Source parameters for the M<Subscript>w</Subscript> = 6.6, 03 February 2002, Çay Earthquake (Turkey) and aftershocks from GPS,Southwestern Turkey

The 03 February 2002 Çay Earthquake (M_w ～6.7) occurred on the fault segment between Eber and Ak?ehir Lakes followed by a large aftershock (M_w ～5.6) near the western end of the fault and two sequential aftershocks. We computed the coseismic surface displacements from static GPS measurements to determine the fault geometry parameters and uniform slip components. The coseismic displacements were obtained through combining the regional pre-earthquake and post-earthquake GPS data. Fault geometry and slips were acquired through the inversion of GPS data modeling the events as elastic dislocations in a half-space and assuming all four events took place on the same fault plane. Results suggest that one-segment fault of ～33 km length and dipping ～43° northward suffices to model the dislocation, assuming uniform slip distribution with 0.51 m dip slip, 0.26 m left-lateral slip extending to a depth down to ～11.5 km which is consistent with seismological evidence. The results also verify the normal faulting in the eastern flank of Isparta Angle which has long been assumed as a thrusting structure. While the available data cannot identify the four individual events on the same day, an attempted distributed slip model differentiates dip slip and left-lateral slips near the hypocenter with maximum values of ～1 and 0.6 m, respectively.     

Shift-share Analysis on International Tourism Competitiveness - A Case of Jiangsu Province

Shift-share analysis has been confirmed a useful approach in the study of regional economics and many kinds of extended shift-share models have been advanced and put into practice in economic studies, but few have hitherto been introduced and applied to the tourism research in China. Moreover understanding the spatially competitive relationship is of paramount importance for marketers, developers, and planners involved in tourism strategy development. Based on international tourism receipts from 1995 to 2004, this study aims at probing into the spatial competitiveness of interna- tional tourism in Jiangsu Province in comparison with its neighbors by applying a spatially extended shift-share model and a modified dynamic shift-share model. The empirical results illustrate that exceptional years may exist in the ap- plication of dynamic shift-share models. To solve this issue, modifications to dynamic shift-share model are put forward. The analytical results are not only presented but also explained by the comparison of background conditions of tourism development between Jiangsu and its key competitors. The conclusions can be drawn that the growth of international tourism receipts in Jiangsu mainly attributes to the national component and the competitive component and Zhejiang is the most important rival to Jiangsu during the period of 1995-2004. In order to upgrade the tourism competitiveness, it is indispensable for Jiangsu to take proper positioning, promoting and marketing strategies and to cooperate and integrate with its main rivals.     

The Natural Hazards Theme of the International Year of Planet Earth

The United Nations has declared 2008 to be the International Year of Planet Earth. It is being organised under the auspices of the International Union of Geological Sciences and UNESCO. Planning for the International Year of Planet Earth has consisted of establishing 10 major science themes including Hazards. The Hazards Theme is centred around the following key questions: (1) How have humans altered the geosphere, the biosphere and the landscape, thereby creating long-term changes detrimental to life and the environment and triggering certain hazards, while increasing societal vulnerability to geophysical (geological and hydrometeorological) hazards? (2) What technologies and methodologies are required to assess the vulnerability of people and places to hazards and how might these be used at a variety of spatial scales? (3) How do geophysical hazards compare relative to each other regarding current capabilities for monitoring, prediction and mitigation and what can be done in the short-term to improve these capabilities (4) What barriers exist to the utilisation of risk and vulnerability information by governments (and other entities) for risk and vulnerability reduction policies and planning (including mitigation) from each of the geophysical hazards? Following the 26 December 2004 Indian Ocean Tsunami and the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction held in Kobe, Japan in January 2005, the International Council for Science (ICSU) decided to establish a major research programme and initiative on Natural and Human Induced Environmental Hazards and Disasters that will co-operate with the Hazards theme of the International Year and continue through to 2011.     

First-order regional seismotectonic model for South Africa

A first-order seismotectonic model was created for South Africa. This was done using four logical steps: geoscientific data collection, characterisation, assimilation and zonation. Through the definition of subunits of concentrations of earthquake foci and large neotectonic and structural domains, seismotectonic structures, systems and domains were created. Relatively larger controls of seismicity exist between the Great Escarpment and the coast. In the south, this region is characterised by large aeromagnetic anomalies and large EW trending faults. In the west, it is characterised by the NW–SE trending Wegener stress anomaly, radial-trending dykes and earthquake clusters. In the east, it is characterised by a large neotectonic domain where several large historical earthquakes occurred. In the centre of South Africa, several clusters of earthquake activity are found, often related to mining activity. Further north, seismicity is related to both mining activity and neotectonic deformation. This work contributes to the development of a seismotectonic model for South Africa by (1) bringing together, digitally, several data sets in a common GIS platform (geology, geophysics, stress, seismicity, neotectonics, topography, crustal and mantle structure and anisotropy), (2) understanding the significance of data sets for seismotectonic zonation and limitations thereof and (3) obtaining a reasonable regional model for use in seismic hazard assessments.     

Optimal seismic retrofit model for steel moment resisting frames with brittle connections

Based on performance-based seismic engineering, this paper proposes an optimal seismic retrofit model for steel moment resisting frames (SMRFs) to generate a retrofit scheme at minimal cost. To satisfy the acceptance criteria for the Basic Safety Objective (BSO) specified in FEMA 356, the minimum number of upgraded connections and their locations in an SMRF with brittle connections are determined by evolutionary computation. The performance of the proposed optimal retrofitting model is evaluated on the basis of the energy dissipation capacities, peak roof drift ratios, and maximum interstory drift ratios of structures before and after retrofitting. In addition, a retrofit efficiency index, which is defined as the ratio of the increment in seismic performance to the required retrofitting cost, is proposed to examine the efficiencies of the retrofit schemes derived from the model. The optimal seismic retrofit model is applied to the SAC benchmark examples for threestory and nine-story SMRFs with brittle connections. Using the retrofit efficiency index proposed in this study, the optimal retrofit schemes obtained from the model are found to be efficient for both examples in terms of energy dissipation capacity, roof drift ratio, and maximum inter-story drift ratio.     

CATASTROPHIC ECO-ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGE IN THE SONGNEN PLAIN, NORTHEASTERN CHINA SINCE 1900S

Although the Songnen Plain in the northeastern China was developed relatively late in the temperate zone of the world, its eco-environment has changed greatly. This paper analyzes the changes of land cover and the rates and trends ofdesertification during the past 100 years in the Songnen Plain. According to the macroscopic analysis, we find that the eco-environment in the plain has reached to the threshold of catastrophic change since the 1950s. The Thorn Needle Catastrophic Model was used to determine and validate this conclusion. Human activities, including large-scale construction projects, such as huge dams and dikes, and excessive grazing were the primary factors contributing to regional eco-environmental catastrophe. And irrational reclamation of the wilderness also affected the eco-environmental change. The results reveal the complex human-land interactions.     

The first field-based descriptions of pumping-induced saltwater intrusion and upconing

Development of the ideas about the equilibrium between freshwater and saline water has received considerable attention in the literature, but little has been written so far about the earliest scientific works about well salinization. Based on a review of the literature from the second half of the 19th century and the early 20th century, this historical note explores how insights into groundwater abstraction and saltwater intrusion developed, and examples of the earliest field studies are provided. Fundamental research was driven by the need for increasing water supply, but the progress of science did not lead to sustainable management practices everywhere. Research outcomes were shared between scientists of different countries, marking the beginning of coastal hydrogeology as a scientific specialization in the first decade of the 20th century.     

Influence of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the winter climate of East China

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation （AMO）, the multidecadal variation of North Atlantic sea surface temperature （SST）, exhibits an oscillation with a period of 65-80 years and an amplitude of 0.4℃. Observational composite analyses reveal that the warm phase AMO is linked to warmer winters in East China, with enhanced precipitation in the north of this region and reduced precipitation in the south, on multidecadal time scales. The pattern is reversed during the cold phase AMO. Whether the AMO acts as a forcing of the multidecadal winter climate of East China is explored by investigating the atmospheric response to warm AMO SST anomalies in a large ensemble of atmospheric general circulation model （AGCM） experiments. The results from three AGCMs are consistent and suggest that the AMO warmth favors warmer winters in East China. This influence is realized through inducing negative surface air pressure anomalies in the hemispheric-wide domain extending from the midlatitude North Atlantic to midlatitude Eurasia. These negative surface anomalies favor the weakening of the Mongolian Cold High, and thus induce a weaker East Asian Winter Monsoon.     

The Impact of Hurricane Katrina on the Coastal Vegetation of the Weeks Bay Reserve,Alabama from NDVI Data

Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data were used to investigate vegetation changes after Hurricane Katrina (2005) for the Weeks Bay Reserve and surrounding area of coastal AL. Landsat 5 satellite images were acquired before landfall (March 24, 2005), after landfall (September 16, 2005), and 8 months after landfall (April 28, 2006). The March 2005 to September 2005 image comparison showed that average NDVI values decreased by 49% after landfall. Continuing into the next year, average NDVI values were −44% lower in April 2006 than they were in March 2005. Among habitat types, the estuarine emergent wetland experienced the largest average NDVI value decrease (−64%). The estuarine emergent wetland NDVI values continued to decrease by −27% from September 2005 to April 2006, whereas other habitats increased in NDVI. This continued suppression of NDVI values was attributed to increased salinity from the storm surge and to regional drought conditions that occurred after landfall. These results provide insight into the sensitivity of coastal vegetation from the interactions of both tropical cyclones and long-term environmental conditions.