Predicting and forecasting flow discharge at sites receiving significant lateral inflow

Two models, one linear and one non‐linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non‐linear model is based on a multilayer feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow‐stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real‐time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow‐stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4‐h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8‐h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Pennsylvanian glacimarine sedimentation in the Cushamen Formation,western North Patagonian Massif

The metasedimentary sequence of the Cushamen Formation in the western North Patagonian Massif is540 m thick and comprises six sedimentary lithofacies associations related to a glacimarine environment.Four of these lithofacies represent distal glacimarine environments, whereas another one was deposited in proximal glacimarine environments, and the last includes subglacial environments. The organization and configuration of these lithofacies associations represent the advance and retreat of the glacier masses. The maximum glacial advance is correlatable with the G2 glacial interval of the Pennsylvanian Pampa de Tepuel, Las Salinas and Valley Chico, formations of the Extraandean Chubut, and the southern part of Neuquen Cordillera. Contemporaneously, in southern Chile there are marine and glacimarine sediments. The chronostratigraphic relationships between the Silurian to Permian units allow five paleogeographic stages to be distinguished. The middle Silurian-late Devonian igneous rocks represent the first magmatic stage. The second stage, which is transitional to the first, is represented by a marine basin that includes the late Devonian-early Carboniferous Esquel and Rio Pescado formations and the Llanquihue Complex. The third stage(early-late Carboniferous) includes granitoids of the second magmatic event that partially overlapped the first magmatic igneous belt. The fourth stage belongs to the late Carboniferous sedimentation of the Cushamen and equivalent formations. The extended early Permian magmatism was the last Paleozoic event in the studied area.     

Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand

A higher precipitation concentration, represented by greater percentages of the yearly total precipitation in a few very rainy days, has the potential to impact considerably on water resources. In this paper, an investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of daily precipitation concentration in New Zealand has been carried out by means of a daily precipitation dataset. Results show a different behavior between North Island, with the most critical rainfall concentration, and South Island, where precipitation concentration values on the eastern side are comparable to those of North Island, while the western side presents the lowest values of precipitation concentration. On a seasonal scale, the spatial gradients for summer and autumn are similar to the annual one. The application of the Mann–Kendall test shows a general negative trend detected in the eastern part of North Island, in particular in winter and autumn, and a west/east difference trend in South Island, in particular in winter and summer.     

Combining ECCI and FIB milling techniques to prepare site-specific TEM samples for crystal defect analysis of deformed minerals at high pressure

Dislocation microstructures in experimentally deformed single-crystal pyrope-rich garnet, (Mg,Fe)₃(Al,Cr)₃Si₃O₁₂, and polycrystalline forsterite, Mg₂SiO₄, were investigated by using electron channeling contrast imaging (ECCI) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) combined with a focused ion beam (FIB)-microsampling. In the orientation-optimized ECCI method, we successfully observed individual dislocations across subgrain boundaries in a low-atomic-number mineral, pyrope-rich garnet (averaged Z-numbers, AZs ～ 10). Dislocations in a deformed forsterite (iron-free olivine) were also visible in the ECCI. In the ECCI on the single-crystal garnet, deformation bands consisting of dislocations, unusual contrasts in stripes and inhomogeneous distributions of sub-micrometer-sized pores were found. Further site-specific TEM observation on the deformation band revealed a high density of partial dislocations and stacking fault ribbons. The site-specific characterizations from ECCI to TEM, with assistance of FIB, can provide a new approach to investigate dislocation microstructures of deformed materials at high pressure and high temperature.     

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.     

The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.     

Investigating the uncertainty of satellite altimetry products for hydrodynamic modelling

Satellite altimetry products are increasingly used in many hydraulic applications, and recent studies demonstrate their suitability for the calibration of hydraulic models. The study investigates the effect of satellite‐data uncertainty on the calibration of a quasi‐two‐dimensional (quasi‐2D) model of the middle‐lower portion of the Po river (~140 km). We refer to extended (~16 years of observations) ERS and ENVISAT altimetry products (i.e. River and Lake Hydrology data, RLH) to investigate the effect of (i) record length (i.e. number of satellite measurements at a given satellite track) and (ii) data uncertainty (i.e. altimetry measurements errors) on the calibration of the quasi‐2D model. We first present an assessment of ERS and ENVISAT altimetry errors and then perform the investigations in a Monte Carlo framework by generating datasets of synthetic altimetry products. The results of our analysis further emphasize the suitability of satellite data for the calibration of hydraulic models, providing also a quantitative assessment of the effect of the uncertainty of altimetry products. The analysis highlights the higher accuracy of ENVISAT data, which ensures a stable calibration with ~1.5 years of data (Mean Absolute Error, MAE, lower than 0.4 m, ~0.2 m of which results directly from the uncertainty of ENVISAT data). ERS‐based calibrations become stable with longer series (~3.5–5 years of data), and the negative effect of uncertainty in ERS data is higher (i.e. MAE of 0.6–0.9 m, of which 0.4–0.6 m results from the uncertainty of ERS measurements). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Seasonal and event-controlled export of organic matter from the shelf towards the Gulf of Lions continental slope

To investigate the role of coastal canyons in the transfer of organic matter from the shelf to the slope and basin, we deployed sediment trap/current meter pairs at the head of five canyons in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) between November 2003 and May 2004. Analysis of organic carbon, biogenic silica, Corg isotopic composition, Corg/total nitrogen, chloropigments, and amino acids clearly shows the seasonal influence and effect of extreme meteorological events on the composition of collected particles. The sampling period was divided into three “scenarios”. The first corresponded to a large easterly storm and flood of the Rhone river during stratified water column conditions; the composition of material collected during this event was influenced by increased transfer of riverine and coastal particulate matter, with a lower Corg content. During the second “fall-winter” scenario, northern and northwestern winds blowing over the shelf caused cooling and homogenization of the shelf water column; particles collected at this time reflected the homogeneous source of particulate matter transported through canyons; particles sitting in the vicinity of canyon heads are most likely swept downslope by the general south-westward circulation. Organic tracers indicate a degraded origin for organic matter transported during this period. A third “spring” scenario corresponded to northern winds alternating with eastward windstorms that triggered and/or enhanced the cascading of dense waters accumulated on the bottom of the shelf due to previous cooling. These conditions occurred in conjunction with increased phytoplankton productivity in shelf surface waters. Organic matter advected mainly by dense shelf water cascading was fresher due to the transport of newly produced particles and a variable terrestrial fraction; this fraction depended on the proportion of resuspended material accumulated during previous high discharge periods that was involved in each transport pulse. The tight link shown between meteorological conditions and organic matter transport is important for continental margin geochemical studies as future changes in climatic conditions may lead to dramatic changes in carbon sequestration capability and in the ecosystems of deep margin environments.     

Preliminary Results from Paleomagnetic Records on Lake Sediments from South America

The preliminary results of paleomagnetic and radiocarbon dating of late pleistocene-holocene sediments from two lakes of south-western Argentina (41°S, 71.5°W) are presented. The magnetic susceptibility, intensity and direction of the natural remanent magnetisation were measured. The stability of the natural remanent magnetisation was investigated by alternating field demagnetisation. The magnetic parameters allowed the cores within each lake to be correlated. ¹³ C analysis, total organic content measurements and C ¹⁴ dating were carried out. A model of sedimentation is suggested. Using this model and the correlation, curves of variations of magnetic inclination and declination in time are shown.     

Holocene hydrological changes in south-western Mediterranean as recorded by lake-level fluctuations at Lago Preola,a coastal lake in southern Sicily,Italy

This paper presents a high-resolution lake-level record for the Holocene at Lago Preola (Sicily, southern Italy) based on a specific sedimentological approach, with a chronology derived from AMS radiocarbon dates. It gives evidence of three major successive palaeohydrological periods, with (1) a pronounced dryness during the early Holocene until ca 10300 cal BP, (2) a highstand from ca 10300 to 4500 cal BP, and (3) a marked lowstand from 4500 cal BP to present. Large amplitude lake-level fluctuations characterise two transition phases at ca 10300–9000 and 6400–4500 cal BP. Period 2 was interrupted between 8300 and 7000 cal BP by a dry phase that was punctuated to ca 7300 cal BP by the deposition of a tephra from neighbouring Pantelleria Island. Comparisons of the Preola record with other palaeohydrological records along north–south and west–east transects in the Mediterranean show contrasting patterns of hydrological changes: north (south) of around 40°N latitude, the records highlight a mid-Holocene period characterised by lake-level minima (maxima). Humid mid-Holocene conditions over the Mediterranean south of 40°N were probably linked to a strong weakening of the Hadley cell circulation and of monsoon winds. We suggest that the maximum of humidity in the Mediterranean during the mid-Holocene was characterised by humid winters to the north of 40°N and humid summers to the south. On a multi-centennial scale, the high-resolution palaeohydrological reconstructions in the central Mediterranean area reveal a strong climate reversal around 4500–4000 cal BP, with contrasting changes in the hydrological cycle. In addition to seasonal and inter-hemispherical changes related to orbital forcing, this major oscillation might be related to non-linear responses of the climatic system to the gradual decrease in summer insolation at northern latitudes. Another major climate oscillation around 7500–7000 cal BP may have resulted from the combined effects of (1) a strong rate of change in insolation, and (2) variations in solar activity. Finally, comparisons of the Preola lake-level record with Sicilian pollen records suggest a strong influence of moisture availability on vegetation development in Sicily. Very dry early Holocene conditions probably prevented the expansion of coastal evergreen forests, while decreasing moisture availability since the onset of the late Holocene may have exacerbated effects of intensive land-use.