Are Models Too Simple? Arguments for Increased Parameterization

The idea that models should be as simple as possible is often accepted without question. However, too much simplification and parsimony may degrade a model's utility. Models are often constructed to make predictions; yet, they are commonly parameterized with a focus on calibration, regardless of whether (1) the calibration data can constrain simulated predictions or (2) the number and type of calibration parameters are commensurate with the hydraulic property details on which key predictions may depend. Parameterization estimated through the calibration process is commonly limited by the necessity that the number of calibration parameters be smaller than the number of observations. This limitation largely stems from historical restrictions in calibration and computing capability; we argue here that better methods and computing capabilities are now available and should become more widely used. To make this case, two approaches to model calibration are contrasted: (1) a traditional approach based on a small number of homogeneous parameter zones defined by the modeler a priori and (2) regularized inversion, which includes many more parameters than the traditional approach. We discuss some advantages of regularized inversion, focusing on the increased insight that can be gained from calibration data. We present these issues using reasoning that we believe has a common sense appeal to modelers; knowledge of mathematics is not required to follow our arguments. We present equations in an Appendix, however, to illustrate the fundamental differences between traditional model calibration and a regularized inversion approach.     

Riverine influence determines nearshore heterogeneity of nutrient (C,N, P) content and stoichiometry in the KwaZulu-Natal Bight,South Africa

Riverine influences on nearshore oceanic habitats often have detrimental consequences leading to algal blooms and hypoxia. In oligo- to mesotrophic systems, however, nutrient delivery via rivers may stimulate production and even be a vital source of nutrients, as may nutrient supplements from upwelling. We investigated the nutrient content (C, N, P) and stoichiometry of sediment, and several pelagic, benthopelagic and benthic species in the KwaZulu-Natal (KZN) Bight, a narrow shelf area on the south-east coast of South Africa, bordering the Agulhas Current. Three suggested nutrient sources to the bight are the Thukela River in the central region of the bight, upwelling in the northern part and a semi-permanent eddy (Durban Eddy) in the southern part. Elemental content of the various groups studied showed significantly higher values for most groups at the site near the Thukela River. C:P and N:P were highest in the southern part of the bight, and lowest near the Thukela Mouth or at Richards Bay in the north, indicating the latter were the P-richer sites. Sediment organic matter showed lowest elemental content, as expected, and zooplankton stoichiometry was highest compared to all other biotic groups. Environmental heterogeneity played a greater role in organismal C, N and P content and stoichiometry compared to phylogeny, with the exception of the differences in C:P and N:P of zooplankton. From this bight-wide study, the higher elemental content and lower ratios at the Thukela Mouth site supported previous findings of the importance of coastal nutrient sources to the bight ecosystem. Reductions in river flow for water use in the catchment areas may therefore have negative consequences for the productivity of the entire ecosystem.     

Internal structure and significance of ice‐marginal moraine in the Kebnekaise Mountains,northern Sweden

Despite a long history of glaciological research, the palaeo‐environmental significance of moraine systems in the Kebnekaise Mountains, Sweden, has remained uncertain. These landforms offer the potential to elucidate glacier response prior to the period of direct monitoring and provide an insight into the ice‐marginal processes operating at polythermal valley glaciers. This study set out to test existing interpretations of Scandinavian ice‐marginal moraines, which invoke ice stagnation, pushing, stacking/dumping and push‐deformation as important moraine forming processes. Moraines at Isfallsglaciären were investigated using ground‐penetrating radar to document the internal structural characteristics of the landform assemblage. Radar surveys revealed a range of substrate composition and reflectors, indicating a debris‐ice interface and bounding surfaces within the moraine. The moraine is demonstrated to contain both ice‐rich and debris‐rich zones, reflecting a complex depositional history and a polygenetic origin. As a consequence of glacier overriding, the morphology of these landforms provides a misleading indicator of glacial history. Traditional geochronological methods are unlikely to be effective on this type of landform as the fresh surface may post‐date the formation of the landform following reoccupation of the moraine rampart by the glacier. This research highlights that the interpretation of geochronological data sets from similar moraine systems should be undertaken with caution.     

Soil-stratigraphic techniques in the study of soil and landform evolution across the Southern Alps, New Zealand

The Southern Alps lie along the convergent Pacific-Indian plate boundary. Geomorphically distinct eastern, axial and western regions reflect the east-west gradient in tectonic uplift (1 to 10 mm a⁻¹) and precipitation (600 to 10,000 mm a⁻¹). The eastern region is divided into front-ange and basin-and-range subregions. Soil-sequence studies on terraces established temporal contrasts in pedogenesis within and between eastern and western regions encompassing Entisols, Inceptisols and Spodosols. On Late Pleistocene and early Holocene terraces Dystrochrepts are persistent soils in the eastern region and Aquods in the western region. These soil sequences are used in the interpretation of relative soil age, stratigraphy and erosion history in hill and mountain drainage basins of the eastern and western regions. In the subhumid to humid eastern front-range subregion, simple soil forms occur as catenary sequences, and there is little evidence of erosion following the destruction of forests in the last millenium. Mollisols are dominant in the subhumid, and Dystrochrepts in humid areas, respectively. Soil-debris mantle regoliths date from the early Holocene and are still developing on slopes. The soil pattern on mountain slopes in the humid, eastern basin-and-range subregion is a complex array of simple, eroded, composite and compound soils. This pattern has resulted from erosion following forest destruction within the last millenium. The oldest surface or buried forest soils are Dystrochrepts dating from the Late Pleistocene to early Holocene. Wind erosion of these low-fertility soils contributes to the loessial sediments in which younger soils have formed. In the western region, soil patterns and soil stratigraphy indicate continous instability with a complex pattern of highly leached, shallow Orthents and bedrock outcrops on slopes. The soils are eroded from slopes within 2 ka. These contrasts in soil development and erosion periodicity in the eastern and western regions of the Southern Alps parallel the east-west contrasts in erosion rates of ca. 1–10 mm a⁻¹.     

Turbulent mixing in a stratified estuarine tidal channel: Hikapu Reach,Pelorus Sound,New Zealand

Channel constrictions within an estuary can influence overall estuary-sea exchange of salt or suspended/dissolved material. The exchange is modulated by turbulent mixing through its effect on density stratification. Here we quantify turbulent mixing in Hikapu Reach, an estuarine channel in the Marlborough Sounds, New Zealand. The focus is on a period of relatively low freshwater input but where density stratification still persists throughout the tidal cycle, although the strength of stratification and its vertical structure vary substantially. The density stratification increases through the ebb tide, and decreases through the flood tide. During the spring tides observed here, ebb tidal flow speeds reached 0.7?m?s^?1 and the buoyancy frequency squared was in the range 10^?5 to 10^?3?s^?2. Turbulence parameters were estimated using both shear microstructure and velocimeter-derived inertial dissipation which compared favourably. The rate of dissipation of turbulent kinetic energy reached 1?×?10^?6?m²?s^?3 late in the ebb tide, and estimates of the gradient Richardson number (the ratio of stability to shear) fell as low as 0.1 (i.e. unstable) although the results show that bottom-boundary driven turbulence can dominate for periods. The implication, based on scaling, is that the mixing within the channel does not homogenise the water column within a tidal cycle. Scaling, developed to characterise the tidal advection relative to the channel length, shows how riverine-driven buoyancy fluxes can pass through the tidal channel section and the stratification can remain partially intact.     

Seasonal variations of the clear-sky greenhouse effect: the role of changes in atmospheric temperatures and humidities

We present an analysis of the factors which control the seasonal variations of the clear-sky greenhouse effect, based on satellite observations and radiative transfer simulations. The satellite observations include the radiation budget at the top of the atmosphere from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment and the total column moisture content derived from the Special Sensor Microwave/Imager. The simulations were performed with the SAMSON system described in an earlier paper, using atmospheric temperatures and humidities from operational analyses produced by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts. At low latitudes, the magnitude of the clear-sky greenhouse effect is dominated by the strong thermodynamic link between the total column moisture content of the atmosphere and sea surface temperatures, with minimal seasonal variations. In contrast, at middle to high latitudes there are strong seasonal variations, the clear-sky greenhouse effect being largest in winter and smallest in summer. These variations cannot be explained by the seasonal cycle in the total column moisture content, as this is largest in summer and smallest in winter. The variations are controlled instead by the seasonal changes in atmospheric temperatures. The colder atmosphere in winter enhances the temperature differential between the atmosphere and the sea surface, leading to a larger greenhouse effect despite the lower moisture contents. The magnitude of the clear-sky greenhouse effect is thus controlled by atmospheric humidity at low latitudes, but by atmospheric temperature at middle and high latitudes. These controls are illustrated by results from sensitivity experiments with SAMSON and are interpreted in terms of a simple model.     

Integrating soils and geomorphology in mountains—an example from the Front Range of Colorado

Soil distribution in high mountains reflects the impact of several soil-forming factors. Soil geomorphologists use key pedological properties to estimate ages of Quaternary deposits of various depositional environments, estimate long-term stability and instability of landscapes, and make inferences on past climatic change. Once the influence of the soil-forming factors is known, soils can be used to help interpret some aspects of landscape evolution that otherwise might go undetected.The Front Range of Colorado rises from the plains of the Colorado Piedmont at about 1700 m past a widespread, dissected Tertiary erosion surface between 2300 and 2800 m up to an alpine Continental Divide at 3600 to over 4000 m. Pleistocene valley glaciers reached the western edge of the erosion surface. Parent rocks are broadly uniform (granitic and gneissic). Climate varies from 46 cm mean annual precipitation (MAP) and 11 °C mean annual temperature (MAT) in the plains to 102 cm and −4 °C, respectively, near the range crest. Vegetation follows climate with grassland in the plains, forest in the mountains, and tundra above 3450 m. Soils reflect the bioclimatic transect from plains to divide: A/Bw or Bt/Bk or K (grassland) to A/E/Bw or Bt/C (forest) to A/Bw/C (tundra). Corresponding soil pH values decrease from 8 to less than 5 with increasing elevation. The pedogenic clay minerals dominant in each major vegetation zone are: smectite (grassland), vermiculite (forest), and 1.0–1.8 nm mixed-layer clays (tundra). Within the lower forested zone, the topographic factor (aspect) results in more leached, colder soils, with relatively thin O horizons, well-expressed E horizons and Bt horizons (Alfisols) on N-facing slopes, whereas soils with thicker A horizons, less developed or no E horizons, and Bw or Bt horizons (Mollisols) are more common on S-facing slopes. The topographic factor in the tundra results in soil patterns as a consequence of wind-redistributed snow and the amount of time it lingers on the landscape. An important parent material factor is airborne dust, which results in fine-grained surface horizons and, if infiltrated, contributes to clay accumulation in some Bt horizons. The time factor is evaluated by soil chronosequence studies of Quaternary deposits in tundra, upper forest, and plains grassland. Few soils in the study area are >10,000 years old in the tundra, >100,000 years old in the forest, and >2 million years old in the grassland. Stages of granite weathering vary with distance from the Continental Divide and the best developed is grus near the sedimentary/granitic rock contact just west of the mountain front. Grus takes a minimum of 100,000 years to form.Some of the relations indicated by the soil map patterns are: (1) parts of the erosion surface have been stable for 100,000 years or more; (2) development of grus near the mountain front could be due in part to pre-Pennsylvanian weathering; (3) a few soil properties reflect Quaternary paleoclimate; and (4) a correlation between soil development in the canyons and stream incision rates.