Multivariate nonparametric resampling scheme for generation of daily weather variables

A nonparametric resampling technique for generating daily weather variables at a site is presented. The method samples the original data with replacement while smoothing the empirical conditional distribution function. The technique can be thought of as a smoothed conditional Bootstrap and is equivalent to simulation from a kernel density estimate of the multivariate conditional probability density function. This improves on the classical Bootstrap technique by generating values that have not occurred exactly in the original sample and by alleviating the reproduction of fine spurious details in the data. Precipitation is generated from the nonparametric wet/dry spell model as described in Lall et al. [1995]. A vector of other variables (solar radiation, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, average dew point temperature, and average wind speed) is then simulated by conditioning on the vector of these variables on the preceding day and the precipitation amount on the day of interest. An application of the resampling scheme with 30 years of daily weather data at Salt Lake City, Utah, USA, is provided.     

Qualitätsanforderungen an Oberflächengewässer: Zielvorgaben,Qualitätsziele und chemische Gewässergüteklassifizierung

Quality Requirements for Fresh Waters: Water Quality Targets, Water Quality Objectives, and Chemical Water Quality Classification In the Federal Republic of Germany, water quality requirements for the protection of inland surface waters against hazardous substances are formulated on the basis of a quality targets derivation concept developed jointly by the Federal Government and the Federal States. The quality requirements were termed “water quality targets” in order to make it clear that the values derived are orientational values rather than legally binding limit values. The international comparison of quality requirements for surface waters shows that, on the whole, the national quality targets ensure a high level of protection. According to present scientific knowledge, impairments of uses, such as supply of drinking water, or risks to aquatic communities need not to be expected if the quality targets are complied with. A comparison of water quality data with the water quality targets makes it possible, on the one hand, to identify those substances whose inputs must be further reduced; on the other hand, it also shows that, for a number of substances, there is no need at present for concern over their adversely water quality. A further differentiation of the aquatic hazard potential of pollutants allows a water quality classification system to be developed on the basis of the quality targets derivation concept. The basic elements of this water quality classification system are presented, and its application is explained by way of examples.     

Simulation of oasis breeze circulation in the arid region of the Northwestern China

In this paper, the process of oasis-desert circulation (ODC) is simulated by MM5V3.5 model through designing an ideal oasis-desert scheme and assuming that initial atmosphere is at rest (V = 0). The findings showed that the key of forming special oasis boundary structure is the difference of energy and water between oasis and desert. The evaporation of oasis surface consumes heat energy, and the low temperature of oasis causes an oasis breeze circulation (OBC), which drives an ODC with a downdraft over the oasis and an updraft over the desert. Later, the cold, dry and stable boundary over oasis is gradually formed, on the contrary,the atmospheric boundary over desert on the edge of oasis is hot, humid and unstable and its height is about 600 hPa. The updraft over the desert forms a wet ring that acts as a vertical wall weakening the low-level moisture exchange between the oasis and desert. The downdraft of OBC increases the atmospheric stability that reduces the oasis evaporation. The low-level outflow from the oasis (into the desert) prevents the dry, hot air flowing from the desert into the oasis.Thus an oasis self-preservation mechanism may be formed due to OBC. The horizontal area influenced by oasis is twice as oasis area and the vertical range is four times as oasis. The ODC is strong in the daytime and reaches the strongest at 17:00, and the influenced area is the largest at 20:00.     

The Influence of Geodynamic Factors on the Postsedimentary Lithogenesis of Jurassic Terrigenous Complexes of the Caucasus (Southern Dagestan)

The influence of geodynamic factors on the postsedimentary lithogenesis of terrigenous sequences during the replacement of the passive continental-margin regime to the active regime is considered with the Toarcian–Aalenian complexes of southern Dagestan as an example. It has been established that clayey rocks were lithified under conditions of subsidence lithogenesis, whereas the orogenic catagenesis of sandy rocks was related to stress initiated by the initial (amagmatic) subduction phase. The Kübler index has been used to reveal the postsedimentary zonality that is consistent with the intensity of folding and cleavage. The metagenesis zone fits the cleavage zone. The Rb–Sr and K–Ar datings of clayey rocks from the metagenesis zone yielded 180–190 Ma that can be interpreted as the timing of the maximal manifestation of postsedimentary lithogenesis.     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Simulation of Orissa Super Cyclone (1999) using PSU/NCAR Mesoscale Model

In this study a non-hydrostatic version of Penn State University (PSU) -- NationalCenter for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) mesoscale model is used to simulate thesuper cyclonic storm that crossed Orissa coast on 29 October 1999. The model isintegrated up to 123 h for producing 5-day forecast of the storm. Several importantfields including sea level pressure, horizontal wind and rainfall are compared with theverification analysis/observation to examine the performance of the model. The modelsimulated track of the cyclone is compared with the best-fit track obtained from IndiaMeteorological Department (IMD) and the track obtained from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis. The model is found to perform reasonably well in simulating the track and in particular, the intensity of the storm.     

Passive Seismic Experiment Mosaic - A Pilot Study of Mantle Lithosphere Anisotropy of the Bohemian Massif

We present results of an array study of seismic anisotropy beneath the Bohemian Massif (BM) showing distinct lateral and directional variations of the fast shear-wave polarization and split-delay time consistent with variations in the P-residual spheres, in which directional means of relative residuals are subtracted. Our analysis of the S- and P-wave anisotropy suggests that the mantle lithosphere of the BM consists of at least three large domains with different orientation of the large-scale fabric separated by sutures cutting most likely the whole lithosphere. Boundaries of the units are characterised by a null or small shear-wave splitting, as well as by smaller values in the P-residual spheres. We present self-consistent 3D anisotropic models of the lithosphere domains of the BM resulting from joint inversion of anisotropic parameters searching for a 3D orientation of mantle fabric. While in the Saxothuringian and Sudetes parts of the BM the (a, c) foliations dip prevailingly to the N-NW, they dip to the S and SW in the southern and eastern parts of the Moldanubian.     

Structure of Palaeogene sediments in east Ellesmere Island: Constraints on Eurekan tectonic evolution and implications for the Nares Strait problem

The “Nares Strait problem” represents a debate about the existence and magnitude of left-lateral movements along the proposed Wegener Fault within this seaway. Study of Palaeogene Eurekan tectonics at its shorelines could shed light on the kinematics of this fault. Palaeogene (Late Paleocene to Early Eocene) sediments are exposed at the northeastern coast of Ellesmere Island in the Judge Daly Promontory. They are preserved as elongate SW–NE striking fault-bounded basins cutting folded Early Paleozoic strata. The structures of the Palaeogene exposures are characterized by broad open synclines cut and displaced by steeply dipping strike-slip faults. Their fold axes strike NE–SW at an acute angle to the border faults indicating left-lateral transpression. Weak deformation in the interior of the outliers contrasts with intense shearing and fracturing adjacent to border faults. The degree of deformation of the Palaeogene strata varies markedly between the northwestern and southeastern border faults with the first being more intense. Structural geometry, orientation of subordinate folds and faults, the kinematics of faults, and fault-slip data suggest a multiple stage structural evolution during the Palaeogene Eurekan deformation: (1) The fault pattern on Judge Daly Promontory is result of left-lateral strike-slip faulting starting in Mid to Late Paleocene times. The Palaeogene Judge Daly basin formed in transtensional segments by pull-apart mechanism. Transpression during progressive strike-slip shearing gave rise to open folding of the Palaeogene deposits. (2) The faults were reactivated during SE-directed thrust tectonics in Mid Eocene times (chron 21). A strike-slip component during thrusting on the reactivated faults depends on the steepness of the fault segments and on their obliquity to the regional stress axes.Strike-slip displacement was partitioned to a number of sub-parallel faults on-shore and off-shore. Hence, large-scale lateral movements in the sum of 80–100 km or more could have been accommodated by a set of faults, each with displacements in the order of 10–30 km. The Wegener Fault as discrete plate boundary in Nares Strait is replaced by a bundle of faults located mainly onshore on the Judge Daly Promontory.     

Potassium induced salinity tolerance in wheat (Triticum aestivum L.)

Water culture experiments were conducted to study the response of ten wheat genotypes to external K application (10 mmol KCI dm^?3) at seedling stage under saline condition (0 and 100 mmol NaCl dm^?3). The data showed that there was an increase in the shoot and root length with the application of external K. The increase was more pronounced under control than under saline conditions. The better performing genotypes under two treatments were Bhitai, NIAB-41, NIAB-I076 and Khirman. The enhanced growth of these genotypes under saline condition might be due to the quick response to external K application, resulting in high K/Na ratio. The results indicated that the genotypes, which have the ability of enhanced K/Na discrimination, might perform better under saline conditions when sufficient potassium is applied in the rooting medium.