Choosing a Stabilization Target for CO<Subscript>2</Subscript>

The choice of stabilization target for CO₂ concentration depends on the following: what is considered to be dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system; the forcings that might arise from non-CO₂ gases; and the climate sensitivity. These three factors are specified here probabilistically, as probability density functions (pdfs), and combined to produce a pdf for the CO₂ concentration target. There is a probability of 17% that the stabilization target should be less than the present level, and the median target is 536 ppm. The effects of reducing the emissions of non-CO₂ gases and/or implementing adaptation strategies are considered probabilistically and shown to alter these figures significantly.     

Combined tectonic-sediment supply-driven cycles in a Lower Carboniferous deep-marine foreland basin,Moravice Formation,Czech Republic

The Lower Carboniferous Moravian–Silesian Culm Basin (MSCB) represents the easternmost part of the Rhenohercynian system of collision-related, deep-water foreland basins (Culm facies). The Upper Viséan Moravice Formation (MF) of the MSCB shows a distinct cyclic stratigraphic arrangement. Two major asymmetric megacycles bounded by basal sequence boundary, each about 500 to 900 m thick, have been revealed. The megacycles start with 50- to 250-m-thick, basal segments of erosive channels: overbank successions and slope apron deposits interpreted as lowstand turbidite systems. Up-section they pass into hundred metre-thick, fine-grained, low-efficiency turbidite systems. Palaeocurrent data show two prominent directions, basin axis-parallel, SSW–NNE directions, which are abundant in the whole MF, and basin axis-perpendicular to oblique, W–E to NW–SE directions, which tend to be confined to the basal parts of the megacycles or channel-lobe transition systems in their upper parts. Based on the facies characteristics, palaeocurrent data, sandstone composition data and trace-fossil distribution data, we suggest a combined tectonics–sediment supply-driven model for the MF basin fill. Periods of increased tectonic activity resulted in slope oversteepening probably combined with increased rate of lateral W–E sediment supply into the basin, producing the basal sequence boundary and the subsequent lowstand turbidite systems. During subsequent periods of tectonic quiescence, the system was filled mainly from a distant southern point source, producing the thick, low efficiency turbidite systems. Consistently with the previous models, our own sediment composition data indicate a progressively increasing sediment input from high-grade metamorphic and magmatic sources up-section, most probably related to an uplift in the source area and progressive unroofing of its structurally deeper crustal parts. The first occurrence of the Cruziana–Nereites ichnofacies in sand-rich turbidite systems in the youngest parts of the MF (Goel to Gospi Zone), supported by rapidly increasing quartz concentrations in sandstones, is thought to indicate a transition from generally underfilled to generally overfilled phase in evolution of the MSCB basin. This transition may be linked to the onset of Upper Viséan phase of northward basin-fill progradation assumed by previous authors.     

Evaluation of earthquake potential along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea using comparisons of GPS strain and seismotectonic parameters

Seismotectonic parameters including the Gutenberg-Richter b-value and multifractal dimensions D₂ and D₁₅ of seismicity patterns (both spatial and temporal) were compared to GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strains measured in the Marmara Sea region of western Turkey along the Northern Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ). Comparisons of seismotectonic parameters and GPS-derived maximum shear and dilatation strain along the NAFZ in the vicinity of the 1999 M7.4 Izmit earthquake reveal a positive correlation (r = 0.5, p = 0.05) between average dilatation and the Gutenberg-Richter b-value. Significant negative correlation (r = − 0.56, p = 0.03 and r = − 0.56, p = 0.02) was also observed between the spatial fractal dimension D₂ and GPS-derived maximum geodetic and shear strain. This relationship suggests that, as maximum geodetic and shear strains increase, seismicity becomes increasingly clustered.Anomalous interrelationships are observed in the Marmara Sea region prior to the Izmit event along a bend in the NAFZ near the eastern end of the Marmara Sea known as the Northern Boundary Fault (NBF). An asperity is located near the northwest end of the NBF. Along the 50-km length of the NBF, GPS strains become slightly compressive. The correlation between b-value and GPS-derived dilatation suggests that regions in compression have increased probability of larger magnitude rupture. The NBF appears to serve as an impediment to the transfer of strain from east to west along the NAFZ. Recurrence times for large earthquakes along the NBF are larger than in surrounding areas. Temporal clustering of seismicity in the vicinity of the NBF may represent foreshocks of an impending rupture.     

The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, 15–42 ka. Part 1: constructing the time scale

The Greenland Ice Core Chronology 2005, GICC05, is extended back to 42 ka b2k (before 2000 AD), i.e. to the end of Greenland Stadial 11. The chronology is based on independent multi-parameter counting of annual layers using comprehensive high-resolution measurements available from the North Greenland Ice Core Project, NGRIP. These are measurements of visual stratigraphy, conductivity of the solid ice, electrolytical melt water conductivity and the concentration of Na⁺, Ca²⁺, SO₄²⁻, NO₃⁻, NH₄⁺. An uncertainty estimate of the time scale is obtained from identification of ‘uncertain’ annual layers, which are counted as 0.5±0.5 years. The sum of the uncertain annual layers, the so-called maximum counting error of the presented chronology ranges from 4% in the warm interstadial periods to 7% in the cold stadials. The annual accumulation rates of the stadials and interstadials are on average one-third and half of the present day values, respectively, and the onset of the Greenland Interstadials 2, 3, and 8, based on 20 year averaged δ¹⁸O values, are determined as 23,340, 27,780, and 38,220 yr b2k in GICC05.     

用ANUDEM建立水文地貌关系正确DEM的方法研究

针对区域尺度的径流、水土流失定量评价和植被适宜性评价等研究工作需要,利用1∶25万数字地形图和ANUDEM软件,对黄土丘陵区中等分辨率水文地貌关系正确DEM建立方法进行了研究。结果表明该方法所建立的DEM,可以正确反映地貌梁、沟结构及其与流水线网络的关系,对地形描述的能力优于TIN方法建立的DEM;利用ANUDEM和1∶25万地形图插值建立黄土丘陵区DEM的三个主要参数分别为分辨率50或100,计算迭代次数40,第二糙率系数0.8。     

A cellular model of river meandering

River meandering has been successfully modelled using vector based methods, but these can not simulate multiple or braided channels. Conversely, cellular braided river models fail to replicate meandering. This paper describes a new method to simulate river meandering within a cellular model (CAESAR). A novel technique for determining bend radius of curvature on a cell by cell basis is described, that importantly allows regional information on bend curvature to be transferred to local points. This local curvature is then used to drive meandering and lateral erosion through two methods. Key difficulties are identified, including the deposition of material on point bars and cut off development, but the method illustrates how meandering can be integrated within a cellular framework. This demonstrates the potential to produce a single model that can incorporate both meandering and braiding. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.