Strip Transect Sampling to Estimate Object Abundance in Homogeneous and Non-homogeneous Poisson Fields: a Simulation Study of the Effects of Changing Transect Width and Number

This paper investigates the use of strip transect sampling to estimate object abundance when the underlying spatial distribution is assumed to be Poisson. A design-based rather than model-based approach to estimation is investigated through computer simulation, with both homogeneous and non-homogeneous fields representing individual realizations of spatial point processes being considered. Of particular interest are the effects of changing the number of transects and transect width (or alternatively, coverage percent or fraction) on the quality of the estimate. A specific application to the characterization of unexploded ordnance (UXO) in the subsurface at former military firing ranges is discussed. The results may be extended to the investigation of outcrop characteristics as well as subsurface geological features.     

Tsunami damage to coastal defences and buildings in the March 11th 2011 M w 9.0 Great East Japan earthquake and tsunami

On March 11th 2011 a M _w 9.0 mega-thrust interface subduction earthquake, the Great East Japan Earthquake, occurred 130 km off the northeast coast of Japan in the Pacific Ocean at the Japan Trench, triggering tsunami which caused damage along 600 km of coastline. Observations of damage to buildings (including vertical evacuation facilities) and coastal defences in Tōhoku are presented following investigation by the Earthquake Engineering Field Investigation Team (EEFIT) at 10 locations in Iwate and Miyagi Prefectures. Observations are presented in the context of the coastal setting and tsunami characteristics experienced at each location. Damage surveys were carried out in Kamaishi City and Kesennuma City using a damage scale for reinforced concrete (RC), timber and steel frame buildings adapted from an earlier EEFIT tsunami damage scale. Observations show that many sea walls and breakwaters were overtopped, overturned, or broken up, but provided some degree of protection. We show the extreme variability of damage in a local area due to inundation depth, flow direction, velocity variations and sheltering. Survival of many RC shear wall structures shows their high potential to withstand local earthquake and significant tsunami inundation but further research is required into mitigation of scour, liquefaction, debris impact, and the prevention of overturning failure. Damage to steel and timber buildings are also discussed. These observations are intended to contribute to mitigation of future earthquake and tsunami damage by highlighting the key features which influence damage level and local variability of damage sustained by urban coastal infrastructure when subjected to extreme tsunami inundation depths.     

Short time scales of magma-mixing processes prior to the 2011 eruption of Shinmoedake volcano, Kirishima volcanic group, Japan

We estimated time scales of magma-mixing processes just prior to the 2011 sub-Plinian eruptions of Shinmoedake volcano to investigate the mechanisms of the triggering processes of these eruptions. The sequence of these eruptions serves as an ideal example to investigate eruption mechanisms because the available geophysical and petrological observations can be combined for interpretation of magmatic processes. The eruptive products were mainly phenocryst-rich (28 vol%) andesitic pumice (SiO₂ 57 wt%) with a small amount of more silicic pumice (SiO₂ 62–63 wt%) and banded pumice. These pumices were formed by mixing of low-temperature mushy silicic magma (dacite) and high-temperature mafic magma (basalt or basaltic andesite). We calculated the time scales on the basis of zoning analysis of magnetite phenocrysts and diffusion calculations, and we compared the derived time scales with those of volcanic inflation/deflation observations. The magnetite data revealed that a significant mixing process (mixing I) occurred 0.4 to 3 days before the eruptions (pre-eruptive mixing) and likely triggered the eruptions. This mixing process was not accompanied by significant crustal deformation, indicating that the process was not accompanied by a significant change in volume of the magma chamber. We propose magmatic overturn or melt accumulation within the magma chamber as a possible process. A subordinate mixing process (mixing II) also occurred only several hours before the eruptions, likely during magma ascent (syn-eruptive mixing). However, we interpret mafic injection to have begun more than several tens of days prior to mixing I, likely occurring with the beginning of the inflation (December 2009). The injection did not instantaneously cause an eruption but could have resulted in stable stratified magma layers to form a hybrid andesitic magma (mobile layer). This hybrid andesite then formed the main eruptive component of the 2011 eruptions of Shinmoedake.     

Modelling the impact of a hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption at La Soufrière of Guadeloupe (Lesser Antilles)

This paper describes the development and application of an impact model for a future hypothetical sub-Plinian eruption of La Soufrière of Guadeloupe. The model was designed to assess the impact from either a single or multiple eruption scenarios, each defined in terms of a map of the intensity of three volcanic hazards; volcanogenic earthquake, tephra fallout and pyroclastic density currents. The impact from the three hazards can be assessed independently or alternatively the joint impact of the three hazards can be assessed. The outputs that are produced from the model are; the number of buildings with collapsed roofs, and the number of fatal and non-fatal casualties.     

Newly-generated Daliangshan Fault Zone—Shortcutting on the central section of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system

The Daliangshan fault zone is the eastern branch in the central section of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system. It has been neglected for a long time, partly because of no destructive earthquake records along this fault zone. On the other hand, it is located on the remote and inaccessible plateau. So far it was excluded as part of the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system. Based on the interpretation of aerophotographs and field investigations, we document this fault zone in detail, and give an estimation of strike-slip rate about 3 mm/a in Late Quaternary together with age dating data. The results suggest that the Daliangshan fault zone is a newly-generated fault zone resulted from shortcutting in the central section of Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system because of the clockwise rotation of the Southeastern Tibetan Crustal Block, which is bounded by the Xianshuihe-Xiaojiang fault system. Moreover, the shortcutting may make the Daliangshan fault zone replace the Anninghe and Zemuhe fault zones gradually, and finally, the later two fault zones will probably die out with the continuous clockwise rotation.     

Rapid evolution of the Eocene accretionary complex (Hyuga Group) of the Shimanto terrane in southeastern Kyushu, southwestern Japan

Abstract   Detailed geologic examination of the Eocene accretionary complex (Hyuga Group) of the Shimanto terrane in southeastern Kyushu revealed that the oceanic plate was composed of Paleocene to Lower Eocene mudstone and siliceous mudstone, lower Middle Eocene red mudstone, and mid-Middle Eocene trench-fill turbidite with siltstone breccia, successively overlying the pre-Eocene oceanic plate. This oceanic plate sequence was overlain by Upper Eocene siltstone. Deposition of the lower Middle Eocene red mudstone was accompanied by basalt flows and it is interbedded with continental felsic tuff, which indicates that the basalt and red mudstone were deposited near the trench just before accretion. The Hyuga Group has very similar geological structure to that of the chert–clastic complexes found in the Jurassic accretionary complexes in Japan: that is, a decollement fault formed in the middle of an oceanic plate sequence, and an imbricate structure formed only in the upper part of the sequence. Thus, it appears that the Hyuga Group was formed by the same accretionary process as the Jurassic accretionary complexes. No accretion occurred before the Middle Eocene, and the rapid accretion of the Hyuga Group was commenced by the supply of coarse terrigenous sediments in the mid-Middle Eocene, when the direction of movement of the Pacific Plate changed. The pre-Eocene oceanic basement and lower Middle Eocene volcanic activity suggest that the oceanic plate partly preserved in the Hyuga Group was very similar to the northern part of the present West Philippine Sea Plate.     

长江口沉积物210Pb分布及沉积环境解释

在长江河口潮滩、分流河道和水下三角洲共获得18个柱样,进行沉积学分析和210Pb测定,并对其中6根柱样进行137Cs测定。经研究发现,长江口外在水深25～30m,122°30′N,31°00′E附近存在一个泥质沉积中心,沉积速率达2.0～6.3cm/yr。另外,在潮滩和涨潮槽也获得较高沉积速率,其中南汇和横沙岛潮滩沉积速率(1.03～1.94cm/yr)高于崇明东滩(0.51～0.76cm/yr),涨潮槽沉积速率也达0.86cm/yr。此外,在石洞口、南汇、九段沙潮滩和三角洲前缘有部分柱样未获沉积速率,推测为沉积环境不稳定或沉积速率过快所致。     

Perturbed physics ensemble using the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean GCM without flux corrections: experimental design and results

In this study, we constructed a perturbed physics ensemble (PPE) for the MIROC5 coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model (CGCM) to investigate the parametric uncertainty of climate sensitivity (CS). Previous studies of PPEs have mainly used the atmosphere-slab ocean models. A few PPE studies using a CGCM applied flux corrections, because perturbations in parameters can lead to large radiation imbalances at the top of the atmosphere and climate drifts. We developed a method to prevent climate drifts in PPE experiments using the MIROC5 CGCM without flux corrections. We simultaneously swept 10 parameters in atmosphere and surface schemes. The range of CS (estimated from our 35 ensemble members) was not wide (2.2–3.2?°C). The shortwave cloud feedback related to changes in middle-level cloud albedo dominated the variations in the total feedback. We found three performance metrics for the present climate simulations of middle-level cloud albedo, precipitation, and ENSO amplitude that systematically relate to the variations in shortwave cloud feedback in this PPE.     

A polarimetric study of Asteroid 25143 Itokawa

The near-Earth Asteroid 25143 Itokawa, the target of the Japanese space mission Hayabusa, was observed in June, 2004 with the Torino photopolarimeter attached at the 2.15 m telescope of the El Leoncito Observatory (Argentina). The degree of linear polarization in five colors was measured over a wide range of phase angles, between 40° and 80°. The data obtained are sufficient to derive an estimate of the asteroid's albedo of 0.24±0.01, which is in good agreement with the S-type taxonomic classification of this object. The phase-polarization curve has been sampled in UBVRI colors, covering a wide range of phase angles that cannot be reached by Earth-based observations of Main Belt asteroids.     

Interstellar cyanomethane

We have made an observational study of the newly identified cyanomethane radical CH2CN and the possibly related species CH3CN with the goals of (1) elucidating the possible role of reactions of the type CnHm(+) + N in astrochemistry, and (2) providing a possible test of Bates's models of dissociative electron recombination. We find a remarkably different abundance ratio CH2CN/CH3CN in TMC-1 and Sgr B2, which we deduce is a result of the large difference in temperature of these objects. Studies of CH2CN and CH3CN in other sources, including two new detections of CH2CN, support this conclusion and are consistent with a monotonic increase in the CH2CN/CH3CN ratio with decreasing temperature over the range 10-120 K. This behavior may be explained by the destruction of CH2CN by reaction with O. If this reaction does not proceed, then CH2CN and CH3CN are concluded to form via different chemical pathways. Thus, they do not provide a test of Bates's conjectures (they do not both form from CH3CNH+). CH2CN is then likely to form via C2H4(+) + N --> CH2CNH+, thus demonstrating the viability of this important reaction in astrochemistry. The T dependence of the CH2CN/CH3CN ratio would then reflect the increasing rate of the C2H4(+) + N reaction with decreasing temperature.