Market access,population density,and socioeconomic development explain diversity and functional group biomass of coral reef fish assemblages

There is overwhelming evidence that many local-scale human activities (e.g. fishing) have a deleterious effect on coral reef fish assemblages. Our understanding of how broad social phenomena (e.g. socioeconomic development) affect the diversity and function of coral reef fish assemblages however, is still poor. Here, we use structural equation models to reveal how human population density, socioeconomic development, and market access affect fishing pressure and coral cover to, in turn, explain the diversity and biomass of key functional groups of reef fish assemblages within Solomon Islands. Fishing pressure is predominantly driven by both market access and local population density, and has a clear negative effect on the diversity and function of coral reef fishes. The strong positive effect of market access on fishing pressure makes clear the importance of understanding social-ecological linkages in the context of increasingly connected societies. This study highlights the need to address broad social phenomena rather than focusing on proximate threats such as fishing pressure, to ensure the continued flow of coral reef goods and services in this time of rapid global social and environmental change.     

Changing patterns of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation and implications of climatic control on coal occurrence

Improved regional and interregional stratigraphic correlations of Pennsylvanian strata permit comparisons of vegetational changes in Euramerican coal swamps. The coal-swamp vegetation is known directly from in situ coal-ball peat deposits from more than 65 coals in the United States and Europe. Interpretations of coal-swamp floras on the basis of coal-ball peat studies are extended to broader regional and stratigraphic patterns by use of coal palynology. Objectives of the quantitative analyses of the vegetation in relation to coal are to determine the botanical constituents at the peat stage and their environmental implications for plant growth and peat accumulation. Morphological and paleoecological analyses provide a basis for deducing freshwater regimes of coal swamps.Changes in composition of Pennsylvanian coal-swamp vegetation are quire similar from one paralic coal region to another and show synchrony that is attributable to climate. Paleobotany and paleogeography of the Euramerican province indicate a moist tropical paleoclimate. Rainfall, runoff and evapotranspiration were the variable climatic controls in the distribution of coal-swamp vegetation, peat accumulation and coal resources. In relative terms of climatic wetness the Pennsylvanian Period is divisible into five intervals, which include two relatively drier intervals that developed during the Lower-Middle and Middle-Upper Pennsylvanian transitions. The climate during Early Pennsylvanian time was moderately wet and the median in moisture availability. Early Middle Pennsylvanian was drier, probably seasonally dry-wet; late Middle Pennsylvanian was the wettest in the Midcontinent; early Late Pennsylvanian was the driest; and late Late Pennsylvanian was probably the wettest in the Dunkard Basin. The five climatic intervals represent a general means of dividing coal resources within each region into groups with similar botanical constituents and environments of peat accumulation. Regional differences in basinal geology and climate were significant variables, but the synchronous control of paleoclimate was of primary importance.     

Towards the detection and attribution of an anthropogenic effect on climate

It has been hypothesized recently that regional-scale cooling caused by anthropogenic sulfate aerosols may be partially obscuring a warming signal associated with changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Here we use results from model experiments in which sulfate and carbon dioxide have been varied individually and in combination in order to test this hypothesis. We use centered [R (t)] and uncentered [C (t)] pattern similarity statistics to compare observed time-evolving surface temperature change patterns with the model-predicted equilibrium signal patterns. We show that in most cases, the C (t) statistic reduces to a measure of observed global-mean temperature changes, and is of limited use in attributing observed climate changes to a specific causal mechanism. We therefore focus on R (t), which is a more useful statistic for discriminating between forcing mechanisms with different pattern signatures but similar rates of global mean change. Our results indicate that over the last 50 years, the summer (JJA) and fall (SON) observed patterns of near-surface temperature change show increasing similarity to the model-simulated response to combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ forcing. At least some of this increasing spatial congruence occurs in areas where the real world has cooled. To assess the significance of the most recent trends in R (t) and C (t), we use data from multi-century control integrations performed with two different coupled atmosphere-ocean models, which provide information on the statistical behavior of 'unforced' trends in the pattern correlation statistics. For the combined sulfate aerosol/CO₂ experiment, the 50-year R (t) trends for the JJA and SON signals are highly significant. Results are robust in that they do not depend on the choice of control run used to estimate natural variability noise properties. The R (t) trends for the CO₂-only signal are not significant in any season. C (t) trends for signals from both the CO₂-only and combined forcing experiments are highly significant in all seasons and for all trend lengths (except for trends over the last 10 years), indicating large global-mean changes relative to the two natural variability estimates used here. The caveats regarding the signals and natural variability noise which form the basis of this study are numerous. Nevertheless, we have provided first evidence that both the largest-scale (global-mean) and smaller-scale (spatial anomalies about the global mean) components of a combined CO₂/anthropogenic sulfate aerosol signal are identifiable in the observed near-surface air temperature data. If the coupled-model noise estimates used here are realistic, we can be highly confident that the anthropogenic signal that we have identified is distinctly different from internally generated natural variability noise. The fact that we have been able to detect the detailed spatial signature in response to combined CO₂ and sulfate aerosol forcing, but not in response to CO₂ forcing alone, suggests that some of the regional-scale background noise (against which we were trying to detect a CO₂-only signal) is in fact part of the signal of a sulfate aerosol effect on climate. The large effect of sulfate aerosols found in this study demonstrates the importance of their inclusion in experiments designed to simulate past and future climate change. Received: 10 November 1994 / Accepted: 19 July 1995     

Dissolution of secondary copper sulphides using complex-forming agents (EDTA,EDA). Part II: Chalcocite dissolution in EDTA and EDA

This work is immediate continuation of Part I, using an identical method and evaluation for kinetic studies. The systems chalcocite-ethylene diamine tetra-acetic acid and chalcocite-ethylene diamine were studied. It was necessary to refine the geometrical model method for chalcocite in order to establish dissolution kinetics of polydispersions. This work confirms that chalcocite leaching proceeds through covellite even in the medium of complex-forming agents and kinetic equations for both leaching stages were evaluated with an attempt at physical interpretation.     

Embedding reach-scale fluvial dynamics within the CAESAR cellular automaton landscape evolution model

We introduce a new computational model designed to simulate and investigate reach-scale alluvial dynamics within a landscape evolution model. The model is based on the cellular automaton concept, whereby the continued iteration of a series of local process ‘rules’ governs the behaviour of the entire system. The model is a modified version of the CAESAR landscape evolution model, which applies a suite of physically based rules to simulate the entrainment, transport and deposition of sediments. The CAESAR model has been altered to improve the representation of hydraulic and geomorphic processes in an alluvial environment. In-channel and overbank flow, sediment entrainment and deposition, suspended load and bed load transport, lateral erosion and bank failure have all been represented as local cellular automaton rules. Although these rules are relatively simple and straightforward, their combined and repeatedly iterated effect is such that complex, non-linear geomorphological response can be simulated within the model. Examples of such larger-scale, emergent responses include channel incision and aggradation, terrace formation, channel migration and river meandering, formation of meander cutoffs, and transitions between braided and single-thread channel patterns. In the current study, the model is illustrated on a reach of the River Teifi, near Lampeter, Wales, UK.     

Certainty, uncertainty, and the spatiality of disease: a West Nile Virus example

The problem is not uncertainty—proposed here as an inevitable condition—but the chimera of certainty asserted by most contemporary researchers. Problems of data definition, collection, and their use are reviewed in terms of spatial epidemiology and health data with examples drawn from several areas of contemporary health research. The argument is that preconceptions limit data modeled in a manner assuming its completeness. The result, as the West Nile Virus example seeks to demonstrate, may obscure other patterns and limit avenues of research.     

A New Lichenometric Dating Curve For Southeast Iceland.

This paper presents a new lichenometric dating curve for southeast Iceland. The temporal framework for the curve is based on reliably dated surfaces covering the last 270 years, making it the best constrained study of this nature conducted in Iceland. The growth of lichen species within Rhizocarpon Section Rhizocarpon is non-linear over time, with larger (older) thalli apparently growing more slowly. The linear 'growth' curves derived previously by former authors working in Iceland represent only part of a curve which has an overall exponential form. Reasons for the non-linearity of the new dating curve are probably physiological, although climatic change over the last three centuries cannot be ruled out. Use of linear 'growth' curves in Iceland is problematic over time-spans of more than c . 80 years. Pre-20th century moraines dated using a constant, linear relationship between lichen size and age are probably older than previously believed. Those moraines lichenometrically 'dated' to the second half of the 19th century in Iceland may actually pre-date this time by several decades (30–100 years), thus throwing doubt on the exact timing of maximum glaciation during the 'Little Ice Age'.