A comparison among olive flowering trends in different Mediterranean areas (south-central Italy) in relation to meteorological variations

Phenological observations of the anthesic phases of olive flowering in a central Mediterranean area were recorded over a 9-year period. The aim of this research was to compare the flowering dates in relationship to the meteorological changes. Pollen emission from anthers was monitored by remote instrumentation placed directly in olive groves and phenological data regarding daily pollen concentrations (pollen/m³) were recorded using a pollen monitoring methodology. The rhythm of the phenological phases emerged as dependent on the meteorological trend of the spring forcing temperature. Generally, the phenomenon of pollen emission occurred progressively earlier prior to 2001, while in the following 5 years, the trend seemed to be inverted, showing a progressive delay of flowering. The spring quarterly mean temperature trends registered by GISS data in Europe confirmed the presence of diverse meteorological behavior during the study period, probably causing the biological divergences that were monitored. The principal result of the present contribution is to evidence the relativity of empirical investigations and observations considering different time intervals. This is due to the partial, brief series (9 years) of flowering dates which have to be considered as part of a longer series (26 years) in order to have a complete vision of the true phenomenon.     

Holocene environmental and climatic changes at Gorgo Basso,a coastal lake in southern Sicily,Italy

We used a new sedimentary record to reconstruct the Holocene vegetation and fire history of Gorgo Basso, a coastal lake in south-western Sicily (Italy). Pollen and charcoal data suggest a fire-prone open grassland near the site until ca 10,000 cal yr BP (8050 cal BC), when Pistacia shrubland expanded and fire activity declined, probably in response to increased moisture availability. Evergreen Olea europaea woods expanded ca 8400 to decline abruptly at 8200 cal yr BP, when climatic conditions became drier at other sites in the Mediterranean region. Around 7000 cal yr BP evergreen broadleaved forests (Quercus ilex, Quercus suber and O. europaea) expanded at the cost of open communities. The expansion of evergreen broadleaved forests was associated with a decline of fire and of local Neolithic (Ficus carica–Cerealia based) agriculture that had initiated ca 500 years earlier. Vegetational, fire and land-use changes ca 7000 cal yr BP were probably caused by increased precipitation that resulted from (insolation-forced) weakening of the monsoon and Hadley circulation ca 8000–6000 cal yr BP. Low fire activity and dense coastal evergreen forests persisted until renewed human activity (probably Greek, respectively Roman colonists) disrupted the forest ca 2700 cal yr BP (750 BC) and 2100 cal yr BP (150 BC) to gain open land for agriculture. The intense use of fire for this purpose induced the expansion of open maquis, garrigue, and grassland-prairie environments (with an increasing abundance of the native palm Chamaerops humilis). Prehistoric land-use phases after the Bronze Age seem synchronous with those at other sites in southern and central Europe, possibly as a result of climatic forcing. Considering the response of vegetation to Holocene climatic variability as well as human impact we conclude that under (semi-)natural conditions evergreen broadleaved Q. ilex–O. europaea (s.l.) forests would still dominate near Gorgo Basso. However, forecasted climate change and aridification may lead to a situation similar to that before 7000 cal yr BP and thus trigger a rapid collapse of the few relict evergreen broadleaved woodlands in coastal Sicily and elsewhere in the southern Mediterranean region.     

Nitrogen Mass Fraction and Stable Isotope Ratios for Fourteen Geological Reference Materials: Evaluating the Applicability of Elemental Analyser Versus Sealed Tube Combustion Methods

Thirteen commercially available silicate reference materials (RM) and one in‐house reference material, eleven of which have no previously published values, were analysed for nitrogen mass fraction and isotopic ratios with an Elemental Analyser (EA), and a Sealed Tube Combustion line, coupled to a continuous flow isotope ratio mass spectrometer (IRMS). These materials ranged from < 10 μg g^?1 to 1% m/m nitrogen mass fractions and δ¹⁵N of ?0.5 to +19.8‰. Existing nitrogen RM BHVO‐2, MS#5 and SGR‐1b were used to assess the accuracy of the data from the sealed tube combustion line, which was found to be in good agreement with existing published values. In contrast, the EA‐IRMS failed to fully liberate nitrogen from all silicate rocks and minerals (achieving a mean of 44 ± 10% nitrogen yield) resulting in kinetic fractionation of isotope values by ?1.4‰ on average. Therefore, sealed tube combustion is better suited for analyses of silicate‐bound nitrogen. The EA worked reliably for organic samples, but care should be taken when using the EA for silicate nitrogen research. Moving forward, it is recommended that BHVO‐2, Biotite‐Fe, FK‐N and UB‐N be used as quality control materials as they appear to be most reproducible in terms of nitrogen mass fraction (relative error < 10%, 1s), and isotopic composition (< 0.6‰, 1s).     

Acceleration waves,shock formation and stability in a gravitating atmosphere

The shock formation in a gravitating atmosphere is studied by following the general nonlinear theory of discontinuity waves. In particular, we perform a discussion on the stability of an isothermal and isoentropic atmosphere and we evaluate, when the shock appears, the critical time and the critical height. Some numerical results for the solar and terrestrial atmospheres are also given.     

Accuracy of kinematic wave and diffusion wave for spatial‐varying rainfall excess over a plane

The kinematic‐wave and diffusive‐wave approximations were investigated for unsteady overland flow resulting from spatially varying rainfall excess. Three types of boundary conditions were adopted: zero flow at the upstream end, and critical flow and zero depth‐gradient at the downstream end. Errors were derived by comparing the dimensionless profiles of the flow depth over the plane with those computed from the dynamic‐wave solution. It was found that the mean errors for both the approximations were independent of the type of rainfall excess distribution for KF₀² > 5, where K is the kinematic‐wave number and F₀ is the Froude number. Therefore, the regions (KF₀², F₀) where the kinematic‐wave and diffusive‐wave solutions would be fairly accurate and for any distribution of spatially varying rainfall, were characterized. The kinematic‐wave approximation was reasonably accurate, with a mean error of less than 5% and for the critical depth at the downstream end, for KF₀² ≥ 20 with F₀ ≤ 1; if the rainfall excess was concentrated in a portion of the plane, the field where the kinematic‐wave solution was found accurate, it was more limited and characterized for KF₀² > 35 with F₀ ≤ 1. The diffusive‐wave solution was in good agreement with the dynamic‐wave solution with a mean error of less than 5%, in the flow depth, for KF₀² ≥ 15 with F₀ ≤ 1; for rainfall excess concentrated in a portion of the plane, the accuracy of the diffusion wave solution was in a region more restricted and defined for KF₀² ≥ 30 with F₀ ≤ 1. For zero‐depth gradient at the downstream end, the accuracy field of the kinematic‐wave was found to be greater and characterized for KF₀² > 10 with F₀ ≤ 1; for rainfall excess concentrated in a portion of the plane, the region was smaller and defined for KF₀² > 15 with F₀ ≤ 1. The diffusive‐wave solution was found accurate in the region defined for KF₀² > 7·5, whereas for rainfall excess concentrated in a portion of the plane, the field of accuracy was for KF₀² > 12·5 with F₀ ≤ 1. The lower limits of the regions, defined on KF₀², can be considered generally valid for both approximations, but for F₀ < 1 smaller lower limits were also characterized. Finally, the accuracy of these approximations was influenced significantly by the downstream boundary condition. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Predicting and forecasting flow discharge at sites receiving significant lateral inflow

Two models, one linear and one non‐linear, were employed for the prediction of flow discharge hydrographs at sites receiving significant lateral inflow. The linear model is based on a rating curve and permits a quick estimation of flow at a downstream site. The non‐linear model is based on a multilayer feed‐forward back propagation (FFBP) artificial neural network (ANN) and uses flow‐stage data measured at the upstream and downstream stations. ANN predicted the real‐time storm hydrographs satisfactorily and better than did the linear model. The results of sensitivity analysis indicated that when the lateral inflow contribution to the channel reach was insignificant, ANN, using only the flow‐stage data at the upstream station, satisfactorily predicted the hydrograph at the downstream station. The prediction error of ANN increases exponentially with the difference between the peak discharge used in training and that used in testing. ANN was also employed for flood forecasting and was compared with the modified Muskingum model (MMM). For a 4‐h lead time, MMM forecasts the floods reliably but could not be applied to reaches for lead times greater than the wave travel time. Although ANN and MMM had comparable performances for an 8‐h lead time, ANN is capable of forecasting floods with lead times longer than the wave travel time. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.     

In situ measurements of soil saturated hydraulic conductivity: Assessment of reliability through rainfall–runoff experiments

The saturated hydraulic conductivity, K_s, is a soil property that has a key role in the partitioning of rainfall into surface runoff and infiltration. The commonly used instruments and methods for in situ measurements of K_s have frequently provided conflicting results. Comparison of K_s estimates obtained by three classical devices—namely, the double ring infiltrometer (DRI), the Guelph version of the constant‐head well permeameter (GUELPH‐CHP) and the CSIRO version of the tension permeameter (CSIRO‐TP) is presented. A distinguishing feature in this study is the use of steady deep flow rates, obtained from controlled rainfall–runoff experiments, as benchmark values of K_s at local and field‐plot scales, thereby enabling an assessment of these methods in reliably reproducing repeatable values and in their capability of determining plot‐scale variation of K_s. We find that the DRI grossly overestimates K_s, the GUELPH‐CHP gives conflicting estimates of K_s with substantial overestimation in laboratory experiments and underestimation at the plot scale, whereas the CSIRO‐TP yields average K_s values with significant errors of 24% in the plot scale experiment and 66% in laboratory experiments. Although the DRI would likely yield a better estimate of the nature of variability than the GUELPH‐CHP and CSIRO‐TP, a separate calibration may be warranted to correct for the overestimation of K_s values. The reasons for such discrepancies within and between the measurement methods are not yet fully understood and serve as motivation for future work to better characterize the uncertainty associated with individual measurements of K_s using these methods and the characterization of field scale variability from multiple local measurements.     

Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand

A higher precipitation concentration, represented by greater percentages of the yearly total precipitation in a few very rainy days, has the potential to impact considerably on water resources. In this paper, an investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of daily precipitation concentration in New Zealand has been carried out by means of a daily precipitation dataset. Results show a different behavior between North Island, with the most critical rainfall concentration, and South Island, where precipitation concentration values on the eastern side are comparable to those of North Island, while the western side presents the lowest values of precipitation concentration. On a seasonal scale, the spatial gradients for summer and autumn are similar to the annual one. The application of the Mann–Kendall test shows a general negative trend detected in the eastern part of North Island, in particular in winter and autumn, and a west/east difference trend in South Island, in particular in winter and summer.