Discrimination of induced seismicity by full moment tensor inversion and decomposition

Human activities, including operations related to mining and reservoir exploitation, may induce seismicity and pose a risk for population and infrastructures. While different observations are commonly used to assess the origin of earthquakes, there is a lack of rules and methods for the discrimination between natural and induced seismicity. The inversion and decomposition of the full moment tensor and the observation of relevant deviation from a pure double couple (DC) model may be an indicator for induced seismicity. We establish here a common procedure to analyse a set of natural and induced events of similar magnitude, which occurred in Germany and neighbouring regions. The procedure is based on an inversion method and on a consistent velocity model and recording network. Induced seismicity is recorded during different mining and/or reservoir exploitations. Moment tensors are inverted using a multi-step inversion approach. This method, which was successfully applied in previous studies at regional and teleseismic distances, is further developed here to account for full moment tensor analysis. We first find a best DC solution and then perform a full moment tensor inversion, fitting full waveforms amplitude spectra at regional distances. The moment tensor solution is decomposed into DC, compensated linear vector dipole and isotropic terms. The discrimination problem is then investigated through the evaluation of distributions of non-DC source components for natural and induced data sets. Results illustrate the potential of the inversion and discrimination approach. Additional detailed analyses are carried out for the two most significant induced earthquakes, and rupture models are compared with the full moment tensor solutions.     

Camouflaged Galactic cosmic microwave background polarization foregrounds: total and polarized contributions of the kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich effect

We consider the role of the Galactic kinetic Sunyaev–Zeldovich (SZ) effect as a cosmic microwave background (CMB) polarization foreground. While the Galactic thermal SZ effect has previously been studied and discarded as a potential CMB foreground, we find that the kinetic SZ effect is dominant in the Galactic case. We analyse the detectability of the kinetic SZ effect by means of an optimally matched filter technique applied to a simulation of an ideal observation. We obtain no detection, getting a signal-to-noise ratio of 0.1, thereby demonstrating that the kinetic SZ effect can also safely be ignored as a CMB foreground. However, we provide maps of the expected signal for inclusion in future high-precision data processing. Furthermore, we rule out the significant contamination of the polarized CMB signal by second scattering of Galactic kinetic SZ photons, since we show that the scattering of the CMB quadrupole photons by Galactic electrons is a stronger effect than the SZ second scattering, and has already been shown to produce no significant polarized contamination.     

Determination of flow exits in the Soultz borehole GPK2 by using the brine displacement method

The article presents a method to derive synthetic flow logs from low rate injection tests in wells, which are otherwise not accessible for logging. The tests were carried out in the 5 km deep geothermal well GPK2 in the Enhanced Geothermal System (EGS) project of Soultz-sous-Forêts (France) and were aimed at characterizing the status of the well before chemical treatments. The method consists of injecting water at constant flow rates into the well initially filled with brine. The wellhead pressure record of this test is transformed into log of the flow velocity versus depth by a technique described in the paper. Applying this method to borehole GPK2, three outlets could be detected and quantified within the cased and uncased section of this borehole. The outlet in the cased section at 3860 m absorbed 15% of the total flow. This depth corresponds to a known casing restriction, which makes the borehole inaccessible for logging operations. The two other outlets are at the casing shoe at 4420 m (15%) and at 4670 m (70%).     

Indications for pedogenic formation of perylene in a terrestrial soil profile: Depth distribution and first results from stable carbon isotope ratios

Concentrations and isotope compositions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) were determined in natural soils of Southern Germany. In selected profiles perylene concentrations increased with soil depth when compared to the other PAH compounds present. However, its low solubility made vertical transport by seepage water unlikely. Therefore two mechanisms are discussed that could have caused the unusual distribution of perylene in these soils:

(a) Atmospheric deposition of combustion-derived (i.e. pyrogenic) perylene in the top-soil and

(b) in situ generation in the sub-soil of these specific terrestrial environments. This could have been caused by microbial activities or other catalytic processes yet unknown.

In order to distinguish between pyrogenic and natural generation compound-specific ¹³C/¹²C ratios (δ¹³C) were compared between perylene and other PAHs in samples from the top-soil and sub-soil. Despite successful clean-up of the extracts, low perylene concentrations and peak overlaps with benzo(e)pyrene and benzo(a)pyrene prevented determination of a unique δ¹³C value for perylene in the upper horizon. However, the δ¹³C value of perylene in the sub-soil was 5.7 permille more negative than other equal-mass PAHs (with m/z of 252) in the top-soil, which rather supports in situ generation of perylene in the sub-soil.     

Discharge and transport processes along the German Baltic Sea Coast

The western Baltic Sea infront of the German coast is a highly variable dynamical system, dominated by a complex and small-scale morphometry, the water exchange between the Baltic and North Seas, and driven by local wind. Neither data collection, nor satellite images or model simulations alone were able to explain the observed spatial patterns and transport processes. Therefore, all these methods were combined to explain the dynamical features and to systematise them according to the typical local wind pattern and time series. The aim was to develop an instrument for regional authorities which supports the interpretation of coastal water monitoring data and forms a basis for an improved monitoring strategy. Satellite data of sea surface temperature and ocean colour from the sensors NOAA-AVHRR and SeaWiFS were applied for synoptic investigations in the entire region and Landsat-7-ETM+ for regional studies. Model simulations were performed for the western Baltic using a 3D model MOM-3 and for the Szczecin Lagoon using 2D model FEMFLOW. For the first time, regional particularities in the coastal dynamical features and processes are derived for the main wind directions and for transitions between dominant wind situations west and east as derived from wind statistics. The simulated transport of particles released from different coastal and open sea sources indicate the affected areas during changing forcing conditions. The results support the interpretation of acquired coastal monitoring data as well as the assessment and optimisation of the monitoring programme.     

Isotopic fingerprints on lacustrine organic matter from Laguna Potrok Aike (southern Patagonia, Argentina) reflect environmental changes during the last 16,000 years

A combination of carbon-to-nitrogen ratios (TOC/TN), Rock Eval-analyses, and stable isotope values of bulk nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) and organic carbon (δ¹³C_org) was used to characterize bulk organic matter (OM) of a piston core from the Patagonian maar lake Laguna Potrok Aike (Argentina) for the purpose of palaeoenvironmental reconstruction. Sedimentary data were compared with geochemical signatures of potential OM sources from Laguna Potrok Aike and its catchment area to identify the sources of sedimentary OM. Correlation patterns between isotopic data and TOC/TN ratios allowed differentiation of five distinct phases with different OM composition. Before 8470 calibrated ¹⁴C years before present (cal. yrs BP) and after 7400 cal. yrs BP, isotopic and organo-geochemical fingerprints indicate that the sediments of Laguna Potrok Aike consist predominantly of soil and diatom OM with varying admixtures of cyanobacterial and aquatic macrophyte OM. For a short phase of the early Holocene (ca. 8470–7400 cal. yrs BP), however, extremely high input of soil OM is implied by isotopic fingerprints. Previous seismic and geochronological results indicate a severe lake-level drop of 33 m below present-day shortly before 6590 cal. yrs BP. It is suggested that this lake level drop was accompanied by increased erosion of shore banks and channel incision enhancing soil OM deposition in the lake basin. Thus, isotopic data can be linked to hydrological variations at Laguna Potrok Aike and allow a more precise dating of this extremely low lake level. An isotopic mixing model was used including four different sources (soil, cyanobacteria, diatom and aquatic macrophyte OM) to model OM variations and the model results were compared with quantitative microfossil data.     

Erosion and Flooding—Threats to Coastal Infrastructure in the Arctic: A Case Study from Herschel Island,Yukon Territory,Canada

Arctic coastal infrastructure and cultural and archeological sites are increasingly vulnerable to erosion and flooding due to amplified warming of the Arctic, sea level rise, lengthening of open water periods, and a predicted increase in frequency of major storms. Mitigating these hazards necessitates decision-making tools at an appropriate scale. The objectives of this paper are to provide such a tool by assessing potential erosion and flood hazards at Herschel Island, a UNESCO World Heritage candidate site. This study focused on Simpson Point and the adjacent coastal sections because of their archeological, historical, and cultural significance. Shoreline movement was analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) after digitizing shorelines from 1952, 1970, 2000, and 2011. For purposes of this analysis, the coast was divided in seven coastal reaches (CRs) reflecting different morphologies and/or exposures. Using linear regression rates obtained from these data, projections of shoreline position were made for 20 and 50 years into the future. Flood hazard was assessed using a least cost path analysis based on a high-resolution light detection and ranging (LiDAR) dataset and current Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change sea level estimates. Widespread erosion characterizes the study area. The rate of shoreline movement in different periods of the study ranges from ?5.5 to 2.7 m·a^?1 (mean ?0.6 m·a^?1). Mean coastal retreat decreased from ?0.6 m·a^?1 to ?0.5 m·a^?1, for 1952–1970 and 1970–2000, respectively, and increased to ?1.3 m·a^?1 in the period 2000–2011. Ice-rich coastal sections most exposed to wave attack exhibited the highest rates of coastal retreat. The geohazard map combines shoreline projections and flood hazard analyses to show that most of the spit area has extreme or very high flood hazard potential, and some buildings are vulnerable to coastal erosion. This study demonstrates that transgressive forcing may provide ample sediment for the expansion of depositional landforms, while growing more susceptible to overwash and flooding.     

Cooperative interaction of rich and poor can be catalyzed by intermediate climate targets

International climate negotiations that aim at reducing global greenhouse gas emissions are strongly influenced by a conflict between rich and poor countries and by a lack of consensus about the urgency of emission reduction measures. We have previously in an experimental game characterised the implied challenge of avoiding dangerous climate change as the “collective-risk social dilemma”. Here we introduce heterogeneous wealth and two time horizons into the collective-risk social dilemma game. We show that rich players are willing to substitute for missing contributions by the poor, provided the players collectively face intermediate climate targets that, if not reached, are potentially followed by simulated intermediate costly climate risks. However, despite some increase in the contributions of the rich against the final collective target, the final target is reached less often than the intermediate target. Our results provide experimental evidence that similar, intermediate time horizons between climate risks and climate change mitigation planning are a necessary, though not sufficient, component of successful climate negotiations.     

Imaging a shallow salt diapir using ambient seismic vibrations beneath the densely built-up city area of Hamburg,Northern Germany

Salt diapirs are common features of sedimentary basins. If close to the surface, they can bear a significant hazard due to possible dissolution sinkholes, karst formation and collapse dolines or their influence on ground water chemistry. We investigate the potential of ambient vibration techniques to map the 3-D roof morphology of shallow salt diapirs. Horizontal-to-vertical (H/V) spectral peaks are derived at more than 900 positions above a shallow diapir beneath the city area of Hamburg, Germany, and are used to infer the depth of the first strong impedance contrast. In addition, 15 small-scale array measurements are conducted at different positions in order to compute frequency-dependent phase velocities of Rayleigh waves between 0.5 and 25 Hz. The dispersion curves are inverted together with the H/V peak frequency to obtain shear-wave velocity profiles. Additionally, we compare the morphology derived from H/V and array measurements to borehole lithology and a gravity-based 3-D model of the salt diapir. Both methods give consistent results in agreement with major features indicated by the independent data. An important result is that H/V and array measurements are better suited to identify weathered gypsum caprocks or gypsum floaters, while gravity-derived models better sample the interface between sediments and homogeneous salt. We further investigate qualitatively the influence of the 3-D subsurface topography of the salt diapir on the validity of local 1-D inversion results from ambient vibration dispersion curve inversion.     

Improved estimates of mean sea level changes in the German Bight over the last 166 years

In this paper, mean sea level changes in the German Bight, the south-eastern part of the North Sea, are analysed. Records from 13 tide gauges covering the entire German North Sea coastline and the period from 1843 to 2008 have been used to derive high quality relative mean sea level time series. Changes in mean sea level are assessed using non-linear smoothing techniques and linear trend estimations for different time spans. Time series from individual tide gauges are analysed and then ‘virtual station’ time series are constructed (by combining the individual records) which are representative of the German Bight and the southern and eastern regions of the Bight. An accelerated sea level rise is detected for a period at the end of the nineteenth century and for another one covering the last decades. The results show that there are regional differences in sea level changes along the coastline. Higher rates of relative sea level rise are detected for the eastern part of the German Bight in comparison to the southern part. This is most likely due to different rates of vertical land movement. In addition, different temporal behaviour of sea level change is found in the German Bight compared to wider regional and global changes, highlighting the urgent need to derive reliable regional sea level projections for coastal planning strategies.