A climate change simulation starting from 1935

Due to restrictions in the available computing resources and a lack of suitable observational data, transient climate change experiments with global coupled ocean-atmosphere models have been started from an initial state at equilibrium with the present day forcing. The historical development of greenhouse gas forcing from the onset of industrialization until the present has therefore been neglected. Studies with simplified models have shown that this cold start error leads to a serious underestimation of the anthropogenic global warming. In the present study, a 150-year integration has been carried out with a global coupled ocean-atmosphere model starting from the greenhouse gas concentration observed in 1935, i.e., at an early time of industrialization. The model was forced with observed greenhouse gas concentrations up to 1985, and with the equivalent C0₂ concentrations stipulated in Scenario A (Business as Usual) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change from 1985 to 2085. The early starting date alleviates some of the cold start problems. The global mean near surface temperature change in 2085 is about 0.3 K (ca. 10%) higher in the early industrialization experiment than in an integration with the same model and identical Scenario A greenhouse gas forcing, but with a start date in 1985. Comparisons between the experiments with early and late start dates show considerable differences in the amplitude of the regional climate change patterns, particularly for sea level. The early industrialization experiment can be used to obtain a first estimate of the detection time for a greenhouse-gas-induced near-surface temperature signal. Detection time estimates are obtained using globally and zonally averaged data from the experiment and a long control run, as well as principal component time series describing the evolution of the dominant signal and noise modes. The latter approach yields the earliest detection time (in the decade 1990–2000) for the time-evolving near-surface temperature signal. For global-mean temperatures or for temperatures averaged between 45°N and 45°S, the signal detection times are in the decades 2015–2025 and 2005–2015, respectively. The reduction of the cold start error in the early industrialization experiment makes it possible to separate the near-surface temperature signal from the noise about one decade earlier than in the experiment starting in 1985. We stress that these detection times are only valid in the context of the coupled model's internally-generated natural variability, which possibly underestimates low frequency fluctuations and does not incorporate the variance associated with changes in external forcing factors, such as anthropogenic sulfate aerosols, solar variability or volcanic dust.     

黑河流域大气资料尺度转换的对比分析

尺度转换是解决尺度差异问题的有效方法之一。尺度转换统计模式的可靠性和正确性如何,在很大程度上取决于建立统计模式时所用的实际气象资料的处理,尤其在下垫面分布极不均匀地区。本文研究了黑河流域这一复杂下垫面条件下的大气资料的尺度转换问题,对比分析了由NCEP再分析资料直接内插到较小尺度而得到的局地气候变化与由尺度转换统计模式,经过客观分析所得到的局地气候变化。结果表明,直接插值所得的细网格值只能用于对平坦地区的温、湿状况的描述,而对较高山区的区域特征描述不够;进行观测资料的客观分析可以更准确地反映黑河流域复杂下垫面背景下近地层大气要素场的变化。研究表明,客观分析过程是尺度转换过程的重要环节。     

Thermal and exhumation history of the central Rwenzori Mountains, Western Rift of the East African Rift System, Uganda

The Rwenzori Mountains (Mtns) in west Uganda are the highest rift mountains on Earth and rise to more than 5,000 m. We apply low-temperature thermochronology (apatite fission-track (AFT) and apatite (U–Th–Sm)/He (AHe) analysis) for tracking the cooling history of the Rwenzori Mtns. Samples from the central and northern Rwenzoris reveal AFT ages between 195.0 (±8.4) Ma and 85.3 (±5.3) Ma, and AHe ages between 210.0 (±6.0) Ma to 24.9 (±0.5) Ma. Modelled time–temperature paths reflect a protracted cooling history with accelerated cooling in Permo-Triassic and Jurassic times, followed by a long period of constant and slow cooling, than succeeded by a renewed accelerated cooling in the Neogene. During the last 10 Ma, differentiated erosion and surface uplift affected the Rwenzori Mtns, with more pronounced uplift along the western flank. The final rock uplift of the Rwenzori Mtns that partly led to the formation of the recent topography must have been fast and in the near past (Pliocene to Pleistocene). Erosion could not compensate for the latest rock uplift, resulting in Oligocene to Miocene AHe ages.     

Taconic Orogeny in Pennsylvania: A 15 –20 m.y. Apennine-style Ordovician event viewed from its Martic hinterland

In Pennsylvania, the Taconic Orogeny lasted from 461 to 443 Ma as Cambro-Ordovician slope deposits were deformed into mountains edging the Laurentian craton at the same time that materials from an adjacent deep-water basin were being transported 50 –70 km across a carbonate platform into foreland basins. This paper focuses on shelf-edge hinterland features, mostly the Martic Zone as a folded, stack of imbricate thrust sheets of slope materials that corresponds to Vermont's Taconic Mountains and Southern Quebec's zone of Taconic allochthons. Work of the last century is summarized, corrected, and combined with a new 450 Ma radiometric date and fluid inclusion data from the Pequea Mine within the Martic Zone. These and abundant new graptolite and conodont dates in the foreland paint a revised Pennsylvania picture differing from the northern Taconic areas. Differences are: (1) transport of very large allochthonous masses of deep-water material, the Dauphin Formation, far across the carbonate platform, and (2) deformation migrating progressively across that platform during a 15 –20 m.y. period, incorporating it and its foreland cover into alpine-scale, recumbent folds and thrusts. The scenario has many analogies to Italy's modern Apennine Mountains minus the Latian volcanics.     

Phase center modeling for LEO GPS receiver antennas and its impact on precise orbit determination

Most satellites in a low-Earth orbit (LEO) with demanding requirements on precise orbit determination (POD) are equipped with on-board receivers to collect the observations from Global Navigation Satellite systems (GNSS), such as the Global Positioning System (GPS). Limiting factors for LEO POD are nowadays mainly encountered with the modeling of the carrier phase observations, where a precise knowledge of the phase center location of the GNSS antennas is a prerequisite for high-precision orbit analyses. Since 5 November 2006 (GPS week 1400), absolute instead of relative values for the phase center location of GNSS receiver and transmitter antennas are adopted in the processing standards of the International GNSS Service (IGS). The absolute phase center modeling is based on robot calibrations for a number of terrestrial receiver antennas, whereas compatible antenna models were subsequently derived for the remaining terrestrial receiver antennas by conversion (from relative corrections), and for the GNSS transmitter antennas by estimation. However, consistent receiver antenna models for space missions such as GRACE and TerraSAR-X, which are equipped with non-geodetic receiver antennas, are only available since a short time from robot calibrations. We use GPS data of the aforementioned LEOs of the year 2007 together with the absolute antenna modeling to assess the presently achieved accuracy from state-of-the-art reduced-dynamic LEO POD strategies for absolute and relative navigation. Near-field multipath and cross-talk with active GPS occultation antennas turn out to be important and significant sources for systematic carrier phase measurement errors that are encountered in the actual spacecraft environments. We assess different methodologies for the in-flight determination of empirical phase pattern corrections for LEO receiver antennas and discuss their impact on POD. By means of independent K-band measurements, we show that zero-difference GRACE orbits can be significantly improved from about 10 to 6 mm K-band standard deviation when taking empirical phase corrections into account, and assess the impact of the corrections on precise baseline estimates and further applications such as gravity field recovery from kinematic LEO positions.     

Evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey

A review on the historical evolution of seismic hazard maps in Turkey is followed by summarizing the important aspects of the updated national probabilistic seismic hazard maps. Comparisons with the predecessor probabilistic seismic hazard maps as well as the implications on the national design codes conclude the paper.     

Multi-species chemical data assimilation with the Danish Eulerian hemispheric model: system description and verification

Satellite retrievals of atmospheric composition provide a wealth of data on a global scale. These complement results from atmospheric chemistry-transport models (CTMs), and can be combined using data assimilation. We present two assimilation schemes coupled to the Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model (DEHM), a three-dimensional, off-line CTM with full photochemistry: a variant on the ensemble Kalman filter and the three-dimensional variational scheme. The aim of this paper is to describe the two schemes and present an initial assessment of their impacts on model skill. Retrievals of multiple atmospheric trace gases are assimilated, namely: NO₂ tropospheric column densities, CH₄ total column densities, and partial column concentrations of O₃, CO and CH₄; these data are retrieved from four satellite sensors. Data for each species are assimilated independently of one another, and other species are only adjusted indirectly via the model’s chemistry and dynamics. Assimilation results are compared with measurements from surface monitoring stations and other satellite retrievals, and preliminary validation results are presented.Reference simulations (without assimilation) grossly underestimate surface CO concentrations, and both assimilation schemes eliminate this large and systematic model bias. The assimilation improves the spatial correlation of modelled CO with surface observations, and improves the spatial correlation between forecasts and retrievals for CO, NO₂ and O₃. Results for CH₄ show a loss of skill due to a mismatch in model bias between two assimilated CH₄ data-sets. Finally, we discuss differences in methodology and results between this paper and a recent study on multi-species chemical data assimilation. Joint optimisation of initial conditions and emission rates offers a promising direction for improving modelled boundary-layer concentrations.     

Expression of heat shock protein 70 in a permanent cell line (EPC) exposed to sediment extracts from the North Sea and the Baltic Sea

Heat shock proteins 70 (hsp70) are known to be induced by a great variety of chemical stressors. The effects of different environmental contaminants, which were identified in sediments of the North Sea and the Baltic Sea as main contaminants or as contaminants of special toxicological interest, on the extent of expression of hsp70 in a permanent cell line Epithelioma papulosum cyprini (EPC) were investigated. Concentrations of the single contaminants leading to elevated hsp70 levels were compared to the respective concentrations of these contaminants encountered in the sediment extracts thus allowing an assessment of their contribution to the toxicity of these sediments. Analysis of hsp70 was performed using western blotting techniques with subsequent comparative quantification by densitometry. Eleven of thirteen contaminants have shown a dose-dependent increase in hsp70 levels. An expression of hsp70 was observed in most cases between 0.1 and 10 microg/mL test solution. Some of the investigated stressors led to extremely high hsp70 contents even at low concentrations. However, in most cases contaminant concentrations in sediments were too low to cause an effect. For this reason, effects of the tested sediments are attributed to other contaminants or rather to mixtures of stressors.     

Reconstruction of past climates from stable isotope records of palaeo-precipitation preserved in continental archives

Abstract

The potential of stable isotope ratios (²H/¹H and ¹⁸O/¹⁶0) of water as a modern tool for palaeoclimatic reconstructions on continents is reviewed. Examples of stable isotope records of palaeo-precipitation preserved in various continental archives (polar ice sheets, mid- and low latitude glaciers, lacustrine deposits, groundwater) are presented, and the methodology of their interpretation in terms of climatic changes is briefly discussed. To interpret quantitatively the isotope records preserved in continental archives, the response of the isotopic composition of precipitation to long-term fluctuations of key climatic parameters (temperature, precipitation amount, relative humidity) over the given area should be known. Further, the transfer functions relating the climate-induced changes of the isotopic composition of precipitation to the isotope record preserved in the given archive should be established. Since the isotopic composition of precipitation has been monitored only for the past three decades, alternatives ways of assessing the long-term climatic sensitivity of the isotopic signature of precipitation are being investigated. The isotope composition of precipitation should be viewed not only as a powerful proxy climatic indicator but also as an additional hydrometeorological parameter which should be explored as a diagnostic tool for the modelling of climate-induced changes in the water cycle, both on a regional and a global scale.