Assessing flood disaster impacts in agriculture under climate change in the river basins of Southeast Asia

Natural Hazards - This study focused on flood damage assessment for future floods under the impact of climate change. Four river basins of Southeast Asia were selected for the study. They included...     

Characteristics of isolated hybrid tremor (HBT) during a calm activity period at Aso Volcano

Isolated-type tremors having two events with different dominant frequencies are characteristic seismological phenomena observed during the fumarolic activity stage at Aso Volcano. These isolated tremors are called hybrid tremors (HBT) and comprise two parts: an initial part named the “HF-part” with a dominant frequency in the high-frequency region (approximately 10 Hz) and the following part named the “LF-part” with a dominant frequency in the low-frequency region (approximately 2 Hz). The LF-part is observed after the HF-part, and the HBT is accompanied by a long-period tremor (LPT). Hypocenters and source parameters are estimated using seismograms recorded at 64 stations around Nakadake crater. The amplitude distributions of all HF-parts have almost similar trends. Similarly, the amplitude distributions of all LF-parts have almost similar trends. However, the amplitude distributions of HF- and LF-parts are not similar. From these results, we proposed that the hypocenters and source parameters of HF- and LF-parts are not common, but each of them have common hypocenters and source parameters. The hypocenter region of HF-parts was estimated to be just beneath the fumarole region south of the 1st crater: the volume fluctuation is the major source factor. The hypocenter region of LF-parts is estimated to be at a depth of approximately 300 m beneath the first crater: the strike–slip component is the major source parameter. The hypocentral depth of LF-parts is located at the upper end of the crack estimated to be the source of the LPTs. The LPTs and HBTs are observed almost simultaneously. We consider that volcanic fluid is involved in the source mechanisms of both HBT and LPT.     

Morphology,structure and flow phases in soil pipes developing in forested hillslopes underlain by a Quaternary sand–gravel formation,Hokkaido, northern main island in Japan

Preferential flow pathways, such as soil pipes, are usually present in the soil of slopes. Subsurface flow through the soil pipes affects the subsurface drainage system and is responsible for sediment removal from slopes. However, a record of the inner structure of soil pipes has rarely been reported for slopes. A fibrescope examination of the morphology and flow phases in soil pipes in hillslopes underlain by a Quaternary sand–gravel formation provided the following information: the main pores of the soil pipes ran mostly parallel with the slope gradient; the cross‐sections of the soil pipes were approximately circular; and occurred on a few occasions; with some triple junctions being present. In addition, both full flow and partly full‐depth conditions occurred simultaneously in the soil pipe. The full flow condition has long been used in hydrological studies to model the pipe flow mechanism. Both the full flow condition and the partly full‐depth condition, however, must be examined closely in order to evaluate the subsurface hydrology in heterogeneous soil and the hydrogeomorphological processes of subsurface hydraulic erosion. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The interannual precipitation variability in the southern part of Iran as linked to large-scale climate modes

The interannual variation of precipitation in the southern part of Iran and its link with the large-scale climate modes are examined using monthly data from 183 meteorological stations during 1974–2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. The interannual variation in fall and early winter during the first part of the rainy season shows apparently a significant positive correlation with the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, a partial correlation analysis used to extract the respective influence of IOD and ENSO shows a significant positive correlation only with the IOD and not with ENSO. The southeasterly moisture flux anomaly over the Arabian Sea turns anti-cyclonically and transport more moisture to the southern part of Iran from the Arabian Sea, the Red Sea, and the Persian Gulf during the positive IOD. On the other hand, the moisture flux has northerly anomaly over Iran during the negative IOD, which results in reduced moisture supply from the south. During the latter part of the rainy season in late winter and spring, the interannual variation of precipitation is more strongly influenced by modes of variability over the Mediterranean Sea. The induced large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly controls moisture supply from the Red Sea and the Persian Gulf.     

On the Ningaloo Niño/Niña

Using both observational and reanalysis data, evolution processes of a regional climate phenomenon off Western Australia named recently “Ningaloo Niño (Niña)” are studied in detail. It is also shown that the Ningaloo Niño (Niña) has significant impacts on the precipitation over Australia. The Ningaloo Niño (Niña), which is associated with positive (negative) sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and atmospheric anomalies off the western coast of Australia, peaks during austral summer and is classified into two types based on the difference in the evolution process. The first type called a locally amplified mode develops through an intrinsic unstable air–sea interaction off the western coast of Australia; an anomalous cyclone (anticyclone) generated by positive (negative) SST anomalies forces northerly (southerly) alongshore wind anomalies, which induce coastal downwelling (upwelling) anomalies, and enhance the positive (negative) SST anomalies further. The second type called a non-locally amplified mode is associated with coastally trapped waves originating in either the western tropical Pacific, mostly related to El Niño/Southern Oscillation, or the northern coast of Australia. Positive (negative) SST anomalies in both modes are associated with an anomalous low (high) off the western coast of Australia. The sea level pressure (SLP) anomalies in the locally amplified mode are regionally confined with a cell-like pattern and produce a sharp offshore pressure gradient along the western coast of Australia, whereas those in the non-locally amplified mode tend to show a zonally elongated pattern. The difference is found to be related to conditions of the continental SLP modulated by the Australian summer monsoon and/or the Southern Annular Mode.     

Recognizing cryptic environmental changes by using paleoecology and taphonomy of Pleistocene bivalve assemblages in the Oga Peninsula,northern Japan

Multivariate analyses applied to Pleistocene bivalve assemblages from the Oga Peninsula (northern Japan) discriminate three distinct assemblages. The assemblages and their taphonomy were used to recognize environmental settings and changes. The Astarte–Cyclocardia–Glycymeris assemblage indicates shelf environment (below the storm wave base) where gravels and shells are transported from shallower settings. Supply of the exotic coarse sediment probably enabled epifaunal bivalves to inhabit the sea floor. The Glycymeris assemblage is characterized by dominance of G. yessoensis and represents current-swept shoreface environment (above the storm wave base). The Moerella assemblage is characterized by bivalves inhabiting bay to open-marine conditions and diverse deposit-feeders, indicating a moderately land-locked environment, such as an open bay or a bay mouth. Fine-grained substrata rich in organic matters in the bay were probably suitable for the deposit-feeders. Ordination also shows the assemblages along two environmental gradients, a bathymetrical one and the other related to open-marine and bay conditions. The environmental changes are explained mainly by glacio-eustatic sea-level changes and alternation of coastal geomorphology caused by local crustal movements. This study also suggests that fossil assemblages can be a powerful tool to reconstruct environments and depositional dynamics even in intensely bioturbated sedimentary facies.     

Transit time evaluation using a chloride concentration input step shift after forest cutting in a Japanese headwater catchment

Mean transit times were estimated for a small headwater catchment in Japan (the Fukuroyamasawa Experimental Watershed) using the step shift in input chloride (Cl^?) concentrations that occurred immediately after an episode of forest clear‐cutting. Measured Cl^? concentrations in stream water began to decrease immediately after clear‐cutting, and this trend continued for 6 years. Before clear‐cutting, the input Cl^? concentrations were controlled by wet and dry deposition processes, and most of the dry Cl^? deposition was collected by the forest canopy and reached the ground as throughfall and stemflow. After clear‐cutting, dry deposition was no longer collected by the canopy in this way, thus causing a sharp decrease in input Cl^? concentrations. By comparing measured Cl^? concentrations in stream water with estimates based on the input and evaporative Cl^? concentrations, it was shown that the decrease in stream water Cl^? concentrations was caused mainly by this step shift in the Cl^? input. It was proposed that the change in Cl^? concentrations after forest cutting could be used to represent the replacement of ‘old’ water that existed before cutting by ‘new’ water that was supplied after cutting. The breakthrough curve for the new water fraction gave an approximately exponential distribution of transit times in flow‐corrected time. The mean flow‐corrected transit time was estimated as 1068 days (runoff: 3497 mm). It was therefore concluded that the step change in input Cl^? concentrations immediately following forest clear‐cutting could be successfully used to estimate transit times for the entire catchment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Yamato 86029: Aqueously altered and thermally metamorphosed CI‐like chondrite with unusual textures

Abstract— We describe the petrologic and trace element characteristics of the Yamato 86029 (Y‐86029) meteorite. Y‐86029 is a breccia consisting of a variety of clasts, and abundant secondary minerals including coarse‐ and fine‐grained phyllosilicates, Fe‐Ni sulfides, carbonates, and magnetite. There are no chondrules, but a few anhydrous olivine‐rich grains are present within a very fine‐grained phyllosilicate‐rich matrix. Analyses of 14 thermally mobile trace elements suggest that Y‐86029 experienced moderate, open‐system thermal metamorphism. Comparison with data for other heated carbonaceous chondrites suggests metamorphic temperatures of 500–600°C for Y‐86029. This is apparent petrographically, in partial dehydration of phyllosilicates to incompletely re‐crystallized olivine. This transformation appears to proceed through ‘intermediate’ highly‐disordered ‘poorly crystalline’ phases consisting of newly formed olivine and residual desiccated phyllosilicate and their mixtures. Periclase is also present as a possible heating product of Mg‐rich carbonate precursors. Y‐86029 shows unusual textures rarely encountered in carbonaceous chondrites. The periclase occurs as unusually large Fe‐rich clasts (300–500 μm). Fine‐grained carbonates with uniform texture are also present as small (10–15 μm in diameter), rounded to sub‐rounded ‘shells’ of ankerite/siderite enclosing magnetite. These carbonates appear to have formed by low temperature aqueous alteration at specific thermal decomposition temperatures consistent with thermodynamic models of carbonate formation. The fine and uniform texture suggests crystallization from a fluid circulating in interconnected spaces throughout entire growth. One isolated aggregate in Y‐86029 also consists of a mosaic of polycrystalline olivine aggregates and sulfide blebs typical of shock‐induced melt re‐crystallization. Except for these unusual textures, the isotopic, petrologic and chemical characteristics of Y‐86029 are quite similar to those of Y‐82162, the only other heated CI‐like chondrite known. They were probably derived from similar asteroids rather than one asteroid, and hence may not necessarily be paired.     

A low-carbon society: global visions,pathways, and challenges

The feasibility of two low-carbon society (LCS) scenarios, one with and one without nuclear power and carbon capture and storage (CCS), is evaluated using the AIM/Enduse[Global] model. Both scenarios suggest that achieving a 50% emissions reduction target (relative to 1990 levels) by 2050 is technically feasible if locally suited technologies are introduced and the relevant policies, including necessary financial transfers, are appropriately implemented. In the scenario that includes nuclear and CCS options, it will be vital to consider the risks and acceptance of these technologies. In the scenario without these technologies, the challenge will be how to reduce energy service demand. In both scenarios, the estimated investment costs will be higher in non-Annex I countries than in Annex I countries. Finally, the enhancement of capacity building to support the deployment of locally suited technologies will be central to achieving an LCS.

Policy relevance

Policies to reduce GHG emissions up to 2050 are critical if the long-term target of stabilizing the climate is to be achieved. From a policy perspective, the cost and social acceptability of the policy used to reduce emissions are two of the key factors in determining the optimal pathways to achieve this. However, the nuclear accident at Fukushima highlighted the risk of depending on large-scale technologies for the provision of energy and has led to a backlash against the use of nuclear technology. It is found that if nuclear and CCS are used it will be technically feasible to halve GHG emissions by 2050, although very costly. However, although the cost of halving emissions will be about the same if neither nuclear nor CCS is used, a 50% reduction in emissions reduction will not be achievable unless the demand for energy service is substantially reduced.     

Acid‐susceptive material as a host phase of argon‐rich noble gas in the carbonaceous chondrite Ningqiang

Abstract— A fine‐grained dark inclusion in the Ningqiang carbonaceous chondrite consists of relatively pristine solar nebular materials and has high concentrations of heavy primordial rare gases. Trapped 36Ar concentration amounts to 6 times 10^?6 cc STP/g, which is higher than that of Ningqiang host by a factor of three. Light HF‐HCl etching of the dark inclusion removed 86, 73, and 64% of the primordial ³⁶Ar, ⁸⁴Kr, and ¹³²Xe, respectively. Thus, the majority of the noble gases in this inclusion are located in very acid‐susceptive material. Based on the elemental composition, the noble gases lost from the dark inclusion during the acid‐treatments are Ar‐rich, and the noble gases remaining in the inclusion are Q and HL gases. Transmission electron microscopy showed that the acid treatments removed thin Si, Mg, and Fe‐rich amorphous rims present around small olivine and pyroxene grains in the dark inclusion, suggesting that the Ar‐rich gases reside in the amorphous layers. A possible origin of the Ar‐rich gases is the acquisition of noble‐gas ions with a composition fractionated relative to solar abundance favoring the heavy elements by the effect of incomplete ionization under plasma conditions at 8000 K electron temperature.