On the automatic parameter calibration of a hypoplastic soil model

Acta Geotechnica - This paper presents an approach for the automatic parameter calibration (AC) of a hypoplastic constitutive soil model. The calibration software developed in this work simplifies...     

Determination of flow exits in the Soultz borehole GPK2 by using the brine displacement method

The article presents a method to derive synthetic flow logs from low rate injection tests in wells, which are otherwise not accessible for logging. The tests were carried out in the 5 km deep geothermal well GPK2 in the Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project of Soultz-sous-Forêts (France) and were aimed at characterizing the status of the well before chemical treatments. The method consists of injecting water at constant flow rates into the well initially filled with brine. The wellhead pressure record of this test is transformed into log of the flow velocity versus depth by a technique described in the paper. Applying this method to borehole GPK2, three outlets could be detected and quantified within the cased and uncased section of this borehole. The outlet in the cased section at 3860 m absorbed 15% of the total flow. This depth corresponds to a known casing restriction, which makes the borehole inaccessible for logging operations. The two other outlets are at the casing shoe at 4420 m (15%) and at 4670 m (70%).     

A state-dependent hyperelastic-plastic constitutive model considering shear-induced particle breakage in granular soils

Acta Geotechnica - An elastic–plastic constitutive model considering particle breakage for simulation of crushable granular soils behavior is proposed. In the model, elastic strain rates are...     

Improved estimates of mean sea level changes in the German Bight over the last 166 years

In this paper, mean sea level changes in the German Bight, the south-eastern part of the North Sea, are analysed. Records from 13 tide gauges covering the entire German North Sea coastline and the period from 1843 to 2008 have been used to derive high quality relative mean sea level time series. Changes in mean sea level are assessed using non-linear smoothing techniques and linear trend estimations for different time spans. Time series from individual tide gauges are analysed and then ‘virtual station’ time series are constructed (by combining the individual records) which are representative of the German Bight and the southern and eastern regions of the Bight. An accelerated sea level rise is detected for a period at the end of the nineteenth century and for another one covering the last decades. The results show that there are regional differences in sea level changes along the coastline. Higher rates of relative sea level rise are detected for the eastern part of the German Bight in comparison to the southern part. This is most likely due to different rates of vertical land movement. In addition, different temporal behaviour of sea level change is found in the German Bight compared to wider regional and global changes, highlighting the urgent need to derive reliable regional sea level projections for coastal planning strategies.     

A probabilistic approach for the classification of earthquakes as ��triggered�� or ��not triggered��

The occurrence time of earthquakes can be anticipated or delayed by external phenomena that induce strain energy changes on the faults. ??Anticipated?? earthquakes are generally called ??triggered??; however, it can be controversial to label a specific earthquake as such, mostly because of the stochastic nature of earthquake occurrence and of the large uncertainties usually associated to stress modelling. Here we introduce a combined statistical and physical approach to quantify the probability that a given earthquake was triggered by a given stress-inducing phenomenon. As an example, we consider an earthquake that was likely triggered by a natural event: the M?=?6.2 13 Jan 1976 Kópasker earthquake on the Grímsey lineament (Tj?rnes Fracture Zone, Iceland), which occurred about 3?weeks after a large dike injection in the nearby Krafla fissure swarm. By using Coulomb stress calculations and the rate-and-state earthquake nucleation theory, we calculate the likelihood of the earthquake in a scenario that contains only the tectonic background and excludes the dike and in a scenario that includes the dike but excludes the background. Applying the Bayes?? theorem, we obtain that the probability that the earthquake was indeed triggered by the dike, rather than purely due to the accumulation of tectonic strain, is about 60 to 90?%. This methodology allows us to assign quantitative probabilities to different scenarios and can help in classifying earthquakes as triggered or not triggered by natural or human-induced changes of stress in the crust.     

Discrimination of induced seismicity by full moment tensor inversion and decomposition

Human activities, including operations related to mining and reservoir exploitation, may induce seismicity and pose a risk for population and infrastructures. While different observations are commonly used to assess the origin of earthquakes, there is a lack of rules and methods for the discrimination between natural and induced seismicity. The inversion and decomposition of the full moment tensor and the observation of relevant deviation from a pure double couple (DC) model may be an indicator for induced seismicity. We establish here a common procedure to analyse a set of natural and induced events of similar magnitude, which occurred in Germany and neighbouring regions. The procedure is based on an inversion method and on a consistent velocity model and recording network. Induced seismicity is recorded during different mining and/or reservoir exploitations. Moment tensors are inverted using a multi-step inversion approach. This method, which was successfully applied in previous studies at regional and teleseismic distances, is further developed here to account for full moment tensor analysis. We first find a best DC solution and then perform a full moment tensor inversion, fitting full waveforms amplitude spectra at regional distances. The moment tensor solution is decomposed into DC, compensated linear vector dipole and isotropic terms. The discrimination problem is then investigated through the evaluation of distributions of non-DC source components for natural and induced data sets. Results illustrate the potential of the inversion and discrimination approach. Additional detailed analyses are carried out for the two most significant induced earthquakes, and rupture models are compared with the full moment tensor solutions.     

Discharge and transport processes along the German Baltic Sea Coast

The western Baltic Sea infront of the German coast is a highly variable dynamical system, dominated by a complex and small-scale morphometry, the water exchange between the Baltic and North Seas, and driven by local wind. Neither data collection, nor satellite images or model simulations alone were able to explain the observed spatial patterns and transport processes. Therefore, all these methods were combined to explain the dynamical features and to systematise them according to the typical local wind pattern and time series. The aim was to develop an instrument for regional authorities which supports the interpretation of coastal water monitoring data and forms a basis for an improved monitoring strategy. Satellite data of sea surface temperature and ocean colour from the sensors NOAA-AVHRR and SeaWiFS were applied for synoptic investigations in the entire region and Landsat-7-ETM+ for regional studies. Model simulations were performed for the western Baltic using a 3D model MOM-3 and for the Szczecin Lagoon using 2D model FEMFLOW. For the first time, regional particularities in the coastal dynamical features and processes are derived for the main wind directions and for transitions between dominant wind situations west and east as derived from wind statistics. The simulated transport of particles released from different coastal and open sea sources indicate the affected areas during changing forcing conditions. The results support the interpretation of acquired coastal monitoring data as well as the assessment and optimisation of the monitoring programme.     

Decision bias in marine spatial planning of offshore wind farms: Problems of singular versus cumulative assessments of economic impacts on fisheries

The current approval procedure for wind farm proposals in the German EEZ only considers site specific conflict analysis between the wind farm and fisheries. Due to the relatively small spatial coverage of the sites potential opportunity losses to the fisheries are always considered as low or negligible. Cumulative effects on fisheries that will occur once all proposed wind farms are in place are not yet considered adequately. However, those cumulative effects will be quite substantial because, in particular, opportunities to catch such valuable species as flatfish will be considerably reduced.     

Indications for pedogenic formation of perylene in a terrestrial soil profile: Depth distribution and first results from stable carbon isotope ratios

Concentrations and isotope compositions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in natural soils of Southern Germany. In selected profiles perylene concentrations increased with soil depth when compared to the other PAH compounds present. However, its low solubility made vertical transport by seepage water unlikely. Therefore two mechanisms are discussed that could have caused the unusual distribution of perylene in these soils:

(a) Atmospheric deposition of combustion-derived (i.e. pyrogenic) perylene in the top-soil and

(b) in situ generation in the sub-soil of these specific terrestrial environments. This could have been caused by microbial activities or other catalytic processes yet unknown.

In order to distinguish between pyrogenic and natural generation compound-specific ¹³C/¹²C ratios (δ¹³C) were compared between perylene and other PAHs in samples from the top-soil and sub-soil. Despite successful clean-up of the extracts, low perylene concentrations and peak overlaps with benzo(e)pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene prevented determination of a unique δ¹³C value for perylene in the upper horizon. However, the δ¹³C value of perylene in the sub-soil was 5.7 permille more negative than other equal-mass PAHs (with m/z of 252) in the top-soil, which rather supports in situ generation of perylene in the sub-soil.