Wind Speed Forecasting from 1 to 30 Minutes

Summary The long lifetime and high intensity of vortex trails generated by landing large-capacity aircraft may cause a risk to subsequently landing planes. A wake vortex warning system can help to avoid such hazards by forecasting the time intervals permitting safe operation on the landing strip. This information provides the basis for an appropriate landing schedule based on reduced succession distances. An essential element of the warning system is the prediction of wind across the landing strip and this is commonly determined by a method based on the principle of persistence. This study shows that autoregressive (AR) modelling can improve the accuracy of crosswind forecasts. To this end, the measurements are analysed in order to estimate model parameters. Unlike the more simplistic previously used method, AR forecasting, as part of the vortex trail warning system, allows longer intervals for safe operation and can avoid forecast discontinuities (leaps) which are inherent problems of all forecasts in which boundary layer processes have to be considered. Received June 10, 1997 Revised October 6, 1997     

In search of polar warming

Summary Greenhouse warming, although predicted to become especially pronounced in the polar regions, will be obscured there by the short-lived anomalies that are characteristic of polar climates. To detect a warming it then becomes necessary to examine and compare statistical parameters of such quasi-steady interludes. A new change index (CI) is proposed and used to demonstrate that a warming at four Alaskan airfields, reported by Bowling (1991), represented a distinct change from the temperature mean and/or variance of the preceding few years, and was followed by a slightly cooler regime that has persisted through 1994.With 3 Figures     

Optical tomography of the aurora and EISCAT

Tomographic reconstruction of the three-dimensional auroral are emission is used to obtain vertical and horizontal distributions of the optical auroral emission. Under the given experimental conditions with a very limited angular range and a small number of observers, algebraic reconstruction methods generally yield better results than transform techniques. Different algebraic reconstruction methods are tested with an auroral are model and the best results are obtained with an iterative least-square method adapted from emission-computed tomography. The observation geometry used during a campaign in Norway in 1995 is tested with the are model and root-mean-square errors, to be expected under the given geometrical conditions, are calculated. Although optimum geometry was not used, root-mean-square errors of less than 2% for the images and of the order of 30% for the distribution could be obtained. The method is applied to images from real observations. The correspondence of original pictures and projections of the reconstructed volume is discussed, and emission profiles along magnetic field lines through the three-dimensionally reconstructed arc are calibrated into electron density profiles with additional EISCAT measurements. Including a background profile and the temporal changes of the electron density due to recombination, good agreement can be obtained between measured profiles and the time-sequence of calculated profiles. These profiles are used to estimate the conductivity distribution in the vicinity of the EISCAT site. While the radar can only probe the ionosphere along the radar beam, the three-dimensional tomography enables conductivity estimates in a large area around the radar site.Former address: MPE Garching     

Kalman filtering in groundwater flow modelling: problems and prospects

The popularity of applying filtering theory in the environmental and hydrological sciences passed its first climax in the 1970s. Like so many other new mathematical methods it was simply the fashion at the time. The study of groundwater systems was not immune to this fashion, but neither was it by any means a prominent area of application. The spatial-temporal characteristics of groundwater flow are customarily described by analytical or, more frequently, numerical, physics-based models. Consequently, the state-space representations associated with filtering must be of a high order, with an immediately apparent computational over-burden. And therein lies part of the reason for the but modest interest there has been in applying Kalman filtering to groundwater systems, as reviewed critically in this paper. Filtering theory may be used to address a variety of problems, such as: state estimation and reconstruction, parameter estimation (including the study of uncertainty and its propagation), combined state-parameter estimation, input estimation, estimation of the variance-covariance properties of stochastic disturbances, the design of observation networks, and the analysis of parameter identifiability. A large proportion of previous studies has dealt with the problem of parameter estimation in one form or another. This may well not remain the focus of attention in the future. Instead, filtering theory may find wider application in the context of data assimilation, that is, in reconstructing fields of flow and the migration of sub-surface contaminant plumes from relatively sparse observations. Received: October 27, 1997     

Kernel bandwidth selection for a first order nonparametric streamflow simulation model

A new approach for streamflow simulation using nonparametric methods was described in a recent publication (Sharma et al. 1997). Use of nonparametric methods has the advantage that they avoid the issue of selecting a probability distribution and can represent nonlinear features, such as asymmetry and bimodality that hitherto were difficult to represent, in the probability structure of hydrologic variables such as streamflow and precipitation. The nonparametric method used was kernel density estimation, which requires the selection of bandwidth (smoothing) parameters. This study documents some of the tests that were conduced to evaluate the performance of bandwidth estimation methods for kernel density estimation. Issues related to selection of optimal smoothing parameters for kernel density estimation with small samples (200 or fewer data points) are examined. Both reference to a Gaussian density and data based specifications are applied to estimate bandwidths for samples from bivariate normal mixture densities. The three data based methods studied are Maximum Likelihood Cross Validation (MLCV), Least Square Cross Validation (LSCV) and Biased Cross Validation (BCV2). Modifications for estimating optimal local bandwidths using MLCV and LSCV are also examined. We found that the use of local bandwidths does not necessarily improve the density estimate with small samples. Of the global bandwidth estimators compared, we found that MLCV and LSCV are better because they show lower variability and higher accuracy while Biased Cross Validation suffers from multiple optimal bandwidths for samples from strongly bimodal densities. These results, of particular interest in stochastic hydrology where small samples are common, may have importance in other applications of nonparametric density estimation methods with similar sample sizes and distribution shapes. Received: November 12, 1997     

Gravity anomalies and subsurface geology in the Westerwald volcanic area, Germany

The area of the present study constitutes an alkaline volcanic province in the eastern sector of the Rhenish massif. A series of gravity measurements were carried out on the volcanic fields of the Westerwald. Three-dimensional modelling and wavelength filtering processing techniques were used to analyze the gravity data. The filtered Bouguer anomaly maps show two major regional gravity features: (a) Increasing Bouguer values towards the northeastern part of the study area could be caused by lateral lithological variations within the upper crust. (2) Local negative Bouguer values in the southwest correlate with magmatic materials of intermediate type. The modelling results indicate that the volcanics of the Westerwald are underlain by two different magmatic complexes at a depth in the range 3.3–10 km with density values of 2680 and 2750 kg/m³. The densities assigned to the local igneous intrusions are in the range of 2314–2948 kg/m³ and at depths between 0.4 and 1.3 km. In the NE a diabase bed was modelled to a maximum depth of approximately 1.6 km using the assigned density of 2800 kg/m³.     

On laboratory studies of grains from outside the solar system

An overview is given of the identified surviving presolar grains in primitive meteorites. Two of these phases are discussed in more detail: (a) Presolar silicon carbide, with special emphasis on heavy element isotopic compositions which trace the slow neutron capture process (s-process) of nucleosynthesis. It is argued that there are problems either with the grain or neutron capture cross section data or with current basic understanding of heavy element nucleosynthesis, (b) Presolar diamonds, where new developments are discussed concerning the origin of the (supernova) Xenon-HL component thought to be contained within them; in addition, arguments are presented in favor of diverse carrier phases for the various Xe components observed in diamond separates.     

Geochemical demobilization of metallic pollutants in solid waste—implications for arsenic in waterworks sludges

During stabilization or demobilization of contaminants in solid waste materials, different approaches can be taken, which also can be combined: (1) sufficient long-term buffer capacity can be provided, according to the environmental conditions; (2) permeability for dissolved contaminants can be reduced by secondary mineral precipitations or by soft gels injected into the pore space of the waste body; and (3) new formations of ‘reservoir minerals' can incorporate potential pollutants in their internal structure. Emphasizing the geochemical engineering approach, two examples are presented from the field of water management, both focussing on the demobilization of arsenic species. The first example (after Driehaus, W., 1994. Arsenentfernung mit Mangandioxid und Eisenhydroxid in der Trinkwasseraufbereitung. Vol. 133, Ser. 15, VDI-Reports, Düsseldorf, 117 pp.) relates to the problems during purification of arsenic-rich raw water, suggesting the potential application of iron and manganese oxide minerals as oxidizing agents and mineral lattice structures for the elimination of arsenic. In the second example, contaminated sludges from water treatment plants were investigated for their leaching characteristics and long-term stability. A pH-stat test procedure was used to assess the leaching characteristics of metals at typical pH values. Due to the presence of iron and manganese oxides pentavalent arsenic is protected against conversion into the mobile trivalent form at neutral to low pH. Experimental data suggest that co-disposal with reducing organic matter and alkaline stabilization material or wastes could negatively influence the binding properties and, therefore, should be avoided.