Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards*

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis). * The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Estimating impacts of changed land use on recharge: review of modelling and other approaches appropriate for management of dryland salinity

To manage dryland salinity, one needs to know how changed land use affects groundwater recharge. Few techniques are available for comparing 'deep drainage' under different land uses. Soil-tracer methods, although good for replication and remote field sites, are subject to spatial variability. Lysimeters are good for comparisons but are difficult for drier areas and sloping land. Agronomic water-balance studies, where appropriate soil-water measurements exist, may be used with a soil-vegetation model to estimate long-term deep drainage. Complex models are required to analyze specific land-use differences, such as perenniality and root and leaf area dynamics, but models require intensive and extensive data for calibration. This approach is time-consuming, labour-intensive, and difficult in remote locations. Because of the one-dimensionality of most soil-vegetation models and the small fraction of the total water balance that is deep drainage, little success has occurred in extrapolating beyond the research plot, or to spatially heterogeneous systems such as alley farming. Some 'top-down' modelling and landscape disaggregation approaches have been partially successful in making catchment or regional-scale predictions. The direction for further work depends on the level of recharge reduction that is required for most groundwater systems and difficulties that it imposes. Electronic Publication     

Annual cycle of fCO2 under sea-ice and in open water in Prydz Bay, East Antarctica

The annual cycle of dissolved nutrients and the fugacity of CO₂ (fCO₂), calculated from the concentration of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and pH, was studied over a 14-month long period (December 1993 to February 1995) at a site in Prydz Bay near Davis Station, Vestfold Hills, East Antarctica. Significant spring decreases in fCO₂ began under the sea-ice in mid-October, when both water column and sea-ice algal activity resulted in the removal of nutrients and DIC and increased pH. Minimum fCO₂ (<100 μatm) and lowest nutrient and DIC concentrations occurred in December and January. The low summer fCO₂ values were clearly the result of biological activity. The seasonal depletion of dissolved nitrate reached 85% in mid-summer when chlorophyll-a concentrations exceeded 15 mg m⁻³. Oceanic uptake of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, calculated from the fugacity difference and daily wind speeds, averaged more than 30 mmol m⁻² day⁻¹ during the summer ice-free period. This exchange replaced approximately half of the DIC consumed by biological activity. Apparent nutrient utilisation ratios (C/N/P) were close to Redfield values. In autumn fCO₂ began to rise, continuing slowly well into winter, and reaching a maximum close to modern atmospheric values between July and September. This increase can be attributed to a combination of local remineralisation of organic carbon in the water column and the steady increase in the mixing depth of the water column. At first glance, this suggests that air–sea equilibration occurred in winter despite the sea-ice cover, perhaps by horizontal circulation from regions outside the pack ice, or through openings in the ice. However, the persistent 15 to 20% undersaturation of dissolved oxygen throughout the winter suggests an alternate explanation. The late winter fCO₂ level may represent a characteristic established by global circulation, so that as a result of increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentrations, these Antarctic waters are in transition from being a winter-time source of CO₂ to the atmosphere to becoming a sink. Our fCO₂ observations emphasize the need to address seasonal variations in assessing Antarctic contributions to the oceanic control of atmospheric CO₂.     

Study of Water Relative Permeability in Fractures Using Well Tests and Radon: Gas Bubbles Effect

Few published data are available for two-phase flow in fractures from field studies. All measurements of relative permeability reported in the literature were done in laboratory-scale. The in situ water saturations are normally not known for multiphase flow in natural fractures; therefore, the direct measurements of relative permeability are difficult in field-scale. With the help of a case study before and after the 2008 M_w 5.4 Antung earthquake, groundwater radon was used as a tracer to determine the gas and water saturations in a small naturally fractured aquifer. Well tests were also conducted to estimate aquifer transmissivity before and after the 2008 Antung earthquake. Anomalous declines in both groundwater radon concentration and transmissivity were observed precursory to the 2008 Antung earthquake. Both declines are two precursory phenomena having a common effect of gas bubbles. Using the data from well tests and radon tracer, one data point of water relative permeability can be obtained for in situ fractures. This data point reveals strong phase interference between water and gas bubbles for multiphase flow in natural fractures. Both the data of well tests and radon tracer are essential to gain an improved understanding of mass transfer behavior of groundwater-dissolved gases between water and gas phases.     

Securing the climate benefits of stable forests

Stable forests – those not already significantly disturbed nor facing predictable near-future risks of anthropogenic disturbance – may play a large role in the climate solution, due to their carbon sequestration and storage capabilities. Their importance is recognized by the Paris Agreement, but stable forests have received comparatively little attention through existing forest protection mechanisms and finance. Instead, emphasis has been placed on targeting locations where deforestation and forest degradation are happening actively. Yet stopping deforestation and forest degradation does not guarantee durable success, especially outside the geographic scope of targeted efforts. As a result, today’s stable forests may be at risk without additional efforts to secure their long-term conservation.

We synthesize the gaps in existing policy efforts that could address the climate-related benefits derived from stable forests, noting several barriers to action, such as uncertainty around the level of climate services that stable forests provide and difficulties describing the real level of threat posed. We argue that resource and finance allocation for stable forests should be incorporated into countries’ and donors’ comprehensive portfolios aimed at tackling deforestation and forest degradation as well as resulting emissions. A holistic and forward-looking approach will be particularly important, given that success in tackling deforestation and forest degradation where it is currently happening will need to be sustained in the long term.

Key policy insights

• Climate policies, finance, and implementation have tended to focus on areas of recent forest loss and near-term threats of anthropogenic disturbance, resulting in an imbalance of effort that fails to adequately address stable forests.

• In some contexts, policy measuresintended to secure the climate-related benefits of stable forests have competed poorly against more urgent threats. Policymakers and finance mechanisms should view stable forests as a complementary element within a holistic, long-term approach to resource management.

• International mechanisms and national frameworks should be adjusted and resourced to promote the long-term sustainability and permanence of stable forests.

• Beyond additional resources, the climate benefits of stable forests may be best secured by pro-actively designing implementing policies that recognize the rights and interests of stakeholders who are affected by land management decisions.

     

Automated calibration of advanced soil constitutive models. Part I: hypoplastic sand

Acta Geotechnica - This paper discusses an automated deterministic approach to parameters calibration of the hypoplastic model for sand. The calibration is performed on results from basic...     

Diatom transfer-functions for quantifying past air temperature, pH and total organic carbon concentration from lakes in northern Sweden

The relationships between diatoms (Bacillariophyceae) in surface sediments of lakes and summer air temperature, pH and total organic carbon concentration (TOC) were explored along a steep climatic gradient in northern Sweden to provide a tool to infer past climate conditions from sediment cores. The study sites are in an area with low human impact and range from boreal forest to alpine tundra. Canonical correspondence analysis (CCA) constrained to mean July air temperature and pH clearly showed that diatom community composition was different between lakes situated in conifer-, mountain birch- and alpine-vegetation zones. As a consequence, diatoms and multivariate ordination methods can be used to infer past changes in treeline position and dominant forest type. Quantitative inference models were developed to estimate mean July air temperature, pH and TOC from sedimentary diatom assemblages using weighted averaging (WA) and weighted averaging partial least squares (WA-PLS) regression. Relationships between diatoms and mean July air temperature were independent of lake-water pH, TOC, alkalinity and maximum depth. The results demonstrated that diatoms in lake sediments can provide useful and independent quantitative information for estimating past changes in mean July air temperature (R² _jack = 0.62, RMSEP = 0.86 °C; R² and root mean squared error of prediction (RMSEP) based on jack-knifing), pH (R² _jack = 0.61, RMSEP = 0.30) and TOC (R² _jack = 0.49, RMSEP = 1.33 mg l^-1). The paper focuses mainly on the relationship between diatom community composition and mean July air temperature, but the relationships to pH and TOC are also discussed.     

Kelvin and Faraday kimberlite emplacement geometries and implications for subterranean magmatic processes

The Kennady North Project kimberlites (Northwest Territories of Canada) comprises multiple shallow dipping dykes and several volcaniclastic bodies that have an unusual shallow plunging geometry and complex “pipe” shapes that are termed chonoliths. The detailed exploration of the entire system provides exceptional evidence for subterranean volcanic conduit growth processes. The possible processes leading to the development of the kimberlite bodies are discussed, with emphasis on the importance of the subsurface intrusive system geometry and the local stress tensor. Emplacement into a locally compressive stress regime (i.e. σ₁ and σ₂ inclined at a low angle to surface) could change the kimberlite emplacement geometries to that observed at Kennady North. Models are proposed for the development of the chonoliths, to emphasize aspects of the growth of kimberlite systems that are not well understood. The conclusions challenge or evolve current emplacement models and should influence kimberlite exploration and resource definition assumptions.

     

LBT: Its Instrumentation and Key Science Projects

B25 The site testing for the Thirty Meter Telescope and its potential role in developing the shortterm forecasting of observing conditions B34 LUCIFER: a NIR Spectrograph and Imager for the LBT B41 PEPSI: the Potsdam Echelle Polarimetric and Spectroscopic Instrument for the Large Binocular Telescope B44 LUCIFER: High Redshift Science Cases B49 Feedback in galaxy cores: a LBT Key Science Project proposal B52 SERPIL/LIINUS: a design study for a Near‐Infrared Interferometric Integral Field Spectrometer for the LBT B64 The Construction of the Large Binocular Telescope B73 Operating the LUCIFER Instrument B85 M92 – a crucial testbed for atomic diffusion and mixing in stars B142 The Large Binocular Camera at LBT B148 LUCIFER and its Exposure‐Time‐Calculator B196 The Multi‐Object Double Spectrograph and Nulling Interferometer for the Large Binocular Telescope B199 The Laser Guide Star Facility for the LBT B231 The PEPSI “deep spectrum” project B236 Zeeman‐Doppler imaging from Stokes IQUV line profiles B257 D3Dnet: getting ready for MUSE, a 2nd Generation Instrument for the VLT