A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Preliminary Interlaboratory Trial for ISO/DIS 12010: Determination of Short Chain Polychlorinated Alkanes (SCCP) in Water

A first preliminary interlaboratory trial was planned to prepare ISO/DIS 12010: Water quality – determination of short chain polychlorinated alkanes (SCCP) in water – method using GC/MS and electron capture negative ionisation (ECNI). The task was to determine the sum of short chain polychlorinated n‐alkanes with carbon chain lengths of C₁₀–C₁₃ and a chlorine content between 49 and 67% in water by GC‐ECNI‐MS and quantification by multiple linear regression described in ISO/DIS 12010 as the compulsory method. Distributed samples were obtained from a real water extract spiked with a target concentration of 0.4 µg/mL sum of SCCP, i.e. the environmental quality target level according to the Water Framework Directive. The interlaboratory trial included the calibration, a column chromatographic clean up, a concentration step and an integration of chromatographic unresolved humps as well as the quantification with multiple linear regression. Reproducibility standard deviations between 21.5 and 22.9% were achieved by 17 participating laboratories from four countries. The method outlined no significant difference of the results between the standard solution and a real water matrix extract. On the basis of this succeeded preliminary interlaboratory trial the final interlaboratory trial for validation of ISO 12010 was prepared in autumn 2010.     

A Mass Balance Approach to Resolving LNAPL Stability

This article explores the hypothesis that natural losses of light nonaqueous phase liquids (LNAPLs) through dissolution and evaporation can control the overall extent of LNAPL bodies and LNAPL fluxes observed within LNAPL bodies. First, a proof‐of‐concept sand tank experiment is presented. An LNAPL (methyl tert‐butyl ether) was injected into a sand tank at five constant injection rates that were increased stepwise. Initially, for each injection rate the LNAPL bodies expanded quickly. With time the rate of expansion of the LNAPL bodies slowed and at extended times the extent of the LNAPL became constant. Attainment of a stable LNAPL extent is attributed to rates of LNAPL addition being equal to rates of LNAPL losses through dissolution and evaporation. Secondly, analytical solutions are developed to extrapolate the processes observed in the proof‐of‐concept experiment to dimensions and time frames that are consistent with field‐scale LNAPL bodies. Three LNAPL body geometries that are representative of common field conditions are considered including one‐dimensional, circular, and oblong shapes. Using idealized conditions, the solutions describe volumetric LNAPL fluxes as a function of position in LNAPL bodies and the overall extent of LNAPL bodies as a function of time. Results from both the proof‐of‐concept experiment and the mathematical developments illustrate that natural losses of LNAPL can play an important role in governing LNAPL fluxes within LNAPL bodies and the overall extent of LNAPL bodies.     

Managing land-use effects on Northland dune lakes: lessons from the past

The Northland region of New Zealand includes numerous high-value, macrophyte-dominated dune lakes. Recent water policy reforms offer limited guidance on managing for aquatic macrophytes. In addition, dune lake histories are poorly known as regular monitoring dates to 2005 AD. Here, ca. 4000 years of lake functional behaviour is reconstructed from sedimentary archives in two Northland dune lakes (Humuhumu and Rotokawau). Results demonstrated that macrophyte dominance is sensitive to catchment erosion and hydrological drawdown. Degradation of macrophyte communities occurred in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries, earlier at Lake Humuhumu than Lake Rotokawau (post-1880 AD and post-1930 AD, respectively). In both lakes, increased erosional influx reduced macrophyte productivity, before later increases to wider trophic state (post-1970 AD). Lake-level decline is linked to increased nutrient loading at Lake Rotokawau but less so, Lake Humuhumu which is more strongly groundwater-fed. In Northland dune lakes, water-level reduction and erosional influx from land use have driven macrophyte degradation.     

Spatiotemporal aspects of silica buffering in restored tidal marshes

Losses of pelagic diatom production resulting from silica limitation have not only been blamed for toxic algal blooms, but for the reduction in ability of coastal food webs to support higher trophic levels. Recent research has shown the importance of advective seepage water fluxes of dissolved silica (DSi) from freshwater marshes to pelagic waters during moments of riverine Si-limitation. In this study, we investigated the potential impact of recently installed new tidal areas along the Schelde estuary, located in former polder areas and characterized by so-called controlled reduced tidal regimes (CRT). Nine mass-balance studies were conducted in a newly constructed CRT in the freshwater Schelde estuary. During complete tidal cycles both DSi and amorphous silica (ASi) concentrations were monitored at the entrance culverts and in different habitats in the marsh. A swift DSi-delivery capacity was observed despite the shifted spatiotemporal frame of exchange processes compared to reference marshes. As silica-accumulating vegetation is not yet present, and difference with reference marshes’ deliveries is surprisingly small, we indicate diatomaceous debris and phytoliths to be the main silica source. Although further research is necessary on the driving forces of the different processes involved, restoration of former agricultural areas under CRT-regime provide the potential to buffer silica in the estuary.     

Assessing the hydrological and geomorphic behaviour of a landscape evolution model within a limits-of-acceptability uncertainty analysis framework

Landscape evolution models (LEMs) have the capability to characterize key aspects of geomorphological and hydrological processes. However, their usefulness is hindered by model equifinality and paucity of available calibration data. Estimating uncertainty in the parameter space and resultant model predictions is rarely achieved as this is computationally intensive and the uncertainties inherent in the observed data are large. Therefore, a limits-of-acceptability (LoA) uncertainty analysis approach was adopted in this study to assess the value of uncertain hydrological and geomorphic data. These were used to constrain simulations of catchment responses and to explore the parameter uncertainty in model predictions. We applied this approach to the River Derwent and Cocker catchments in the UK using a LEM CAESAR-Lisflood. Results show that the model was generally able to produce behavioural simulations within the uncertainty limits of the streamflow. Reliability metrics ranged from 24.4% to 41.2% and captured the high-magnitude low-frequency sediment events. Since different sets of behavioural simulations were found across different parts of the catchment, evaluating LEM performance, in quantifying and assessing both at-a-point behaviour and spatial catchment response, remains a challenge. Our results show that evaluating LEMs within uncertainty analyses framework while taking into account the varying quality of different observations constrains behavioural simulations and parameter distributions and is a step towards a full-ensemble uncertainty evaluation of such models. We believe that this approach will have benefits for reflecting uncertainties in flooding events where channel morphological changes are occurring and various diverse (and yet often sparse) data have been collected over such events.     

Giant ancient landslide in the Alma water gap (Crimean Mountains,Ukraine): notes to the predisposition,structure, and chronology

Large-scale ancient landslides of the area of more than 5 km² and volume exceeding 200 × 10⁶ m³ are characteristic features of the valleys incised in the northern periphery of the Crimean Mountains (Ukraine). The largely affected area is located in the outermost cuesta range of the Crimean Mountains which consists of rigid Sarmatian limestones overlying weak Middle Miocene and Upper Palaeogene deposits. A giant landslide arose in the Alma water gap as a reflection of several coincident preparatory factors such as suitable bedrock stratification, smectite-rich bedrock exposed to swelling activity, presence of faults parallel to the valley trend, and river capture event which preceded the landslide event. The occurrence of such ancient megaslides is particularly interesting in the area which is characterized by low precipitation (<500 mm/year) and weak contemporary seismicity. It probably reflects a more dynamic environment in humid phases of the Holocene; however, seismic triggering along the Mesozoic suture zone cannot be rejected. Compressional features such as gravitational folds in the central and distal parts of the landslide, which probably correlate with the whole landslide genesis or its significant reactivation, arose, according to the radiocarbon dating, during the Holocene climatic optimum in the Atlantic period. The slope deformation has been relatively quiescent since that time, except minor historic reactivization which took place in the frontal part of the landslide. We suppose that the studied landslide could be classified as a transitional type of slope deformation with some signs of spreading and translational block slides.     

Mineralogy and chemical composition of the clay fraction of Neogene shales from the Surma Group in the Bengal basin,Bangladesh

Mineralogical and chemical investigations (<2μm clay separates) of shale samples from the Neogene-age Surma Group obtained from four wells (Habiganj-11, Shahbazpur-1, Titas-11, Titas-15) in the Bengal basin, Bangladesh, were carried out in order to reveal the clay mineral composition as reservoir exploration and exploitation requires a good understanding of the clay minerals. The samples were analyzed by X-ray diffraction (XRD), scanning electron microscope (SEM) and X-Ray fluorescence spectrometry (XRF). Mineralogically, the sub-surface Surma Group shales comprise predominantly quartz, plagioclase, illite, chlorite, kaolinite, with lesser amounts of K-feldspar, dolomite and smectite, and minor to trace amounts of calcite, siderite and pyrite. The chemical composition of the <2 μm clay separates also suggests an illite and chlorite-rich composition. With increasing burial depth, the Surma Group shales are enriched in illite. The gradual decreasing of the smectite clays with depth and ultimate disappearance at greater depths (≥ 3000 m) may have been responsible for the presence of the diagenetic illite. Based on the mineralogical composition it is most likely that the illite-chlorite associations together with quartz and feldspar were predominantly detrital in origin and thus reflect the presence of a rapidly-rising source terrain not subjected to intense weathering.     

Population Structure of the SW Atlantic Estuarine Crab Neohelice granulata Throughout Its Range: a Genetic and Morphometric Study

Phylogeographic patterns of the SW Atlantic estuarine crab Neohelice granulata were examined using mitochondrial DNA cytochrome oxidase I sequences and analyzed together with morphometric data. Specimens were sampled during a 4-year period (2001?C2004) from 11 localities encompassing the full distributional range of this species along the SW Atlantic (22°57?? S to 42°25?? S). DNA sequences were obtained from 69 individuals belonging to seven localities, and morphometric variation in 12 continuous characters was analyzed for 646 crabs from ten localities. Strong genetic differentiation, consistent with a pattern of isolation-by-distance, was detected among all localities indicating that gene flow occurs mainly between neighboring populations. Analyses of molecular variance showed genetic subdivision between the southern (Argentina) and the northern (Brazil) sites, suggesting restricted gene flow at a regional scale. The genetic structure of this species could be divided into two distinct groups due to a limited gene flow between southern and northern regions as a consequence of larval dispersal patterns. Coastal currents in the vicinity of the Rio de la Plata likely act as a barrier to dispersal within the species range. Moreover, genetic data indicate that populations of N. granulata might have undergone a northward demographic expansion since the late Pleistocene. The morphometric analysis showed no geographical pattern of morphological differentiation, although there were differences among sampling sites.