Quantifying uncertainty in remotely sensed land cover maps

Remotely sensed land cover maps are increasingly used as inputs into environmental simulation models whose outputs inform decisions and policy-making. Risks associated with these decisions are dependent on model output uncertainty, which is in turn affected by the uncertainty of land cover inputs. This article presents a method of quantifying the uncertainty that results from potential mis-classification in remotely sensed land cover maps. In addition to quantifying uncertainty in the classification of individual pixels in the map, we also address the important case where land cover maps have been upscaled to a coarser grid to suit the users’ needs and are reported as proportions of land cover type. The approach is Bayesian and incorporates several layers of modelling but is straightforward to implement. First, we incorporate data in the confusion matrix derived from an independent field survey, and discuss the appropriate way to model such data. Second, we account for spatial correlation in the true land cover map, using the remotely sensed map as a prior. Third, spatial correlation in the mis-classification characteristics is induced by modelling their variance. The result is that we are able to simulate posterior means and variances for individual sites and the entire map using a simple Monte Carlo algorithm. The method is applied to the Land Cover Map 2000 for the region of England and Wales, a map used as an input into a current dynamic carbon flux model.     

Spatial and temporal dynamics of bacterial contamination in South France coastal rivers: focus on in‐stream processes during low flows and floods

Faecal indicator bacteria (thermotolerant coliform and faecal streptococci) were enumerated in a Mediterranean coastal river to evaluate bacterial contamination levels in relation to hydrological conditions, to estimate delivery of bacterial loads to transitional and coastal waters (Thau lagoon) and to identify bacterial sources of pollution and their contribution to the bacterial flow. Results showed that (1) in low flow conditions, mean bacterial concentrations were higher than EU guidelines for bathing waters; (2) floods had higher concentrations of indicator bacteria than low flows; (3) low flow conditions represented a negligible proportion of bacterial loads compared with high flow and flood periods; (4) during medium and low flow conditions, bacteria were stored in riverbed fine sediments forming in‐stream stores that may be flushed during floods; (5) the first flush effect was highlighted during an early autumn flood as was the role of in‐stream stores during the course of the flood; and (6) point sources that continuously feed the river are contributing to the pool of bacteria accumulated in the riverbed sediment. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Wave interaction with cylindrical porous piles

The interaction of waves with arrays of porous circular cylinders is studied theoretically and, under the assumption of potential flow and linear wave theory, an analytical solution is derived. The solution is valid for either submerged or emerged structures. The extension to the cases of unidirectional and multidirectional waves is obtained by means of a transfer function. For specific conditions the model gives the same solution as those previously presented by other authors. Numerical results are presented which exemplify diverse wave and mechanical parameters on the wave transformation due to the presence of a system of circular cylinders.     

Combined hillslope diffusion and sediment transport simulation applied to landscape dynamics modelling

We present a new numerical approach for simulating geomorphic and stratigraphic processes that combines open‐channel flow with non‐uniform sediment transport law and semi‐empirical diffusive mass wasting. It is designed to facilitate modelling of surface processes across multiple space‐ and time‐scales, and under a variety of environmental and tectonic conditions. The physics of open‐channel flow is primarily based on an adapted Lagrangian formulation of shallow‐water equations. The interaction between flow and surface geology is performed by a non‐uniform total‐load sediment transport law. Additional hillslope processes are simulated using a semi‐empirical method based on a diffusion approach. In the implementation, the resolution of flow dynamics is made on a triangulated grid automatically mapped and adaptively remeshed over a regular orthogonal stratigraphic mesh. These new methods reduce computational time while preserving stability and accuracy of the physical solutions. In order to illustrate the potential of this method for landscape and sedimentary system modelling, we present a set of three generic experiments focusing on assessing the influence of contrasting erodibilities on the evolution of an active bedrock landscape. The modelled ridges morphometrics satisfy established relationships for drainage network geometry and slope distribution, and provide quantitative information on the relative impact of hillslope and channel processes, sediment discharge and alluviation. Our results suggest that contrasting erodibility can stimulate autogenic changes in erosion rate and influence the landscape morphology and preservation. This approach offers new opportunities to investigate joint landscape and sedimentary systems response to external perturbations. The possibility to define and track a large number of materials makes the implementation highly suited to model source‐to‐sink problems where material dispersion is the key question that needs to be addressed, such as natural resources exploration and basin analysis. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Hurricane flood risk assessment for the Yucatan and Campeche State coastal area

Natural Hazards - In this study, the first ever Sea, Lake, Overland Surges from Hurricanes (SLOSH) grid was built for the Yucatan Peninsula. The SLOSH model was used to simulate storm surges in the...     

The Final Stage of Silicic Island Arc Magmatism in the Northern Urals

Doklady Earth Sciences - The date of cessation of calc-alkaline volcanic complex accumulation within the Devonian (Frasnian) island arc in the Northern Urals was determined for the first time. It...