Evaluation of coseismic landslide hazard on the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway,South Island,New Zealand

Coseismic landsliding presents a major hazard to infrastructure in mountains during large earthquakes. This is particularly true for road networks, as historically coseismic landsliding has resulted in road losses larger than those due to ground shaking. Assessing the exposure of current and planned highway links to coseismic landsliding for future earthquake scenarios is therefore vital for disaster risk reduction. This study presents a method to evaluate the exposure of critical infrastructure to landsliding from scenario earthquakes from an underlying quantitative landslide hazard assessment. The method is applied to a proposed new highway link in South Island, New Zealand, for a scenario Alpine Fault earthquake and compared to the current network. Exposure (the likelihood of a network being affected by one or more landslides) is evaluated from a regional-scale coseismic landslide hazard model and assessed on a relative basis from 0 to 1. The results show that the proposed Haast-Hollyford Highway (HHH) would be highly exposed to coseismic landsliding with at least 30–40?km likely to be badly affected (the Simonin Pass route being the worse affected of the two routes). In the current South Island State Highway network, the HHH would be the link most exposed to landsliding and would increase the total network exposure by 50–70% despite increasing the total road length by just 3%. The present work is intended to provide an effective method to assess coseismic landslide hazard of infrastructure in mountains with seismic hazard, and potentially identify mitigation options and critical network segments.     

Tidal Marsh Restoration Design Affects Feedbacks Between Inundation and Elevation Change

Tidal marsh (re)creation on formerly embanked land is increasingly executed along estuaries and coasts in Europe and the USA, either by restoring complete or by reduced tidal exchange. Ecosystem functioning and services are largely affected by the hydro-geomorphologic development of these areas. For natural marshes, the latter is known to be steered by feedbacks between tidal inundation and sediment accretion, allowing marshes to reach and maintain an equilibrium elevation relative to the mean sea level. However, for marsh restoration sites, these feedbacks may be disturbed depending on the restoration design. This was investigated by comparing the inundation-elevation change feedbacks in a natural versus restoration site with reduced tidal exchange in the Scheldt estuary (Belgium). This study analyzes long-term (9 years) datasets on elevation change and tidal inundation properties to disentangle the different mechanisms behind this elevation-inundation feedback. Moreover, subsequent changes in sediment properties that may affect this feedback were explored. In the restoration area with reduced tidal exchange, we found a different elevation-inundation feedback than on natural marshes, which is a positive feedback on initially high sites (i.e., sediment accretion leads to increasing inundation, hence causing accelerating sediment accretion rates) and a gradual silting up of the whole area. Furthermore, there is evidence for the presence of a relict consolidated sediment layer. Consequently, shallow subsidence is less likely to occur. Although short-term ecological development of the tidal marsh was not impeded, long-term habitat development may be affected by the differences in hydro-geomorphological interactions. An increase of inundation frequency on the initially high sites may cause inhibition of habitat succession or even reversed succession. Over time, the climax state of the restoration area may be different compared to natural marshes. Moreover, sediment-related ecosystem services, such as nutrient and carbon burial, may be positively influenced because of continuing sedimentation, although flood water storage potential will decrease with increasing elevation. Depending on the restoration goals, ecosystem trajectories and delivery of ecosystem services can be controlled by adaptive management of the tidal volume entering the restoration area.     

Calibration of cyclic constitutive models by oscillating functions

Most structures are subjected to more cyclic loads during their life time than static loads. These cyclic action could be a result of either natural or man-made activities and may lead to soil failure. In order to understand the response of the foundation and its interaction with these complex cyclic loadings, various researchers have over the years developed different constitutive models. Although a lot of research is being carried out on these relatively new models, little or no details exist in literature about the model-based identification of the cyclic constitutive parameters which to a large extent govern the quality of the model output. This could be attributed to the difficulties and complexities of the inverse modeling of such complex phenomena. A variety of optimisation strategies are available for the solution of the sum of least-squares problems as usually done in the field of model calibration. However, for the back analysis (calibration) of the soil response to oscillatory load functions, this article gives insight into the model calibration challenges and also puts forward a method for the inverse modeling of cyclic loaded foundation response such that high-quality solutions are obtained with minimum computational effort.     

Estimation of commercial diamond grades based on microdiamonds: a case study of the Koidu diamond mine,Sierra Leone

This paper documents the application of a microdiamond-based approach to the estimation of diamond grade in the Pipe 1 kimberlite at the Koidu mine in Sierra Leone. A geological model of Pipe 1 was constructed to represent the distribution and volume of the dominant kimberlite units within the pipe. Bulk samples, along with representative microdiamond samples, were collected from these units at surface and were used to define the ratio between microdiamond stone frequency (+212 μm stones per kilogram) and recoverable macrodiamond grade (+1.2 mm carats per tonne; 1 carat = 0.2 g). These ratios were applied to a comprehensive, spatially representative microdiamond sample dataset and were combined with a spatial model of country-rock xenolith dilution within the pipe to estimate +1.2 mm recoverable grades. The resource estimate was reconciled with subsequent production results in the elevation range 160 to 100 m above sea level. Production results for each of the six 10 m benches covering this elevation range were compared to the estimated average grades for these zones in the pipe. For the five cases where most of the kimberlite mass on a given bench is represented in the production data, the results show a maximum discrepancy of 6% between predicted and reported production grade with no indication of any consistent bias. This indicates that, when supported by a sound geological model and suitable microdiamond and macrodiamond data, the microdiamond-based estimation approach can provide reliable constraints on macrodiamond grade, even in the case of geologically complex bodies such as Koidu Pipe 1.

     

Pattern,style and timing of British–Irish Ice Sheet advance and retreat over the last 45 000 years: evidence from NW Scotland and the adjacent continental shelf

Predicting the future response of ice sheets to climate warming and rising global sea level is important but difficult. This is especially so when fast-flowing glaciers or ice streams, buffered by ice shelves, are grounded on beds below sea level. What happens when these ice shelves are removed? And how do the ice stream and the surrounding ice sheet respond to the abruptly altered boundary conditions? To address these questions and others we present new geological, geomorphological, geophysical and geochronological data from the ice-stream-dominated NW sector of the last British–Irish Ice Sheet (BIIS). The study area covers around 45 000 km² of NW Scotland and the surrounding continental shelf. Alongside seabed geomorphological mapping and Quaternary sediment analysis, we use a suite of over 100 new absolute ages (including cosmogenic-nuclide exposure ages, optically stimulated luminescence ages and radiocarbon dates) collected from onshore and offshore, to build a sector-wide ice-sheet reconstruction combining all available evidence with Bayesian chronosequence modelling. Using this information we present a detailed assessment of ice-sheet advance/retreat history, and the glaciological connections between different areas of the NW BIIS sector, at different times during the last glacial cycle. The results show a highly dynamic, partly marine, partly terrestrial, ice-sheet sector undergoing large size variations in response to sub-millennial-scale climatic (Dansgaard–Oeschger) cycles over the last 45 000 years. Superimposed on these trends we identify internally driven instabilities, operating at higher frequency, conditioned by local topographic factors, tidewater dynamics and glaciological feedbacks during deglaciation. Specifically, our new evidence indicates extensive marine-terminating ice-sheet glaciation of the NW BIIS sector during Greenland Stadials 12 to 9 – prior to the main ‘Late Weichselian’ ice-sheet glaciation. After a period of restricted glaciation, in Greenland Interstadials 8 to 6, we find good evidence for rapid renewed ice-sheet build-up in NW Scotland, with the Minch ice-stream terminus reaching the continental shelf edge in Greenland Stadial 5, perhaps only briefly. Deglaciation of the NW sector took place in numerous stages. Several grounding-zone wedges and moraines on the mid- and inner continental shelf attest to significant stabilizations of the ice-sheet grounding line, or ice margin, during overall retreat in Greenland Stadials 3 and 2, and to the development of ice shelves. NW Lewis was the first substantial present-day land area to deglaciate, in the first half of Greenland Stadial 3 at a time of globally reduced sea-level c. 26 kabp , followed by Cape Wrath at c. 24 kabp. The topographic confinement of the Minch straits probably promoted ice-shelf development in early Greenland Stadial 2, providing the ice stream with additional support and buffering it somewhat from external drivers. However, c. 20–19 kabp , as the grounding-line migrated into shoreward deepening water, coinciding with a marked change in marine geology and bed strength, the ice stream became unstable. We find that, once underway, grounding-line retreat proceeded in an uninterrupted fashion with the rapid loss of fronting ice shelves – first in the west, then the east troughs – before eventual glacier stabilization at fjord mouths in NW Scotland by ~17 kabp. Around the same time, ~19–17 kabp , ice-sheet lobes readvanced into the East Minch – possibly a glaciological response to the marine-instability-triggered loss of adjacent ice stream (and/or ice shelf) support in the Minch trough. An independent ice cap on Lewis also experienced margin oscillations during mid-Greenland Stadial 2, with an ice-accumulation centre in West Lewis existing into the latter part of Heinrich Stadial 1. Final ice-sheet deglaciation of NW mainland Scotland was punctuated by at least one other coherent readvance at c. 15.5 kabp , before significant ice-mass losses thereafter. At the glacial termination, c. 14.5 kabp , glaciers fed outwash sediment to now-abandoned coastal deltas in NW mainland Scotland around the time of global Meltwater Pulse 1A. Overall, this work on the BIIS NW sector reconstructs a highly dynamic ice-sheet oscillating in extent and volume for much of the last 45 000 years. Periods of expansive ice-sheet glaciation dominated by ice-streaming were interspersed with periods of much more restricted ice-cap or tidewater/fjordic glaciation. Finally, this work indicates that the role of ice streams in ice-sheet evolution is complex but mechanistically important throughout the lifetime of an ice sheet – with ice streams contributing to the regulation of ice-sheet health but also to the acceleration of ice-sheet demise via marine ice-sheet instabilities.     

Small-strain behaviour of unsaturated silty clay: experiments and model interpretation

Acta Geotechnica - The experimental data dealing with the so-called small strain stiffness of soils are indispensable in developing and calibrating advanced numerical models. A literature review...     

Market access,population density,and socioeconomic development explain diversity and functional group biomass of coral reef fish assemblages

There is overwhelming evidence that many local-scale human activities (e.g. fishing) have a deleterious effect on coral reef fish assemblages. Our understanding of how broad social phenomena (e.g. socioeconomic development) affect the diversity and function of coral reef fish assemblages however, is still poor. Here, we use structural equation models to reveal how human population density, socioeconomic development, and market access affect fishing pressure and coral cover to, in turn, explain the diversity and biomass of key functional groups of reef fish assemblages within Solomon Islands. Fishing pressure is predominantly driven by both market access and local population density, and has a clear negative effect on the diversity and function of coral reef fishes. The strong positive effect of market access on fishing pressure makes clear the importance of understanding social-ecological linkages in the context of increasingly connected societies. This study highlights the need to address broad social phenomena rather than focusing on proximate threats such as fishing pressure, to ensure the continued flow of coral reef goods and services in this time of rapid global social and environmental change.     

Modelling magnetization processes in single-and multi-domain rock samples using the preisach diagram

Summary The paper presents the results of identifying a model of the Preisach type for haematite grains of the single-domain as well as multi-domain size. Due to the phenomenological conception of the model, the relations between the parameters of the model and actual parameters are very complex, however, impressive accuracy and stability of the modified model indicate the need to resume studies of this problem. The model parameters also confirm the adequate properties of the vibrating-sample magnetometr (VSM) used and developed in our laboratories.