ₂ in the system of the White and Barents seas. It is testified that the freezing of the White Sea and the resulting fixed ice cover change the tidal characteristics in the other subsystem—the nonfreezing Barents Sea. Here (especially, in the southern part of the Barents Sea, adjacent to the boundary of the White Sea), the relative variations in the amplitude of tidal sea surface level elevations and the maximum barotropic tidal velocity may constitute up to 75%, and the variation in phases of tidal sea surface level elevations may cover a few tens of degrees. It follows that the seasonal variability of tidal constants induced by the influence of one subsystem on another may in principal occur and there are no good grounds for its disregard, as has been done usually.     

Numerical analysis of seismoelectric wave propagation in spatially confined geological units

Using numerical modelling, we investigate the evolution of seismoelectric effects induced by seismic excitation in spatially confined lithological units. Typical geometries represent clay lenses embedded in an aquifer or petroleum deposits in a host rock. In fluid‐saturated rocks, seismic waves can generate electromagnetic fields due to electrokinetic coupling mechanisms associated with such processes in the vicinity of the fluid‐mineral interface. Two seismoelectric phenomena are investigated: (1) the co‐seismic field associated with the seismic displacement at each point in a subsurface and (2) the interface response generated at layer boundaries. Our modelling uses a simplified time‐domain formulation of the coupled problem and an efficient 2D finite‐element implementation. To gain insight into the morphogenetic field behaviour of the seismoelectric effects, several numerical simulations for various target geometries were treated. Accordingly, we varied both the thickness of the confined units and the value of the electrical bulk conductivity in porous media. Analysis of these effects shows differences between interface responses for electrically conductive versus resistive units. So the pertinent contrast in electrical bulk conductivity controls the shape and structure of these seismoelectric conversion patterns. Moreover, the seismoelectric interface response captures both the petrophysical and geometrical characteristics of the geological unit. These models demonstrate the value of using seismoelectric interface response for reservoir characterization in either hydrogeological or hydrocarbon exploration studies.     

Assessment of the reliability of 2D inversion of apparent resistivity data

The reliability of inversion of apparent resistivity pseudosection data to determine accurately the true resistivity distribution over 2D structures has been investigated, using a common inversion scheme based on a smoothness‐constrained non‐linear least‐squares optimization, for the Wenner array. This involved calculation of synthetic apparent resistivity pseudosection data, which were then inverted and the model estimated from the inversion was compared with the original 2D model. The models examined include (i) horizontal layering, (ii) a vertical fault, (iii) a low‐resistivity fill within a high‐resistivity basement, and (iv) an upfaulted basement block beneath a conductive overburden. Over vertical structures, the resistivity models obtained from inversion are usually much sharper than the measured data. However, the inverted resistivities can be smaller than the lowest, or greater than the highest, true model resistivity. The substantial reduction generally recorded in the data misfit during the least‐squares inversion of 2D apparent resistivity data is not always accompanied by any noticeable reduction in the model misfit. Conversely, the model misfit may, for all practical purposes, remain invariant for successive iterations. It can also increase with the iteration number, especially where the resistivity contrast at the bedrock interface exceeds a factor of about 10; in such instances, the optimum model estimated from inversion is attained at a very low iteration number. The largest model misfit is encountered in the zone adjacent to a contact where there is a large change in the resistivity contrast. It is concluded that smooth inversion can provide only an approximate guide to the true geometry and true formation resistivity.     

A probabilistic seismic hazard assessment for the Turkish territory—part I: the area source model

The seismic zoning map of Turkey that is used in connection with the national seismic design code (versions issued both in 1997 and 2007) is based on a probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted more than 20 years ago (Gülkan et al. in En son verilere göre haz?rlanan Türkiye deprem bölgeleri haritas?, Report No: METU/EERC 93-1, 1993). In line with the efforts for the update of the seismic design code, the need aroused for an updated seismic hazard map, incorporating recent data and state-of-the-art methodologies and providing ground motion parameters required for the construction of the design spectra stipulated by the new Turkish Earthquake Design Code. Supported by AFAD (Disaster and Emergency Management Authority of Turkey), a project has been conducted for the country scale assessment of the seismic hazard by probabilistic methods. The present paper describes the probabilistic seismic hazard assessment study conducted in connection with this project, incorporating in an area source model, all recently compiled data on seismicity and active faulting, and using a set of recently developed ground motion prediction equations, for both active shallow crustal and subduction regimes, evaluated as adequately representing the ground motion characteristics in the region. The area sources delineated in the model are fully parameterized in terms of maximum magnitude, depth distribution, predominant strike and dip angles and mechanism of possible ruptures. Resulting ground motion distributions are quantified and presented for PGA and 5 % damped spectral accelerations at T = 0.2 and 1.0 s, associated with return periods of 475 and 2475 years. The full set of seismic hazard curves was also made available for the hazard computation sites. The second part of the study, which is based on a fault source and smoothed seismicity model is covered in Demircioglu et al. in Bull Earthq Eng, (2016).