Coastal flooding in Scotland: towards national-level hazard assessment

This study investigated contributory factors to flood hazard around Scotland. There is a need to develop preliminary assessments of areas potentially vulnerable to flooding for compliance with the European Union Directive on the Assessment and Management of Flood Risks (2007/60/EC). Historical accounts of coastal flood events in Scotland, notably in a storm in January 2005, had shown that estimates of risk based on still water levels required further information to identify sites at which waves and surges could combine. Additionally, it was important to add the effect of future sea-level rise and other drivers from published sources. Analysis of multiple years’ tidal data at seven sites, including estuaries, compared recorded water levels at high-return periods to those derived from a spatially interpolated numerical model contained within a publicly available flood risk map. For gauges with the longest records, increases were seen over time that reflected rises in mean sea level. Exposure to wave energy was computed from prevailing wind strength and direction at 36 stations, related to wave fetch and incident wind direction. Although the highest wave exposure was at open coast locations exposed to the long Atlantic fetch, GIS analysis of coastal rasters identified other areas in or close to estuaries that also had high exposure. Projected sea-level change, when added to the surge and wave analyses, gives a spatially extensive structured variable flood risk assessment for future coastal flood hazard to complement the public flood risk map. Such tools can help fulfil the requirements of the EC Directive and may be a useful approach in other regions with high spatial variability in coastal flood risk related to exposure to waves and wind.     

Prediction of Land Cover Change Using Markov and Cellular Automata Models: Case of Al-Ain,UAE, 1992-2030

The UAE has witnessed rapid urban development and economic growth in recent years. With its ambitious vision to become one of the advanced nations by 2021, planners and policy-makers need to know the most likely direction of future urban development. In this study, remotely sensed imagery coupled with cellular automata models were used to predict land cover in Al Ain, the second largest city in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi. Markov and cellular automata models were used for 1992 and 2006 to predict land cover in 2012. Land Use and Land Cover maps for the study area were derived from 1992, 2006, and 2012 Landsat satellite images (TM, ETM⁺). The models achieved an overall accuracy of approximately 80 %. A Markov model was applied for 2006 and 2012 to predict land cover in 2030. The results conformed to the general trend of the Al Ain Master Plan 2030. This study demonstrates that remote sensing, with the availability of free Landsat data, is a viable technology that could be used to help in the prediction process especially in developing countries, where data availability is a problem.     

Age of the western Black Sea basin according to an analysis of the anomalous magnetic field and geological data

Until recently, the ideas about the age of the Black Sea deep-water basin have been based on land geological observations in the coastal areas at the interaction periphery, underwater observations from manned submersibles, and on the data of seismic reflection and refraction studies and drilling. Formerly, the scarcity of the information led to a wide scattering of the age determinations: from the Jurassic to the Eocene. Recently, with the appearance of reliable geological and geophysical data, the range of the age estimates has been considerably reduced during the last few years, although there is no commonly accepted opinion on this issue. Therefore, the first attempt to determine the age of the Western Black Sea basin using an analysis of the anomalous magnetic field is of certain interest. The following results were obtained: the basin probably opened between 71.338 and 71.587 My B.P. (subchron C32n.1r). During the interval 68.737–71.071 My B.P. (subchron C31r), extinction of the spreading axes took place. Thus, the total duration of the Campanian-Maestrichtian phase of the opening was about 3 My (interval from 71.587 to 68.737 My B.P.). This result does not agree with the geological and geophysical data available to date. To solve this problem, collection of new geological data and further studies of the structure of the anomalous magnetic field are required.     

Trends and evolution of contamination in a well-dated water reservoir sedimentary archive: the Brno Dam, Moravia, Czech Republic

The sedimentary record from dams can provide important information about stratigraphy and pollution history of densely populated river basins. The Brno Dam is a small reservoir within the Morava River catchment (Czech Republic) accumulating lacustrine sediments since 1940 (dam filling). The stratigraphy of the dam sediments was studied using multiproxy stratigraphic analysis (X-ray densitometry, bulk magnetic susceptibility, diffuse spectral reflectance and cation-exchange capacity) of five sediment cores supported by ground-penetration radar sections. Concentrations of heavy metals were studied by X-ray fluorescence analysis. The thickness of the dam sediments decreases from 220 cm in the proximal part, near the feeder, to only 10 cm in the distal part, near the dyke. Sediments consist predominantly of finely-laminated silty sands, silts and clays. The sedimentation rate for the last ~22 years, inferred from ¹³⁷Cs dating, decreases from 4.2 cm per year in the proximal part of the dam to 0.29 cm per year in its distal part. Distinct long-term trends were found in the depth profiles of heavy metal concentrations. The heavy metal contents increase significantly after 1940 in all cores, with peak concentrations confined to layers deposited in the 1960s and 1980s. A decreasing trend occurred after 1989 (the decline in Czech heavy industry). The results also show that heavy metal contamination is dependent on lithology (hyperpycnal flow layers related to floods). Increased concentrations of phosphorus in the sediments indicate long-term eutrophication of the dam. Despite the recent decreasing trends in heavy metal concentrations the phosphorus contents remain high in recent years and have caused persisting problems with algal growth in the dam mentioned by previous authors.     

英国约克郡( Yo rkshire Dale)国家公园钙华苔藓植物群落研究

报道英国约克郡国家公园5个钙华沉积地点苔藓植物群落调查结果。该区域钙华苔藓群落共13个,由12科15属18种组成。区系地理成分由北温带和世界广布两种成分组成;生活型以垫状矮丛集型和交织型占优势。根据钙华沉积环境特征,划分Cron钙华苔藓群落、洞穴钙华苔藓群落、瀑华苔藓群落、峭壁钙华苔藓群落和泉华苔藓群落等5种类型。调查结果表明,研究区现代苔藓植物群落钙华沉积作用十分显著。      

Evaluating the impact of visualization of wildfire hazard upon decision-making under uncertainty

The paper investigates whether the methods chosen for representing uncertain geographic information aid or impair decision-making in the context of wildfire hazard. Through a series of three human subject experiments, utilizing 180 subjects and employing increasingly difficult tasks, this research evaluates the effect of five different visualizations and a text-based representation on decision-making under uncertainty. Our quantitative experiments focus specifically on the task of decision-making under uncertainty, rather than the task of reading levels of uncertainty from the map. To guard against the potential for generosity and risk seeking in decision-making under uncertainty, the experimental design uses performance-based incentives. The experiments showed that the choice of representation makes little difference to performance in cases where subjects are allowed the time and focus to consider their decisions. However, with the increasing difficulty of time pressure, subjects performed best using a spectral color hue-based representation, rather than more carefully designed cartographic representations. Text-based and simplified boundary encodings were among the worst performers. The results have implications for the performance of decision-making under uncertainty using static maps, especially in the stressful environments surrounding an emergency.     

A multi-proxy record of the Last Glacial Maximum and last 14,500?years of paleoenvironmental change at Lone Spruce Pond, southwestern Alaska

Sediment cores from Lone Spruce Pond (60.007°N, 159.143°W), southwestern Alaska, record paleoenvironmental changes during the global Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), and during the last 14,500 calendar years BP (14.5?cal?ka). We analyzed the abundance of organic matter, biogenic silica, carbon, and nitrogen, and the isotope ratios of C and N, magnetic susceptibility, and grain-size distribution of bulk sediment, abundance of alder shrub (Alnus) pollen, and midge (Chironomidae and Chaoboridae) assemblages in a 4.7-m-long sediment sequence from the depocenter at 22?m water depth. The basal unit contains macrofossils dating to 25?C21?cal?ka (the global LGM), and is interpreted as glacial-lacustrine sediment. The open water requires that the outlet of the Ahklun Mountain ice cap had retreated to within 6?km of the range crest. In addition to cladocerans and diatoms, the glacial-lacustrine mud contains chironomids consistent with deep, oligotrophic conditions; several taxa associated with relatively warm conditions are present, suggestive of relative warmth during the global LGM. The glacial-lacustrine unit is separated from the overlying non-glacial lake sediment by a possible disconformity, which might record a readvance of glacier ice. Non-glacial sediment began accumulating around 14.5?cal?ka, with high flux of mineral matter and fluctuating physical and biological properties through the global deglacial period, including a reversal in biogenic-silica (BSi) content during the Younger Dryas (YD). During the global deglacial interval, the ??¹³C values of lake sediment were higher relative to other periods, consistent with low C:N ratios (8), and suggesting a dominant atmospheric CO₂ source of C for phytoplankton. Concentrations of aquatic faunal remains (chironomids and Cladocera) were low throughout the deglacial interval, diversity was low and warm-indicator taxa were absent. Higher production and air temperatures are inferred following the YD, when bulk organic-matter (OM) content (LOI 550?°C) increased substantially and permanently, from 10 to 30?%, a trend paralleled by an increase in C and N abundance, an increase in C:N ratio (to about 12), and a decrease in ??¹³C of sediment. Post-YD warming is marked by a rapid shift in the midge assemblage. Between 8.9 and 8.5?cal?ka, Alnus pollen tripled (25?C75?%), followed by the near-tripling of BSi (7?C19?%) by 8.2?cal?ka, and ??¹⁵N began a steady rise, reflecting the buildup of N and an increase in denitrification in soils. Several chironomid taxa indicative of relatively warm conditions were present throughout the Holocene. Quantitative chironomid-based temperature inferences are complicated by the expansion of Alnus and resulting changes in lake nutrient status and production; these changes were associated with an abrupt increase in cladoceran abundance and persistent shift in the chironomid assemblage. During the last 2,000?years, chironomid-assemblage changes suggest cooler temperatures, and BSi and OM values were generally lower than their maximum Holocene values, with minima during the seventh and eighth centuries, and again during the eighteenth century.     

夏季副高与海温的相互关系及副高预测

通过分析夏季西太平洋副高与前期12月至后期11月的赤道太平洋和北太平洋海温的相关系数分布图,综合比较副高面积指数、西伸脊点和脊线位置与海温的相关关系,讨论副高对海温的反馈作用以及海温与夏季副高的物理联系模型,为副高预测提供依据.     

Diurnal photometric conditions at Teide observatory and long-term solar irradiance variations

Monochromatic extinction coefficients at four wavelengths have been obtained over a period of more than two years at the Observatorio del Teide (Izaña Tenerife) using a full disc, direct sunlight, quadruple photometer devoted to the detection of integral luminosity oscillations of the Sun. The mean extinction coefficients (0.13 at 500 nm) show a seasonal variation of about 15%, the best atmospheric conditions being in winter and autumn. Moreover, in anyone day the extinction coefficient in the afternoon is always lower than the one in the morning by 7%. A one-year period fluctuation, with an amplitude of 0.035 mag, has been identified in the instrumental magnitudes outside the atmosphere, and is interpreted as the variation produced by the different Sun-Earth distance from winter to summer. Finally, the study made to detect periodic time fluctuations in both, Sun's magnitude and extinction coefficients, has given null results at levels of 0.04 and 1.8%, respectively.