The Lago di Varano: Hydrologic Characteristics and Sediment Composition

Abstract. The Lago di Varano is situated on the north side of the Gargano National Park (southeast Italy) and covers a surface area of about 65 km². It communicates with the Adriatic Sea through two artificial canals (Foce Capoiale and Foce Varano) located at the two ends of a long and narrow coastal dune. This work presents preliminary results of four seasonal surveys (1999–2000) carried out to measure chemical and physical parameters of the water column (temperature, salinity, dissolved oxygen and pH) and to analyse a number of biogeochemical characteristics of surface sediments (organic matter, total phosphorus, total nitrogen and total Hg, As, Pb, Cd, Cr, Cu and Ni content). Water analysis indicated poor exchange between the coastal pond and the open sea, limited to autumn and winter. Surface sediments were rich in organic matter, whose distribution was influenced by chemical-physical and hydrodynamic variations in the water column. At the sediment level, the highest values of Cd were found in the central zone of the basin, while the highest Cr values were measured in the central and southeastern areas. With the exception of Cd and Pb, the metal content did not indicate anthropogenic pollution, in particular when compared with the Venice Lagoon and the Central Adriatic Sea.     

Seasonal and event-controlled export of organic matter from the shelf towards the Gulf of Lions continental slope

To investigate the role of coastal canyons in the transfer of organic matter from the shelf to the slope and basin, we deployed sediment trap/current meter pairs at the head of five canyons in the Gulf of Lions (GoL) between November 2003 and May 2004. Analysis of organic carbon, biogenic silica, Corg isotopic composition, Corg/total nitrogen, chloropigments, and amino acids clearly shows the seasonal influence and effect of extreme meteorological events on the composition of collected particles. The sampling period was divided into three “scenarios”. The first corresponded to a large easterly storm and flood of the Rhone river during stratified water column conditions; the composition of material collected during this event was influenced by increased transfer of riverine and coastal particulate matter, with a lower Corg content. During the second “fall-winter” scenario, northern and northwestern winds blowing over the shelf caused cooling and homogenization of the shelf water column; particles collected at this time reflected the homogeneous source of particulate matter transported through canyons; particles sitting in the vicinity of canyon heads are most likely swept downslope by the general south-westward circulation. Organic tracers indicate a degraded origin for organic matter transported during this period. A third “spring” scenario corresponded to northern winds alternating with eastward windstorms that triggered and/or enhanced the cascading of dense waters accumulated on the bottom of the shelf due to previous cooling. These conditions occurred in conjunction with increased phytoplankton productivity in shelf surface waters. Organic matter advected mainly by dense shelf water cascading was fresher due to the transport of newly produced particles and a variable terrestrial fraction; this fraction depended on the proportion of resuspended material accumulated during previous high discharge periods that was involved in each transport pulse. The tight link shown between meteorological conditions and organic matter transport is important for continental margin geochemical studies as future changes in climatic conditions may lead to dramatic changes in carbon sequestration capability and in the ecosystems of deep margin environments.     

Investigating the uncertainty of satellite altimetry products for hydrodynamic modelling

Satellite altimetry products are increasingly used in many hydraulic applications, and recent studies demonstrate their suitability for the calibration of hydraulic models. The study investigates the effect of satellite‐data uncertainty on the calibration of a quasi‐two‐dimensional (quasi‐2D) model of the middle‐lower portion of the Po river (~140 km). We refer to extended (~16 years of observations) ERS and ENVISAT altimetry products (i.e. River and Lake Hydrology data, RLH) to investigate the effect of (i) record length (i.e. number of satellite measurements at a given satellite track) and (ii) data uncertainty (i.e. altimetry measurements errors) on the calibration of the quasi‐2D model. We first present an assessment of ERS and ENVISAT altimetry errors and then perform the investigations in a Monte Carlo framework by generating datasets of synthetic altimetry products. The results of our analysis further emphasize the suitability of satellite data for the calibration of hydraulic models, providing also a quantitative assessment of the effect of the uncertainty of altimetry products. The analysis highlights the higher accuracy of ENVISAT data, which ensures a stable calibration with ~1.5 years of data (Mean Absolute Error, MAE, lower than 0.4 m, ~0.2 m of which results directly from the uncertainty of ENVISAT data). ERS‐based calibrations become stable with longer series (~3.5–5 years of data), and the negative effect of uncertainty in ERS data is higher (i.e. MAE of 0.6–0.9 m, of which 0.4–0.6 m results from the uncertainty of ERS measurements). Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A fast simplified model for predicting river flood inundation probabilities in poorly gauged areas

The capability of a simple kinematic‐storage model (KSM) is analysed to be used as a tool for a Decision Support System for the evaluation of probability inundation maps in near real time in poorly gauged areas. KSM simulates the floodplain as a storage and assumes no exchange of momentum with the channel. For the in‐bank flow, the storage is modified through a coefficient for taking the variations of channel cross sections into account. The generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation approach is used for addressing the probability flood maps along with their associated uncertainties. The model is tested on two river reaches along the Tiber River in Central Italy where observed inundation maps are available for two recent flood events. Despite the inherent uncertainties present in the input data and in the model structure, the results show that the model reproduces reasonably well, in terms of both precision and accuracy, the observed inundated areas. Tests were performed at different digital elevation model resolutions, showing a small effect of the geometry on the maximum performance obtained. The very low computational times, the parsimony of the model and its low sensitivity to the quality of the geometry representation of the channel and the floodplain makes KSM very appealing for flood forecasting and early warning system applications in poorly gauged and inaccessible areas. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of daily rainfall concentration in New Zealand

A higher precipitation concentration, represented by greater percentages of the yearly total precipitation in a few very rainy days, has the potential to impact considerably on water resources. In this paper, an investigation of the spatial and temporal patterns of daily precipitation concentration in New Zealand has been carried out by means of a daily precipitation dataset. Results show a different behavior between North Island, with the most critical rainfall concentration, and South Island, where precipitation concentration values on the eastern side are comparable to those of North Island, while the western side presents the lowest values of precipitation concentration. On a seasonal scale, the spatial gradients for summer and autumn are similar to the annual one. The application of the Mann–Kendall test shows a general negative trend detected in the eastern part of North Island, in particular in winter and autumn, and a west/east difference trend in South Island, in particular in winter and summer.     

Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics in the supra‐mediterranean belt of the Nebrodi Mountains (Sicily,Italy)

High‐resolution pollen, macrofossil and charcoal data, combined with accelerator mass spectrometry ¹⁴C dating and multivariate analysis, were used to reconstruct Holocene vegetation and fire dynamics at Urio Quattrocchi, a small lake in the supra‐mediterranean belt in the Nebrodi Mountains of Sicily (Italy). The data suggest that after 10 000 cal a BP increasing moisture availability supported closed forests with deciduous (Quercus cerris, Fagus sylvatica and Fraxinus spp.) and evergreen (Quercus ilex) species. Species‐rich closed forest persisted until 6850 cal a BP, when Neolithic activities caused a forest decline and affected plant diversity. Secondary forest with abundant Ilex aquifolium recovered between 6650 and 6000 cal a BP, indicating moist conditions. From 5000 cal a BP, agriculture and pastoralism led to the currently fragmented landscape with sparse deciduous forests (Quercus cerris). The study suggests that evergreen broadleaved species were more important at elevations above 1000 m a.s.l. before ca. 5000 cal a BP than subsequently, which might reflect less human impact or warmer‐than‐today climatic conditions between 10 000 and 5000 cal a BP. Despite land use since Neolithic times, deciduous supra‐mediterranean forests were never completely displaced from the Nebrodi Mountains, because of favourable moist conditions that persisted throughout the Holocene. Reconstructed vegetation dynamics document the absence of any pronounced mid‐ or late‐Holocene ‘aridification’ trend at the site, an issue which is controversially debated in Italy and the Mediterranean region. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Analysis of soil moisture dynamics beneath olive trees

Olive cultivation is a widespread land use in Mediterranean climates. The proper implementation of soil and water conservation practices in groves requires detailed knowledge of the governing hydrological processes. In this work topsoil moisture dynamics under wet and dry conditions and across a small catchment was investigated in the inter row (IR) and directly under the olive tree canopies (UC). We do this using a sensor network (11 stations) and a simple bucket model which was calibrated (June, 2011–2012) and validated (June, 2012–2013). During most of the year the normalized soil moisture contents (s) were greater in the IR than under UC, with an average normalized soil moisture difference of 0.12. The difference between UC and IR normalized soil moisture followed a seasonal pattern, reaching a maximum near 0.30 during spring. An analysis of the normalized soil moisture probability density functions (pdfs) was bimodal, showing characteristic dominant wet and dry soil moisture states, with the highest probability densities for the dry state. Overall the spatial variability of soil moisture was lower UC than in the IR. This was a result of the soil moisture buffering capacity of the canopy with respect to rainfall and evaporation, in addition to observed differences in soil properties. Hourly soil moisture data were successfully modelled (R² > 0.85), both UC and in the IR, yet with the inclusion of a simple formulation for canopy interception for the former. The results provide insight into how olive trees change hydrological processes in their neighbourhood. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reply to discussion on “Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses” by F. Bozzano,P. Mazzanti,and S. Moretto

■■■The paper “Discussion to: Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses by T. Carlà, E. Intrieri, F. Di Traglia, T. Nolesini, G. Gigli and N. Casagli” by Bozzano et al. brings forward new considerations on an issue of extreme concern in landslide risk management. To this day, the ability to predict catastrophic landslide failures from slope surface displacements is a problem dictated more by practical constraints rather than by theoretical uncertainties. In this sense, the development of data interpretation practices is crucial. This short reply provides a few further insights with regard to this subject, also in the context of the recently published literature.     

The Calatabiano landslide (southern Italy): preliminary GB-InSAR monitoring data and remote 3D mapping

On 24 October 2015, following a period of heavy rainfall, a landslide occurred in the Calatabiano Municipality (Sicily Island, Southern Italy), causing the rupture of a water pipeline supplying water to the city of Messina. Following this event, approximately 250,000 inhabitants of the city suffered critical water shortages for several days. Consequently, on 6 November 2015, a state of emergency was declared (O.C.D.P. 295/2015) by the National Italian Department of Civil Protection (DPC). During the emergency management phase, a provisional by-pass, consisting of three 350-m long pipes passing through the landslide area, was constructed to restore water to the city. Furthermore, on 11 November 2015, a landslide remote-sensing monitoring system was installed with the following purposes: (i) analyse the landslide geomorphological and kinematic features in order to assess the residual landslide risk and (ii) support the early warning procedures needed to ensure the safety of the personnel involved in the by-pass construction and the landslide stabilization works. The monitoring system was based on the combined use of Ground-Based Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (GB-InSAR) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS). In this work, the preliminary results of the monitoring activities and a remote 3D map of the landslide area are presented.     

Guidelines on the use of inverse velocity method as a tool for setting alarm thresholds and forecasting landslides and structure collapses

Predicting the time of failure is a topic of major concern in the field of geological risk management. Several approaches, based on the analysis of displacement monitoring data, have been proposed in recent years to deal with the issue. Among these, the inverse velocity method surely demonstrated its effectiveness in anticipating the time of collapse of rock slopes displaying accelerating trends of deformation rate. However, inferring suitable linear trend lines and deducing reliable failure predictions from inverse velocity plots are processes that may be hampered by the noise present in the measurements; data smoothing is therefore a very important phase of inverse velocity analyses. In this study, different filters are tested on velocity time series from four case studies of geomechanical failure in order to improve, in retrospect, the reliability of failure predictions: Specifically, three major landslides and the collapse of an historical city wall in Italy have been examined. The effects of noise on the interpretation of inverse velocity graphs are also assessed. General guidelines to conveniently perform data smoothing, in relation to the specific characteristics of the acceleration phase, are deduced. Finally, with the aim of improving the practical use of the method and supporting the definition of emergency response plans, some standard procedures to automatically setup failure alarm levels are proposed. The thresholds which separate the alarm levels would be established without needing a long period of neither reference historical data nor calibration on past failure events.