La scintillazione delle stelle nella previsione del tempo

Riassunto Richiamate brevemente le conoscenze fondamentali sulla scintillizzazione stellare, si espongono i principi generali di un procedimento inteso a ricavare elementi d'integrazione alle osservazioni sinottiche per la formulazione del presagio meteorico locale, partendo dalla accurata e sistematica misura della scintillazione stessa. Lo studio ha carattere preliminare, contenendo considerazioni generali la cui applicazione dovrà trovare conferma dallo sviluppo delle relative osservazioni.

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Zusammenfassung Nach einem Überblick über die Entwicklung unserer Kenntnissen zur Erklärung des Funkelns der Sterne, gibt der Verf. die allgemeinen Richtlinien einer Methode, welche, stützend auf systematischen Beobachtungen dieser Erscheinung, die synoptischen Verfahren der Wettervorhersage unterstützen und ergänzen kann. Die Schrift gilt als vorläuflge Mitteilung, besonders in Anbetrachtung der Notwendigkeit einer entsprechenden Entwicklung und Verfeinerung der Beobachtungen.

     

1D elastic full‐waveform inversion and uncertainty estimation by means of a hybrid genetic algorithm–Gibbs sampler approach

Stochastic optimization methods, such as genetic algorithms, search for the global minimum of the misfit function within a given parameter range and do not require any calculation of the gradients of the misfit surfaces. More importantly, these methods collect a series of models and associated likelihoods that can be used to estimate the posterior probability distribution. However, because genetic algorithms are not a Markov chain Monte Carlo method, the direct use of the genetic‐algorithm‐sampled models and their associated likelihoods produce a biased estimation of the posterior probability distribution. In contrast, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, such as the Metropolis–Hastings and Gibbs sampler, provide accurate posterior probability distributions but at considerable computational cost. In this paper, we use a hybrid method that combines the speed of a genetic algorithm to find an optimal solution and the accuracy of a Gibbs sampler to obtain a reliable estimation of the posterior probability distributions. First, we test this method on an analytical function and show that the genetic algorithm method cannot recover the true probability distributions and that it tends to underestimate the true uncertainties. Conversely, combining the genetic algorithm optimization with a Gibbs sampler step enables us to recover the true posterior probability distributions. Then, we demonstrate the applicability of this hybrid method by performing one‐dimensional elastic full‐waveform inversions on synthetic and field data. We also discuss how an appropriate genetic algorithm implementation is essential to attenuate the “genetic drift” effect and to maximize the exploration of the model space. In fact, a wide and efficient exploration of the model space is important not only to avoid entrapment in local minima during the genetic algorithm optimization but also to ensure a reliable estimation of the posterior probability distributions in the subsequent Gibbs sampler step.     

A spreadsheet-based technique (Lotus 1-2-3) for separating tropical forest storm hydrographs using Hewlett and Hibbert's slope

The inclined line separation technique of Hewlett and Hibbert has been widely adopted to separate delayed flow from the total stream storm runoff. Presented here is the application of the technique to highly responsive storm hydrographs using a personal computer method based on a Lotus 1-2-3 spreadsheet. Using discharge measurements (in m³ s⁻¹), catchment area (in km²) and time (in Julian days), the separation slope is adjusted on the monitor screen until the precise time at which the end of quickflow as storm runoff gives way to delayed flow may be established. The application of the inclined line method is compared with other separation techniques applied to the same dataset. The annual stream quickflow runoff for the study catchment was calculated by the four different separating lines — (i) best-fit curve, (ii) N-day after peak, (iii) inclined line and (iv) horizontal line — was 250, 312, 368, and 588 mm, amounting to 33, 31, 51 and 78 per cent respectively of the annual total stream runoff. Separation of flow by computer spreadsheet methods may be consistently applied throughout a dataset and therefore have a comparative advantage over more arbitrary techniques. © 1997 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Contamination source detection in water distribution networks using belief propagation

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - We present a Bayesian approach for the Contamination Source Detection problem in water distribution networks. Assuming that contamination is...     

Experimental modelling of flocculation processes-the case of Paraiba do Sul Estuary

The aggregation dynamics of fine sediments was analysed through laboratory tests using Couette and disk flocculators.It was shown that floc sizes tend to increase as concentrations grow both in fresh and salt water,in agreement with the aggregation theory,and that equilibrium diameters are slightly greater in salt environments for flocs developed either under shear stress or by differential sedimentation.Their transport and the aggregation processes were preliminarily studied in the estuary of the Paraiba do Sul River using a particle tracking model and field data.The floc breakup process by shear stress was included in the model.Yield stresses,which were determined by fractal dimensions and differential density,were accounted for.After the calibration of the collision efficiency coefficients,the numerical model was able to predict floc sizes comparable with those measured at the Paraiba do Sul estuary,which,in turn,were similar to those obtained during the laboratory experiments in the Couette flocculator.     

A Comprehensive Method for Fractionating Soil Organic Matter Not Protected and Protected from Decomposition by Physical and Chemical Mechanisms

The objective of this work was to describe a method for isolating meaningful and measurable soil organic matter (SOM) pools that differ in the mechanisms by which they are protected from decomposition. The proposed method is appropriate for soil C stabilization and sequestration studies. Unlike previous fractionation schemes, this procedure allows free SOM located between aggregates (unprotected C pool) and SOM occluded within both macroaggregates and microaggregates (C weakly and strongly protected by physical mechanisms, respectively) to be recovered separately, freed from the soil mineral matrix and the mineral‐associated SOM pool (C pool protected by chemical mechanisms) and thus well suited to advanced chemical characterization by ¹³C‐NMR. Briefly, free SOM is isolated by an initial density separation. Stable macroaggregates are broken up into stable microaggregates and intra‐macroaggregate SOM, which is then separated by density. Finally, intra‐microaggregate SOM is isolated from mineral‐associated SOM by a third density separation after ultrasonic disruption. The SOM dissolved during the fractionation procedure is also recovered. Results obtained on soil samples with contrasting textures suggested that clay content induces a decrease of the proportion of free organic C and an increase of mineral‐associated organic C content. Free SOM is characterized by a marked presence of undecayed organic material and biologically labile substances, such as carbohydrates and proteins. In contrast, SOM occluded within aggregates, especially within microaggregates, represents a more decomposed fraction, relatively enriched in unsubstituted‐aliphatic material, most probably lipid biopolymers.     

Critical literacy and the geography classroom: Including gender and feminist perspectives

Abstract: Teaching secondary school geography students about different perspectives on the way knowledge is produced can be challenging. The forms of critical thinking that are prompted by interrogating the ways in which knowledge are produced equips students with intellectual tools for independent learning; an attribute which is a key feature of successful learners. This article provides an overview of the ways in which gender/feminist perspectives have been generated over time; how the teaching of these perspectives has been included in one New Zealand school, as well as suggesting useful resources.