汶川8.0级地震地壳形变与“三向应变结构”孕震机制的探讨

我们的研究得出,地震发生时所引起的地壳形变是地震孕育时地壳与岩层应变的逆向反映.也就是说,孕震体破裂时的应变方向与地震孕育时的应变方向是相反的.地震的破裂是应变逆转的破裂,否则地震孕育时所储存的弹性应变能与重力势能就不能释放出来,这是机械能储存与释放的物理定律所规定的.地震的孕育与发生是不能违背这一普遍的物理定律的.因此,从地震发生时所引起的地壳形变就可以推断地震孕育时地壳岩层所发生应变的规律性.     

Impacts of future climate change on agroclimatic resources in Northeast China

In this study, the spatial distribution and changing trends of agricultural heat and precipitation resources in Northeast China were analyzed to explore the impacts of future climate changes on agroclimatic resources in the region. This research is based on the output meteorological data from the regional climate model system for Northeast China from 2005 to 2099, under low and high radiative forcing scenarios RCP4.5 (low emission scenario) and RCP8.5 (high emission scenario) as proposed in IPCC AR5. Model outputs under the baseline scenario, and RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios were assimilated with observed data from 91 meteorological stations in Northeast China from 1961 to 2010 to perform the analyses. The results indicate that: (1) The spatial distribution of temperature decreases from south to north, and the temperature is projected to increase in all regions, especially under a high emission scenario. The average annual temperature under the baseline scenario is 7.70°C, and the average annual temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 9.67°C and 10.66°C, respectively. Other agricultural heat resources change in accordance with temperature changes. Specifically, the first day with temperatures ≥10°C arrives 3 to 4 d earlier, the first frost date is delayed by 2 to 6 d, and the duration of the growing season is lengthened by 4 to 10 d, and the accumulated temperature increases by 400 to 700°C·d. Water resources exhibit slight but not significant increases. (2) While the historical temperature increase rate is 0.35°C/10a, the rate of future temperature increase is the highest under the RCP8.5 scenario at 0.48°C/10a, compared to 0.19°C/10a under the RCP4.5 scenario. In the later part of this century, the trend of temperature increase is significantly faster under the RCP8.5 scenario than under the RCP4.5 scenario, with faster increases in the northern region. Other agricultural heat resources exhibit similar trends as temperature, but with different specific spatial distributions. Precipitation in the growing season generally shows an increasing but insignificant trend in the future, with relatively large yearly fluctuations. Precipitation in the eastern region is projected to increase, while a decrease is expected in the western region. The future climate in Northeast China will change towards higher temperature and humidity. The heat resource will increase globally, however its disparity with the change in precipitation may negatively affect agricultural activities.     

基于分布式水文模型的小流域山洪预报方法与应用

以2016—2017年清江流域2次大径流事件和3次小径流事件为研究对象,首先,分析了CMORPH卫星-地面自动站-雷达三源融合降水产品(CMPAS)、中国全球大气再分析产品(CRA)和雨量站降雨资料(Gauge)3种产品的降水时空分布特征;然后,基于径流事件实况与不同降水产品的特点,设计了两种径流模拟试验方案,对3种产品的降水数据输入WRF-Hydro模式的径流模拟结果进行分析。最后,结合降水时空分布差异,探讨3种降水产品在径流模拟中的应用效果。结果表明: (1)5次径流事件中,3种降水产品探测的降雨中心、雨带位置和走向大致相同,流域内面雨量随时间变化趋势较为一致。(2)两种试验方案下,3种降水产品均能模拟出各次径流事件。对大径流事件,CMPAS的模拟效果最优,相关系数均在0.76以上、纳什效率系数均在0.63以上;对小径流事件,Gauge的模拟效果最优,相关系数均在0.75以上,纳什效率系数均在0.48以上;CRA无论对大、小径流事件,其模拟效果相对都较差,但参数经重新率定后,其模拟效果明显改善。(3)3种降水产品经重新率定参数后(方案2),其在峰现、涨水、退水各时段的径流模拟效果改善不同。对小径流事件,相对涨水和退水时段,各产品在峰现时段的模拟效果改善较为明显,而对大径流事件,3种降水产品在各时段的模拟效果均无明显改善。

     

A time-domain induced-polarization method for estimating permeability in a shaly sand reservoir

It is known that the time‐domain induced‐polarization decay curve for a shaly sand reservoir depends on the pore structure of the reservoir, and this curve can be used to estimate permeability, which is a determining factor in making production decisions in the petroleum industry. Compared with NMR logging tools, induced polarization has several advantages, such as a deep depth of investigation and a high signal‐to‐noise ratio. The purpose of this paper is to establish an appropriate model using induced polarization to estimate the permeability. The curve can be modelled as a weighted superposition of exponential relaxations. The plot of weight versus the relaxation time constant is defined as the relaxation time spectrum. Induced‐polarization decay‐curve measurements were performed on 123 samples from the Daqing oilfield using a four‐electrode technique. A singular‐value decomposition method was used to transform the induced‐polarization decay data into a spectrum. Different models to estimate the permeability were discussed. The results of the research indicate that the induced‐polarization measurements greatly improve the statistical significance of permeability correlations. Compared with the traditional forms, Aφ^C and AF^C, the forms, AT^Bφ^C and AT^BF^C, have lower error factors, where T, Φ and F are the geometric mean time constant of the induced‐polarization relaxation time spectrum, the porosity and the resistivity formation factor, respectively, and A, B and C are constants. The mean time constant is the decisive parameter in the permeability estimation and it is not completely independent of the resistivity formation factor. The additional use of the porosity and the resistivity formation factor leads to an appreciable improvement. It is concluded that this new model will make it possible to estimate the permeability of a shaly sand reservoir downhole.     

城市元胞自动机扩展邻域效应的测量与校准研究

城市元胞模型由于在定量分析与预测城市动态的潜力而受到众多研究者的持续关注.邻域规则是主导城市元胞模型模拟过程的关键组件.研究表明,不同土地利用组合间存在显著的邻域效应,且邻域效应具有惯性、排斥和吸引等影响.然而,传统城市元胞模型主要考虑的是特定分辨率下较小窗口的邻域范围.本文尝试刻画更大窗口的邻域效应及其对元胞模型的影响.基于测量的扩展邻域因子,应用粒子群优化算法校准大窗口邻域规则,并创建了考虑扩展邻域效应的城市元胞模型.为验证模型有效性,将其应用于模拟厦门市1995-2010年期间的城市扩张动态.与3×3摩尔邻域的逻辑回归模型相比较,1995-2010年期间的建设用地模拟精度从80.7％提高到83.9％,总体精度从87.8％提高到89.6％,Kappa系数从70.0％提高到74.5％,表明考虑扩展邻域效应的城市模型取得了更好的模拟效果.     

Simultaneous estimation of surface soil moisture and soil properties with a dual ensemble Kalman smoother

In this paper, a new state-parameter estimation approach is presented based on the dual ensemble Kalman smoother(DEn KS) and simple biosphere model(Si B2) to sequentially estimate both the soil properties and soil moisture profile by assimilating surface soil moisture observations. The Arou observation station, located in the upper reaches of the Heihe River in northwestern China, was selected to test the proposed method. Three numeric experiments were designed and performed to analyze the influence of uncertainties in model parameters, atmospheric forcing, and the model's physical mechanics on soil moisture estimates. Several assimilation schemes based on the ensemble Kalman filter(En KF), ensemble Kalman smoother(En KS), and dual En KF(DEn KF) were also compared in this study. The results demonstrate that soil moisture and soil properties can be simultaneously estimated by state-parameter estimation methods, which can provide more accurate estimation of soil moisture than traditional filter methods such as En KF and En KS. The estimation accuracy of the model parameters decreased with increasing error sources. DEn KS outperformed DEn KF in estimating soil moisture in most cases, especially where few observations were available. This study demonstrates that the DEn KS approach is a useful and practical way to improve soil moisture estimation.     

Helmert方差分量估计理论的优化及其在形变监测网中的应用

将Helmert方差分量估计理论进行优化后应用到形变监测网的数据处理中,使观测数据的权值更加合理,平差结果精度更高,更好地满足形变监测数据处理的要求。实例论证了优化后的Helmert方差分量估计方法的有效性。     

生态脆弱矿区土层中导水裂缝带发育高度研究

为指导生态脆弱区\     

乡村振兴背景下人口迁移对乡村转型发展影响的研究进展与展望

随着新时代乡村振兴战略的实施,中国已经进入乡村转型发展的快速转型阶段,人口迁移出现了新的分化与趋势。科学认知国内外人口迁移对乡村转型发展影响的研究进展对实施乡村振兴战略、调整城乡人口发展格局具有重要意义。系统梳理国内外城乡人口迁移研究的主要内容与研究视角基础上,从农村劳动力迁出与回流、逆城市化视角阐述了人口迁移对乡村转型发展影响的研究进展,最后基于新时代乡村振兴战略需求,提出了人口迁移与乡村转型发展关系的研究展望。     

GMS数值建模方法研究综述

GMS 和 FEFLOW 为地下水数值模拟软件的典型代表,FEFLOW 具有强大的可视化功能和方便的输入输出,其缺点是难以处理复杂的水文地质条件,而 GMS 具有强大齐全的地下水模拟功能,几乎囊括了与地下水有关的所有模拟功能,包括地下水随机模拟.详细介绍了基于有限差分原理的 GMS 软件中的各个模块,以及采用 GMS 软件组建地下水数值模拟模型的各种方法,包括网格法、概念模型法和 Solid 法.