Projection of future world water resources under SRES scenarios: an integrated assessment

Abstract

Changes in water resources availability, as affected by global climate warming, together with changes in water withdrawal, could influence the world water resources stress situation. In this study, we investigate how the world water resources situation will likely change under the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) by integrating water withdrawal projections. First, the potential changes in water resources availability are investigated by a multi-model analysis of the ensemble outputs of six general circulation models (GCMs) from organizations worldwide. The analysis suggests that, while climate warming might increase water resources availability to human society, there is a large discrepancy in the size of the water resource depending on the GCM used. Secondly, the changes in water-stressed basins and the number of people living in them are evaluated by two indices at the basin scale. The numbers were projected to increase in the future and possibly to be doubled in the 2050s for the three SRES scenarios A1b, A2 and B1. Finally, the relative impacts of population growth, water use change and climate warming on world water resources are investigated using the global highly water-stressed population as an overall indicator. The results suggest that population and socio-economic development are the major drivers of growing world water resources stress. Even though water availability was projected to increase under different warming scenarios, the reduction of world water stress is very limited. The principal alternative to sustainable governance of world water resources is to improve water-use efficiency globally by effectively reducing net water withdrawal.

Editor Z.W. Kundzewicz; Associate editor D. Gerten     

Intra-oceanic island arc origin for Iratsu eclogites of the Sanbagawa belt,central Shikoku,southwest Japan

New geochemical and Sr–Nd isotopic data for the Iratsu eclogite and surrounding metamorphic rocks of the Sanbagawa belt, Japan, show that, while the protoliths of the metamorphic rocks formed in a variety of tectonic settings, the Iratsu body represents a deeply subducted and accreted island arc. The igneous protoliths of eclogites and garnet amphibolites were probably generated from a mantle source that had components of both a depleted mantle modified by slab-released fluid (as seen in a negative Nb anomaly) and an enriched mantle, similar to that of ocean island basalts (OIB). Fractional crystallization modeling indicates that the protoliths of some garnet clinopyroxenites from the Iratsu body are cumulates from a basaltic magma that crystallized under high O₂ and H₂O fugacities in the middle to lower crust. The source characteristics and crystallization conditions suggest that the protoliths of the Iratsu rocks formed in an oceanic island arc. Quartz eclogites from the marginal zone of the Iratsu body have geochemical signatures similar to turbidites from the Izu–Bonin island arc (as seen in a negative Nb anomaly and a concave REE pattern). The protoliths might be volcaniclastic turbidites that formed in a setting proximal to the oceanic island arc. Geochemical and isotopic signatures of the surrounding mafic schists are similar to normal (N-) and enriched (E-) mid-ocean-ridge basalt (MORB), and distinct from the rocks from the Iratsu body. The protoliths of the mafic schists likely formed in a plume-influenced mid-ocean ridge or back-arc basin. Pelitic schists from the surrounding rocks and pelitic gneisses from the marginal zone of the Iratsu body have evolved, continental geochemical signatures (as seen in a negative ε_Nd(t) value (~?5)), consistent with their origin as continent-derived trench-fill turbidites.     

Ground subsidence in Semarang-Indonesia investigated by ALOS–PALSAR satellite SAR interferometry

The focus of this study is investigation of land subsidence in Semarang city Indonesia with the use of Interferometry Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) of ALOS–PALSAR satellite. We processed 22 ascending SAR images during January 2007 to January 2009 plus two descending SAR images acquired on 6 June 2006 and 17 June 2007. The time series analysis of interferometry was performed by using 12 pairs of interferogram relative to 21 January 2007 and 8 pairs of interferogram relative 24 January 2008. The topographic phase contribution was removed using the 3-arcsec (90 m) Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM), Digital Elevation Model (DEM). We performed precision baseline estimation to vanish the fringes from baseline effect between master and slave data. In order to investigate the contribution of horizontal movement in our analysis, we constructed two interferograms of ascending orbit and descending orbit. The time series results exhibited that the area is subsiding continuously without a significant seasonal effect during January 2007 to January 2009. The land subsidence observed from InSAR data is approximately up to 8 cm/year. Three cross sections on image displacement show the extreme land subsidence occurred especially along the coastal area and lowland area where this area is considered as industrial with high-density settlements, consuming a lot of groundwater, and land is changed from agriculture and cultivation purposes to industrial estates and house. Our result also shows a consistency with historical pattern of subsidence measured by leveling data. The results highlight the potential use of InSAR measurements to provide better constraints for land subsidence in Semarang city Indonesia.     

Importance of intracellular Fe pools on growth of marine diatoms by using unialgal cultures and on the Oyashio region phytoplankton community during spring

We report on the ability for luxury Fe uptake and the potential for growth utilizing intracellular Fe pools for 4 coastal centric diatom isolates and in situ phytoplankton assemblages, mainly composed of diatoms. Iron uptake of the diatom isolates and natural phytoplankton assemblages in the Oyashio region during spring blooms were prevented by adding hydroxamate siderophore desferrioxamine B (DFB). After the addition of DFB, intracellular Fe in the diatom isolates supported 2.4–4.2 cell divisions with 1.2–2.6 Chl a doublings. The intracellular Fe was primarily used for cell generation rather than Chl a production, leading to a reduction in the Chl a cell quota in the Fe-starved cells with time. The metabolic properties of the Fe-starved cells with their cell morphologies were different among species or genera. An on-deck incubation experiment also exhibited 1.9 cell divisions and 0.81 Chl a doublings of phytoplankton after the addition of DFB, also indicating the preference of cell generation over Chl a production. A decrease in the level of cellular Chl a, a main light-harvesting pigment in Fe-starved diatoms, may become a superior survival strategy to protect the cells from high irradiance that can cause photo-oxidative damages through photosynthesis. Such relatively low-Fe with high-light conditions could often occur in surface waters of the Oyashio region from spring to summer.     

Thermobaric structure of the Kokchetav ultrahigh-pressure–high-pressure massif deduced from a north–south transect in the Kulet and Saldat–Kol regions, northern Kazakhstan

Abstract To investigate the regional thermobaric structure of the diamondiferous Kokchetav ultrahigh‐pressure and high‐pressure (UHP–HP) massif and adjacent units, eclogite and other metabasites in the Kulet and Saldat–Kol regions, northern Kazakhstan, were examined. The UHP–HP massif is subdivided into four units, bounded by subhorizontal faults. Unit I is situated at the lowest level of the massif and consists of garnet–amphibolite and acidic gneiss with minor pelitic schist and orthogneiss. Unit II, which structurally overlies Unit I, is composed mainly of pelitic schist and gneiss, and whiteschist locally with abundant eclogite blocks. The primary minerals observed in Kulet and Saldat–Kol eclogites are omphacite, sodic augite, garnet, quartz, rutile and minor barroisite, hornblende, zoisite, clinozoisite and phengite. Rare kyanite occurs as inclusions in garnet. Coesite inclusions occur in garnet porphyroblasts in whiteschist from Kulet, which are closely associated with eclogite masses. Unit III consists of alternating orthogneiss and amphibolite with local eclogite masses. The structurally highest unit, Unit IV, is composed of quartzitic schist with minor pelitic, calcareous, and basic schist intercalations. Mineral assemblages and compositions, and occurrences of polymorphs of SiO₂ (quartz or coesite) in metabasites and associated rocks in the Kulet and Saldat–Kol regions indicate that the metamorphic grades correspond to epidote–amphibolite, through high‐pressure amphibolite and quartz–eclogite, to coesite–eclogite facies conditions. Based on estimations by several geothermobarometers, eclogite from Unit II yielded the highest peak pressure and temperature conditions in the UHP–HP massif, with metamorphic pressure and temperature decreasing towards the upper and lower structural units. The observed thermobaric structure is subhorizontal. The UHP–HP massif is overlain by a weakly metamorphosed unit to the north and is underlain by the low‐pressure Daulet Suite to the south; boundaries are subhorizontal faults. There is a distinct pressure gap across these boundaries. These suggest that the highest grade unit, Unit II, has been selectively extruded from the greatest depths within the UHP–HP unit during the exhumation process, and that all of the UHP–HP unit has been tectonically intruded and juxtaposed into the adjacent lower grade units at shallower depths of about 10 km.     

Mineralogical and Geochemical Constraints on Arsenic Mobility in a Philippine Geothermal Field

Arsenic is usually associated with sulphide minerals formed in the geothermal environment. However, sulphide minerals are prone to dissolution after contact with meteoric water under surface oxidizing conditions. Secondary precipitates that form from the dissolution of the primary sulfides exert a greater influence on arsenic mobility in the geothermal environment. Fe-hydroxides have very good affinity with dissolved arsenate and are stable under most surface oxidizing conditions. Both amorphous silica directly precipitated from geothermal fluids and possibly a kaolinite alteration can host a small significant amount of arsenic. These silicates are also more stable under a wide range of pH and redox conditions.     

Structure, biomass distribution and trophodynamics of the pelagic ecosystem in the Oyashio region, western subarctic Pacific

Biomass distribution and trophodynamics in the oceanic ecosystem in the Oyashio region are presented and analyzed, combining the seasonal data for plankton and micronekton collected at Site H since 1996 with data for nekton and other animals at higher trophic levels from various sources. The total biomass of biological components including bacteria, phytoplankton, microzooplankton, mesozooplankton, micronekton, fishes/squids and marine birds/mammals was 23 g C m⁻², among which the most dominant component was mesozooplankton (34% of the total), followed by phytoplankton (28%), bacteria (15%) and microzooplankton (protozoans) (14%). The remainder (9%) was largely composed of micronekton and fish/squid. Marine mammals/birds are only a small fraction (0.14%) of the total biomass. Large/medium grazing copepods (Neocalaus spp., Eucalanus bungii and Metridia spp.) accounted for 77% of the mesozooplankton biomass. Based on information about diet composition, predators were assigned broadly into mean trophic level 3–4, and carbon flow through the grazing food chain was established based on the estimated annual production/food consumption balance of each trophic level. From the food chain scheme, ecological efficiencies as high as 24% were calculated for the primary/secondary production and 21% for the secondary/tertiary production. Biomass and production of bacteria were estimated as 1/10 of the respective values for phytoplankton at Site H, but the role of the microbial food chain remains unresolved in the present analysis. As keystone species in the oceanic Oyashio region, Neocalanus spp. are suggested as a vital link between primary production and production of pelagic fishes, mammals and birds.     

Boron cycling by subducted lithosphere; insights from diamondiferous tourmaline from the Kokchetav ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic belt

Subduction of lithosphere, involving surficial materials, into the deep mantle is fundamental to the chemical evolution of the Earth. However, the chemical evolution of the lithosphere during subduction to depth remains equivocal. In order to identify materials subjected to geological processes near the surface and at depths in subduction zones, we examined B and Li isotopes behavior in a unique diamondiferous, K-rich tourmaline (K-tourmaline) from the Kokchetav ultrahigh-pressure metamorphic belt. The K-tourmaline, which includes microdiamonds in its core, is enriched in ¹¹B relative to ¹⁰B (δ¹¹B = −1.2 to +7.7) and ⁷Li relative to ⁶Li (δ⁷Li = −1.1 to +3.1). It is suggested that the K-tourmaline crystallized at high-pressure in the diamond stability field from a silicate melt generated at high-pressure and temperature conditions of the Kokchetav peak metamorphism. The heavy isotope signature of this K-tourmaline differs from that of ordinary Na-tourmalines in crustal rocks, enriched in the light B isotope (δ¹¹B = −16.6 to −2.3), which experienced isotope fractionation through metamorphic dehydration reactions. A possible source of the heavy B-isotope signature is serpentine in the subducted lithospheric mantle. Serpentinization of the lithospheric mantle, with enrichment of heavy B-isotope, can be produced by normal faulting at trench-outer rise or trench slope regions, followed by penetration of seawater into the lithospheric mantle. Serpentine breakdown in the lithospheric mantle subducted in subarc regions likely provided fluids with the heavy B-isotope signature, which was acquired during the serpentinization prior to subduction. The fluids could ascend and cause partial melting of the overlying crustal layer, and the resultant silicate melt could inherit the heavy B-isotope signature. The subducting lithospheric mantle is a key repository for modeling the flux of fluids and associated elements acquired at a near the surface into the deep mantle.     

Estimated respiration rate of myctophid fish from the enzyme activity of the electron-transport-system

Whole animal respiration rates (R) of myctophid fishes which migrate up to the surface at night were estimated using enzyme activities of the electron-transport-system (ETS). The fish, currently unsusceptible to laboratory experimentation, were caught at sea and stored frozen at –20°C for 14–17 days prior to enzyme assay. Supplemental tests on two tropical marine fishes (gobies and poma-centrids) showed no measurable loss of ETS activity during storage for up to 36 d at –20°C. The ETS/R ratio for gobies and pomacentrids was 1.61. Respiration rates of myctophid fishes estimated using this ETS/R ratio ranged from 17.7 to 453µl O₂ individual^–1 hr^–1 for specimens weighing 26–1101 mg wet weight atin situ temperature of 24–27°C. The relationship between the respiration rate standardized to a temperature of 20°C (R:µl O₂ individual^–1hr^–1) and wet weight (WW: mg) of myctophid fishes was expressed asR=0.790 WW^0.84 (r=0.964,n=27). This relationship does not differ appreciably from the respiration rates of other marine fishes calculated from Winberg's equation.     

The Optical Characteristics of the Water in the Three Oceans Part—IV

An attempt to the approximate figures of seasonal distribution of solar energy reached to and penetrated in the water of the oceans, as a preliminary step to the estimation of primary production in the oceans from the optical point, was performed in the Indian Ocean, North Pacific Ocean and Antarctic Ocean on the same lines in the part III. In consequence, the total amount of solar energy for the year in each depth showed marked differences in each zone of the oceans as illustrated in Fig. 5. By way of example, it could be said that underwater solar energy already came to 33.4 Kg·cal/cm²·year in 10 m deep in the equator of Indian Ocean and was 54% of that, in the Kuroshio region of the North Pacific Ocean, 44% in the Sub-Antarctic zone, 13% in the Antarctic zone and 6% in the Antarctic Convergence zone, respectively. Besides, on the assumption that a lower limit of the photic zone is marked by the depth here underwater surface solar energy is reduced to 1% or 5g·cal/cm²·day, the ratio of the total photic zone for the year in unit area of sea surface was approximately 100∶80∶60∶25 or 100∶75∶50∶20 in the equator of the Indian Ocean, Kuroshio region, Sub-Antarctic zone, and Antarctic and Antarctic Convergence zones, respectively.