The vorticity and angular momentum budgets of Asian summer monsoon

The study delineates the vorticity and angular momentum balances of Asian summer monsoon during the evolution and established phases. It also elucidates the differences between these balances in the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) reanalysis and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (NCMRWF) analysis fields. The NCEP/NCAR reanalysis for a 40 year period (1958-97) and the NCMRWF analysis for a three year (1994-96) period are made use of for the purpose. The time mean summer monsoon circulation is bifurcated into stable mean and transient eddy components and the mean component is elucidated. The generation of vorticity due to stretching of isobars balances most of the vorticity transported out of the monsoon domain during the evolution period. However, during the established period, the transportation by the relative and planetary vorticity components exceeds the generation due to stretching. The effective balancing mechanism is provided by vorticity generation due to sub-grid scale processes. The flux convergence of omega and relative momenta over the monsoon domain is effectively balanced by pressure torque during the evolution and established phases. Nevertheless, the balance is stronger during the established period due to the increase in the strength of circulation. Both the NCMRWF and NCEP fields indicate the mean features related to vorticity and angular momentum budgets realistically. Apart from the oceanic bias (strong circulation over oceans rather than continents), the summer monsoon circulation indicated by the NCEP is feeble compared to NCMRWF. The significant terms in the large-scale budgets of vorticity and angular momentum enunciate this aspect     

Influence of southern oscillation and SSTs over Nino-3.4 region on the winter monsoon rainfall over coastal Andhra Pradesh

An analysis of the mean monthly data of 124 years reveals that the relationship between the Southern Oscillation Index in September and the winter monsoon rainfall (WMR) over Coastal Andhra Pradesh (CAP) is variable and non-stationary. In the recent four decades, however, SOI (Sept) is negatively and significantly correlated with CAP WMR. A similar analysis is performed using 50 years of mean monthly SSTs over Nino-3.4 region in August and September and CAP WMR to detect a possible relationship and there is a striking positive relation between them. In both of the above cases, the September signal is more significant in the recent four decades than for the other months and seasons for probable prediction of CAP WMR. Finally, to examine the influence of SO on the winter monsoon rainfall, a non-parametric test “Mann-Whitney Rank Statistics” test has been applied to the rainfall associated with extreme positive and negative SOI events     

Implications of climatic variability and climate change for water resources availability and management in West Africa

The paper examines: (a) trends in climatic variations and variability with particular emphasis on rainfall (b) the characteristics of climatic events, including floods and droughts, (c) seasonal variations in river flows, (d) mean annual trends in river flows and discharges, (e) local variations of extremes of rainfall and river discharges, (f) the effects of climatic variability and climate change on ground water variations, (g) the problems of acute shortage of freshwater, and (h) the prevalence of water stress whose characteristics would be worsened with the projected impacts of climate change. The results show that: (i) there are a lot of spatial and temporal variations in the characteristics of rainfall and the hydrological systems locally and regionally, although in general, there have been downward trends in rainfall and increases in water deficits and drought events, (ii) that flood events, which also have impacted adversely in many parts of the region, have also been witnessed. The paper then produces projections for future urban and rural water supplies in Nigeria, which is an epitome of West Africa and examines the two main categories of adaptation measures needed to improve water management, namely, those involving the water supply and water demand systems in the study region. Finally, the paper discusses the need to address a number of mechanisms for implementation of the various adaptation measures including: (a) building capacity and manpower, (b) promoting education and public awareness, (c) public participation and the involvement of stakeholders, (d) the establishment of both national and regional co-operation, and (e) the need for climatic and other environmental data collection and monitoring. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Loss of orbital angular momentum in close binary systems during their evolution

A total 91 binary systems of systemic mass less than 6.5M have been studied. It is found that binary systems obey the relation: logH=C–1.8 logM whereC is constant having values –1.18, –2.12 and –2.27 respectively for detached, semi-detached and contact binary systems. It is inferred that during evolution, the systemic orbital angular momentum decreases.     

Can Trees Buy Time? An Assessment of the Role of Vegetation Sinks as Part of the Global Carbon Cycle

Atmospheric CO₂ concentrations can be reduced by storing carbon in vegetation. However, this lowers the concentration gradient between the atmosphere and other potential carbon reservoirs, such as the oceans, and thereby reduces the subsequent inherent rate of removal of CO₂ from the atmosphere. Hence, storage of carbon in temporary reservoirs can reduce atmospheric CO₂ concentrations in the short term, but if the carbon is released again, it will increase concentrations in the long term. It must, therefore, be considered when, or, indeed whether, to store carbon in vegetation sinks.To determine an optimal strategy, the exact nature of climate-change impacts needs to be considered first. Impacts can be mediated by:1. the direct and instantaneous effect of CO₂ and its associated temperature;2. the rate of change in CO₂ and its associated temperature;3. the cumulative effect of CO₂ and its associated temperature.Carbon stored in permanently maintained vegetation sinks can lower atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, but this can be done most effectively if sequestration occurs close to the time when atmospheric concentrations are to be lowered. Similarly, maximal rates of change can be most effectively reduced by carbon sequestration close to the time of anticipated maximal rates of change. For reducing impacts via cumulative forcing, however, early sink activity would be more effective than delayed activity.Temporary carbon stores would only be beneficial for climate change impacts related to the cumulative impact of CO₂, but it could even worsen impacts mediated via the instantaneous effect of temperature or those related to the rate of change. Hence, the planting of trees is only beneficial in reducing climate-change impacts if the most serious impacts are those related to the cumulative effect of increased temperature. If other impacts are more serious, then the planting of trees would bring greater benefits if it is delayed until closer to the time when the most severe impacts are to be expected. However, if serious land degradation would result from deforestation, or from a failure to plant trees in the near future, then trees should still be planted in order to maximise the amount of carbon stored on land.     

Secular variation in numerical geodynamo models with lateral variations of boundary heat flow

We study magnetic field variations in numerical models of the geodynamo, with convection driven by nonuniform heat flow imposed at the outer boundary. We concentrate on cases with a boundary heat flow pattern derived from seismic anomalies in the lower mantle. At a Rayleigh number of about 100 times critical with respect to the onset of convection, the magnetic field is dominated by the axial dipole component and has a similar spectral distribution as Earth’s historical magnetic field on the core-mantle boundary (CMB). The time scales of variation of the low-order Gauss coefficients in the model agree within a factor of two with observed values. We have determined the averaging time interval needed to delineate deviations from the axial dipole field caused by the boundary heterogeneity. An average over 2000 years (the archeomagnetic time scale) is barely sufficient to reveal the long-term nondipole field. The model shows reduced scatter in virtual geomagnetic pole positions (VGPs) in the central Pacific, consistent with the weak secular variation observed in the historical field. Longitudinal drift of magnetic field structures is episodic and differs between regions. Westward magnetic drift is most pronounced beneath the Atlantic in our model. Although frozen flux advection by the large-scale flow is generally insufficient to explain the magnetic drift rates, there are some exceptions. In particular, equatorial flux spot pairs produced by expulsion of toroidal magnetic field are rapidly advected westward in localized equatorial jets which we interpret as thermal winds.     

焉耆盆地侏罗系煤系源岩评价与成烃机理研究

在对焉耆盆地已钻探井暗色泥岩、碳质泥岩等生油岩和部分原油样品地球化学分析的基础上,结合构造,特别是沉积和岩相古地理特征,研究了烃源岩类型及空间展布,煤系源岩有机显微组分组成及生烃机理,有机质丰度、类型及成熟度特征,指出烃源岩类型属典型的腐殖型;侏罗系八道湾组、三工河组和西山窑组煤系泥岩、炭质泥岩及煤均能生烃,但以侏罗系八道湾组煤系泥岩为主要烃源岩;博湖坳陷南、北凹陷都经历过油气形成过程,但北部凹陷存在两个生油阶段,而南部凹陷仅存在一个生油阶段。     

ON THE INFLUENCE OF TURBULENCE ON THE INITIATION OF SEDIMENT MOTION

1 PROBLEM DEFINITION Owing to the practical importance of the initiation of motion many researchers began to tackle this problem even at the beginning of the last century (e.g. Kramer (1932, 1935), Casey (1935)). Shields (1936, Fig. 1) developed a non-dimensional representation based on the measured data of Casey, Kramer, USWES and Gilbert, together with his own data based on investigations with succinite sand, lignite, granite chips and heavy spar. Despite the different material p…     

Estimation of the time-dependent crustal movements of the zmit Earthquake

The 17 August 1999 zmit earthquake significantly deformed the earth's crust in the Marmara Region, especially in the Gölcük–Sapanca Zone, Turkey. It broke a 150-km long segment of the northern branch of North Anatolian Fault Zone. The geodetically determined moment magnitude was M_w=7.5. Global Positioning System (GPS) sites, which are a small subset of the Marmara Continuous GPS Network (MAGNET), and survey sites in the region were studied to estimate coseismic and postseismic deformations, using different methodologies with linear, quadratic and exponential kinematic models. Six GPS epochs for these sites, which were carried out before and after the 17 August 1999 zmit earthquake, were used to define the kinematic models. The quadratic deformation model was also applied to determine the time-dependent crustal movement parameters (velocity and acceleration) of the sites, using the Kalman filter technique. In order to show the differences between the models, the estimated deformation fields on the last epoch were compared. In all models, as expected, the faults near the sites show large coseismic displacements with fault parallel direction, whereas the far sites show small coseismic displacements due to the effects of the zmit earthquake. Each kinematic model, fitted to the epochs after the earthquake, shows different behaviour. While the linear model shows insufficient results, the nonlinear models (quadratic and exponential) give the best fitted to the postseismic deformations. As a result of Kalman filter analysis, the fault near-sites shows significant velocities with fault parallel direction, whereas the far sites have insignificant velocities. All stations have insignificant accelerations in the last epoch.     

A study on the structure of the convective atmosphere over the Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-99

Convective activity is one of the major processes in the atmosphere influencing the local and large-scale weather in the tropics. The latent heat released by the cumulus cloud is known to drive monsoon circulation, which on the other hand supplies the moisture that maintains the cumulus clouds. An investigation is carried out on the convective structure of the atmosphere during active and suppressed periods of convection using data sets obtained from the Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX). The cumulus convection though being a small-scale phenomenon, still influences its embedding environment by interaction through various scales. This study shows the variation in the kinematic and convective parameters during the transition from suppressed to active periods of convection. Convergence in the lower levels and strong upward vertical velocity, significant during active convection are associated with the formation of monsoon depressions. The apparent heat source due to latent heat release and the vertical transport of the eddy heat by cumulus convection, and the apparent moisture sink due to net condensation and vertical divergence of the eddy transport of moisture, are estimated through residuals of the thermodynamic equation and examined in relation to monsoon activity during BOBMEX.