长江流域极端强降水分布特征的统计拟合

基于长江流域147个气象站1960-2005年最大值降水序列(AM)与超门限峰值降水序列(POT),选取4大类20种分布函数,采用极大似然法和线性矩法估算了参数,经柯尔莫洛夫-斯米尔诺夫检验,确定了降水极值的最优概率模型.对AM与POT两套极端强降水序列的频率分析均表明,Wakeby分布函数能够较好的拟合长江流域降水极值的概率分布.同时指出了降水极值的拟合存在的不确定性.     

2050年前长江流域地表水资源变化趋势

 利用ECHAM5/MPI-OM气候模式预估2001-2050年长江流域不同排放情景（SRES-A2,A1B,B1）下径流深的变化,分析了长江流域地表水资源量的时空变化特征。结果表明：3种排放情景下长江流域多年平均地表水资源量相差不大,但不同排放情景下年际变化特征较为复杂,且变化趋势有所不同。其中,A2高排放情景下地表水资源量呈缓慢减小的趋势,A1B中等排放情景下变化趋势不明显,B1低排放情景下呈相对最为显著的增加趋势。地表水资源量年代际变化波动幅度也较大,2001-2030年3种情景下地表水资源量总体呈现下降特征,但从2030年起,则均表现出不同程度的增加,最高增幅达7.47%,其中尤以夏季和冬季增加显著。模式预估长江流域未来水资源量仍保持目前水平,水资源空间分布不均匀特征仍较为突出。     

闪电宽带电场三维定位及其回波特征

利用自制闪电宽带电场三维定位系统, 分析了山东地区一次雷暴过程闪电三维时空结构。结果表明, 在云内击穿放电整个时间序列中, 辐射源空间分布（对应强电场区分布）呈现明显的三极性分层电荷结构, 并分布在3个高度层次： 6~8 km为上部正电荷区, 4~6 km为中部负电荷, 2.5~4 km为下部次正电荷区。云内放电首先出现在中部负电荷区, 然后产生向上发展的负流光进入上部正电荷区传输, 形成向上发展的云闪; 随着雷暴发展, 产生向下发展的负流光进入下部次正电荷区, 形成向下发展的云闪, 且能维持到雷暴发展后期。结合雷达回波分析表明, 雷达回波的强度影响着闪电活动, 强回波区的增加会使得强电场区域增加, 但是强电场区域并不与最强回波区域对应, 除下部正电荷区的底部会有部分辐射源出现在回波强度为40~50 dBz的区域中以外, 大多数的辐射源出现在25~35 dBz的中等回波区范围内, 强回波区域中通常较少出现击穿放电。     

Simulation of extreme precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin using Wakeby distribution

Based on the daily observational precipitation data at 147 stations in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960–2005 and projected daily data of 79 grid cells from the ECHAM5/ MPI-OM model in the 20th and 21st century, time series of precipitation extremes which contain AM (Annual Maximum) and MI (Munger Index) are constructed. The distribution feature of precipitation extremes is analyzed based on the two index series. Three principal results were obtained, as stated in the sequel. (i) In the past half century, the intensity of extreme heavy precipitation and drought events was higher in the mid-lower Yangtze than in the upper Yangtze reaches. Although the ECHAM5 model still can’t capture the precipitation extremes over the Yangtze River Basin satisfactorily, spatial pattern of the observed and the simulated precipitation extremes are much similar to each other. (ii) For quantifying the characteristics of extremely high and extremely low precipitation over the Yangtze River Basin, four probability distributions are used, namely: General Extreme Value (GEV), General Pareto (GPA), General Logistic (GLO), and Wakeby (WAK). It was found that WAK can adequately describe the probability distribution of precipitation extremes calculated from both observational and projected data. (iii) Return period of precipitation extremes show spatially different changes under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The 50-year heavy precipitation and drought events from simulated data during 1951–2000 will become more frequent, with return period below 25 years, for the most mid-lower Yangtze region in 2001–2050. The changing character of return periods of precipitation extremes should be taken into account for the hydrological design and future water resources management.     

区域站降水量在汉中地质灾害预报中的应用

通过对汉中2000—2008年地质灾害个例和气象站、区域站降水量统计分析,建立以前期雨量和当日雨量为综合判别指标的地质灾害预报模型。用工具软件VB 6.0、Serfur8.0开发了汉中地质灾害预报系统,自动读取区域站降水量并显示,随时监测地质灾害重点隐患区的降水情况;用前期雨量、未来24 h预报雨量和各县的逐日降水影响系数,计算地质灾害发生气象条件等级,制作汉中地质灾害气象等级预报。     

Analysis of the Initial Stage Intracloud Lightning Using the Pulse Location Technique Based on the Fast Electric Field Change

Academy of Sciences,Beijing 100029 2 Lanzhou University,Lanzhou 730000 3 Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences,Lanzhou 730000 4 Nanjing University of Information Science＆Technology,Nanjing 210044
Using both fast and slow electric field change sensors and field mill,multi-station observations on lightning flashes over China inland plateau areas were conducted during the summer of 2004.All of the stations were synchronized by GPS with a time-resolution of±50 ns.Using the different time of arrival（DTOA）and based on the fast electric field change sensor,a lightning radiation location technique was developed.Radiation pulses in the initial stages of five intracloud（IC）lightning discharges which occurred on 20 August were analyzed.The results indicate that the technique developed could effectively locate the lightning radiation sources.Furthermore,the lightning discharges were compared with the Doppler radar data.The results show that the radiation sources were well associated with the storm development.When the storm was at the mature stage with an echo top of about 10.9 km,the radiation sources ranged from 5.2 to 8.3 km above mean sea level;when the storm gradually became weaker,with echo top of about 7.9 km,the radiation sources ranged from 3.0 to 5.9 km.In particular,one of the IC lightning discharges ranged from 3.0 to 4.9 km during the dissipation stage of the storm.The results also indicate that the radiation sources were closely associated with the high reflectivity region（25–50 dBZ）of the storm,which,to some extent,demonstrates the reliability of the location results,thereby showing that multi-station observations of fast electric field change sensors could be a useful tool for monitoring the storm development.Location errors from radiation sources were also compared with the radar data and the results of a simple simulation.It was found that the errors were getting smaller when the radiation sources approached the center of the detection network, and vice versa.Compared with the limited experimental observations,the simulation results were found capable of effectively reflecting the location errors.     

应用电子探针技术研究桂西南下雷锰矿床锰钾矿的结构特征

八面体分子筛(OMS-2)具有2×2孔道结构,在离子交换、催化剂、能源和环境等方面具有非常重要的应用价值,然而天然OMS-2矿物材料——锰钾矿在典型结构的成分精细表征和成因研究等方面仍然缺乏.环带和核-边结构在锰氧化物矿物的结构中非常具有代表性,明确其矿物种属、探索其成分特征对于探究其成因、开拓锰氧化物的应用具有重要意...     

西昆仑库地蛇绿岩中基性火山岩的Sm-Nd等时线年龄

本文总结了前人有关库地蛇绿岩系各组成单元以及与其有成因联系的岩浆岩的年代学资料,同时利用Sm-Nd法测定了一些克沟基性火山岩的形成时代,获得了 2个晚元古代全岩等时线年龄:1023±51 Ma和834±29 Ma。在此基础上,对库地蛇绿岩系的形成和演化时代进行了讨论,认为库地蛇绿岩中基性火山岩的Sm-Nd等时线年龄可能代表了库地洋开始消减俯冲的年代。     

黄陵背斜的构造几何形态及其成因探讨

黄陵背斜位于扬子克拉通的东缘,其核部出露的崆岭群被认为是扬予克拉通的基底岩石,并成为华南地质学研究的热点地区。从区域上看,黄陵背斜紧邻江汉盆地,东西两侧分别是荆当盆地与秭归盆地,黄陵背斜和周缘盆地构成明显的隆起—坳陷相互对应的构造。详细的野外观察和构造几何学的剖析表明,黄陵背斜的两翼西陡东缓,构成不对称背形的穹隆构造。在穹隆形成过程中,相应的岩石变形以顺层滑脱及相关的褶皱和小规模的逆冲断层为主,在早三叠世薄层灰岩、志留纪龙马溪组页岩、奥陶纪灰岩、寒武纪炭质灰岩以及震旦纪陡山沱组薄层灰岩广泛发育,并具有垂向缩短的重力滑脱特点,构造叠加关系指示了其形成于晚侏罗—早白垩纪之间。在构造变形分析的基础上,并深入探讨了黄陵背斜成因的3种可能的动力学背景。     

陕西省略阳县杨家坝多金属矿区成矿作用地球化学示踪

本文以陕西省略阳县杨家坝多金属矿区为例,通过对该矿区岩(矿)石和各类脉体的岩相学、稀土和微量元素及流体包裹体地球化学示踪发现,多金属中重晶石的形成及硅化、碳酸盐化、滑石化、纤闪石化、绢云母化和绿泥石化和透闪石岩的含氟浅闪石及隐晶硅质玻璃和微晶硅质,这表明与成矿蚀变有关的热液流体是一种不同于一般地壳流体的富硅、钛、铁、碱质和挥发份,并具备熔体性质的成矿流体。各类样品的稀土元素配分模式明显富集LREE,在Ce、Eu、Yb异常的组合上也各具特征。LREE富集是地幔流体作用的显著特征之一;矿石和脉体的负Ce、正Eu和负Yb异常以及流体包裹体中H2O-C6H6成分,是高温还原地幔流体的重要标志;正Ce和负Eu异常的出现,以及Ce、Eu、Yb异常的减弱和消失则是壳幔混染叠加改造的显示。综合研究表明:矿区成矿过程可能统一受制于秦岭地区碰撞造山背景下具高温还原性质的地幔流体作用,且由此引发壳幔强烈混染的叠加改造作用在成矿过程中发挥了重要作用。