城市破坏性地震应急预案的编制与修订要点探讨

破坏性地震应急预案是城市防震减灾工作的核心内容之一, 是破坏性地震发生后进行应急处置的指导性文件。 根据综合分析国外部分地区的防灾规划中地震应急处置的内容与特点, 研究了目前我国部分城市的破坏性地震应急预案现状和存在问题。 并在此基础上, 探讨了城市破坏性地震应急预案中防御水准的制定、 灾害信息的收集和传递、 辅助决策保障、 应急救灾反应以及对人文和环境的考虑等关键问题及其解决方法, 为城市破坏性地震应急预案的编制或修订提供参考。     

Dating palaeo‐seismic faulting in the Taiwan Mountain Belt

In‐situ ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar laser microprobe dating was carried out on the Hoping pseudotachylite from a mylonite‐fault zone in the metamorphosed basement complex of the active Taiwan Mountain Belt to determine the timing of the responsible earthquake(s). The dating results, distributed from 3.2 to 1.6 Ma with errors ranging from 0.2 to 1.1 Ma, were derived from a combination of two Ar isotopic system end‐members with inverse isochron ages of 1.55 ± 0.05 and 2.87 ± 0.07 Ma, respectively. Petrographical observations reveal fault melt containing ultracataclasites, therefore the older inverse isochron end‐member may be attributed to the relic wall rock Ar isotopic system contained in micro‐breccia. Without significant Ar loss expected, the ~1.6 Ma for the young end‐member defines the exact time of the pseudotachylite formation. Seismic faulting therefore occurred during basement rock exhumation in the Taiwanese hinterland.     

Estimating anisotropic aquifer parameters by artificial neural networks

In recent years, many approaches have been developed using the artificial neural networks (ANN) model incorporated with the Theis analytical solution to estimate the effective hydrological parameters for homogeneous and isotropic porous media, such as the Lin and Chen approach (ANN approach) and the principal component analysis (PCA)‐ANN approach. The above methods assume a full superimposition of the type curve and the observed drawdown and try to use the first time‐drawdown data as a match point to make a fine approximation of the effective parameters. However, using first time‐drawdown data or early time‐drawdown data does not always allow for an accurate estimation of the hydrological parameters, especially for heterogeneous and anisotropic aquifers. Therefore, this article corrects the concept of the superimposed plot by modifying the ANN approach and the PCA‐ANN approach, as well as incorporating the Papadopoulos analytical solution, to estimate the transmissivities and storage coefficient for anisotropic, homogeneous aquifers. The ANN model is trained with 4000 training sets of the well function, and tested with 1000 sets and 300 sets of synthetic time‐drawdown generated from the homogeneous and heterogeneous parameters, respectively. In situ observation data from the time‐drawdown at station Shi‐Chou on the Choushui River alluvial fan, Taiwan, is further adopted to test the applicability and reliability of the proposed methods, as well as provide a basis for comparison with the Straight‐line method and the Type‐curve method. Results suggest that both of the modified methods perform better than the original ones, and using late time‐drawdown to optimize the effective parameters is shown to be better than using early time‐drawdown. Additionally, results indicate that the modified ANN approach is better than the modified PCA‐ANN approach in terms of precision, while the efficiency of the modified PCA‐ANN approach is approximately three times better than that of the modified ANN approach. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of the South–North Water Transfer Project (CTP)'s central route on groundwater table in the Hai River basin,North China

The central route of the South–North Water Transfer Project (CTP) is designed to divert approximately 9.5 billion m³ of water per year from the Han River, a major tributary of the Yangtze River, to the Hai River basin in the north China. The main purpose of this study is to assess the impact of CTP on groundwater table in the Hai River basin. Our study features a large‐scale distributed hydrological model that couples a physically based groundwater module, which is sub‐basin‐based, with a conceptual surface water module, which is grid‐based. There are several grids in each sub‐basin and water exchange among grid that are considered. Our model couples surface water module and groundwater module and calculates human water use at the same time. The simulation results indicate that even with the water supply by CTP, the groundwater table will continue to decline in the Hai River basin. However, the CTP water can evidently reduce the decline rate, helping alleviate groundwater overexploitation in Hai River region. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mapping uncertain geographical attributes: incorporating robustness into choropleth classification design

ABSTRACT

Choropleth mapping provides a simple but effective visual presentation of geographical data. Traditional choropleth mapping methods assume that data to be displayed are certain. This may not be true for many real-world problems. For example, attributes generated based on surveys may contain sampling and non-sampling error, and results generated using statistical inferences often come with a certain level of uncertainty. In recent years, several studies have incorporated uncertain geographical attributes into choropleth mapping with a primary focus on identifying the most homogeneous classes. However, no studies have yet accounted for the possibility that an areal unit might be placed in a wrong class due to data uncertainty. This paper addresses this issue by proposing a robustness measure and incorporating it into the optimal design of choropleth maps. In particular, this study proposes a discretization method to solve the new optimization problem along with a novel theoretical bound to evaluate solution quality. The new approach is applied to map the American Community Survey data. Test results suggest a tradeoff between within-class homogeneity and robustness. The study provides an important perspective on addressing data uncertainty in choropleth map design and offers a new approach for spatial analysts and decision-makers to incorporate robustness into the mapmaking process.     

Impact of projected climate change on the hydrology in the headwaters of the Yellow River basin

Located in the northeast of the Tibetan Plateau, the headwaters of the Yellow River basin (HYRB) are very vulnerable to climate change. In this study, we used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to assess the impact of future climate change on this region's hydrological components for the near future period of 2013–2042 under three emission scenarios A1B, A2 and B1. The uncertainty in this evaluation was considered by employing Bayesian model averaging approach on global climate model (GCM) multimodel ensemble projections. First, we evaluated the capability of the SWAT model for streamflow simulation in this basin. Second, the GCMs' monthly ensemble projections were downscaled to daily climate data using the bias‐correction and spatial‐disaggregation method and then were utilized as input into the SWAT model. The results indicate the following: (1) The SWAT model exhibits a good performance for both calibration and validation periods after adjusting parameters in snowmelt module and establishing elevation bands in sub‐basins. (2) The projected precipitation suggests a general increase under all three scenarios, with a larger extent in both A1B and B1 and a slight variation for A2. With regard to temperature, all scenarios show pronounced warming trends, of which A2 displays the largest amplitude. (3) In the terms of total runoff from the whole basin, there is an increasing trend in the future streamflow at Tangnaihai gauge under A1B and B1, while the A2 scenario is characterized by a declining trend. Spatially, A1B and B1 scenarios demonstrate increasing trends across most of the region. Groundwater and surface runoffs indicate similar trends with total runoff, whereas all three scenarios exhibit an increase in actual evapotranspiration. Generally, both A1B and B1 scenarios suggest a warmer and wetter tendency over the HYRB in the forthcoming decades, while the case for A2 indicates a warmer and drier trend. Findings from this study can provide beneficial reference to water resource and eco‐environment management strategies for governmental policymakers. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Variations of crop coefficient and its influencing factors in an arid advective cropland of northwest China

Understanding the variation and magnitude of crop coefficient (K_c) is important for accurate determination of crop evapotranspiration and water use. In this study, we calculated K_c in an irrigated maize field with ground mulching by eddy covariance evapotranspiration measurements during the whole growing periods in 2009 and 2010 in an arid region of northwest China. A semi‐empirical practical approach for estimating K_c was proposed by introducing the dynamic fraction of canopy cover and incorporating the effect of leaf senescence as a function of days after sowing. The contribution of arid advection of sensible heat resulting from irrigation to K_c and the response of K_c to canopy conductance (G_c) were investigated. The averaged values of daily K_c were lower than typical values obtained previously without mulching due to decreasing effect of mulching on K_c, with 0.82 and 0.80 for the 2 years, respectively. The maximum average K_c occurred at the heading stage, with 1.21 and 1.04 for the 2 years, respectively. The difference of K_c was attributed to the difference of leaf area index. The semi‐empirical practical approach could well estimate the variations of K_c, thus could be a robust and useful tool for the practical users and water managers. The contributions to daily K_c from the arid advection were 4.4–28.0% of the measured K_c. The G_c had stronger control on daily K_c at the early and later stages than at the middle stage. When G_c, leaf area index and relative soil extractable water were lower than the respective threshold values of 20 mm s^?1, 3.0 m² m^?2 and 0.5, the daily K_c increased significantly with the increase of the three factors, and almost remained constant when the three factors were beyond the threshold values. These results are helpful for quantifying contributions of individual factors to K_c, and subsequently improving water management practices according to K_c. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

一种改进的全卷积网络激光点云分类方法

针对在三维空间对点云卷积容易产生过拟合情况,影响点云分类精度的问题,该文提出了一种融合空洞条件随机场的三维点云卷积方法,基于后处理的方式,引入的空洞条件随机场可以对点云中的点进行近邻相似性惩罚并且根据预测结果调整特征权重,从而有效减小过拟合效应,提高点云分类的预测精度.并在国际摄影测量与遥感协会(ISPRS)带标签点云数据集上进行了对比实验,结果表明:该文提出的方法在实验区域点云分类结果上优于其他方法,总体精度达到83.9％.平均F1分数达到71.0％.