Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards*

Determining the likelihood of a disaster is a key component of any comprehensive hazard assessment. This is particularly true for tsunamis, even though most tsunami hazard assessments have in the past relied on scenario or deterministic type models. We discuss probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) from the standpoint of integrating computational methods with empirical analysis of past tsunami runup. PTHA is derived from probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA), with the main difference being that PTHA must account for far-field sources. The computational methods rely on numerical tsunami propagation models rather than empirical attenuation relationships as in PSHA in determining ground motions. Because a number of source parameters affect local tsunami runup height, PTHA can become complex and computationally intensive. Empirical analysis can function in one of two ways, depending on the length and completeness of the tsunami catalog. For site-specific studies where there is sufficient tsunami runup data available, hazard curves can primarily be derived from empirical analysis, with computational methods used to highlight deficiencies in the tsunami catalog. For region-wide analyses and sites where there are little to no tsunami data, a computationally based method such as Monte Carlo simulation is the primary method to establish tsunami hazards. Two case studies that describe how computational and empirical methods can be integrated are presented for Acapulco, Mexico (site-specific) and the U.S. Pacific Northwest coastline (region-wide analysis). * The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free license in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

Seismic risk evaluation of highway tunnel groups

Natural Hazards - Tunnels allow the continuity of rural road and urban transportation networks. Their shutdown provokes a loss in the transport system’s level service, which entails higher...     

Seismic wave propagation in laterally inhomogeneous poroelastic media via BIEM

This work addresses in‐plane pressure P and vertically polarized shear SV seismic wave propagation in a finite, laterally inhomogeneous, multilayered poroelastic geological region resting on the homogeneous elastic half‐space. The particular approach followed here is based on a combination of the (i) viscoelastic approximation (isomorphism) to Biot's equations of dynamic poroelasticity and on the (ii) boundary integral equation method (BIEM) using frequency‐dependent fundamental solutions of the governing wave equations. The problem is formulated under plane strain conditions and time‐harmonic motions are assumed. Validation of the viscoelastic isomorphism and verification of the BIEM is done by solution of benchmark examples. These simulation studies reveal that the proposed methodology is able to depict a sensitivity of the seismic signals recovered to the following parameters: (i) poroelastic properties of fluid saturated layers; (ii) lateral geological inhomogeneity; (iii) surface topography and (iv) frequency content and direction of the incident wave. It is concluded that the combination of viscoelastic isomorphism with BIEM software provides an effective numerical tool for evaluating site‐effect phenomena in multilayered, fluid saturated geological regions with complex geometry. The numerical results obtained demonstrate that dynamic poroelasticity interacting with other physical peculiarities of the Earth's surface layers, such as lateral heterogeneity, material properties along the wave path, local geological profile and type of elastic wave, gives rise to complex seismic signals on the free surface at the site of interest. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Questioning the virtues of pro-environmental behaviour research: Towards a phronetic approach

Drawing on Flyvbjerg’s (2001) call for the development of phronetic social science, this paper argues that much current research into pro-environmental behaviour (PEB) is misguided, and even potentially dangerous. After outlining Flyvbjerg’s argument, it reviews existing work on PEB and argues that, to date, it has predominantly sought after the Aristotelian intellectual virtues of either episteme or techne, and has neglected phronesis which Aristotle himself saw as most important. It then explores the ways in which aspects of a phronetic approach are being developed in cultural geography and environmental sociology, before offering a brief empirical case study of a PEB-change initiative to illustrate what a phronetic approach to research might look like. It concludes by calling for an improved and more reflexive dialogue between PEB researchers regarding the purpose and approach of their work, both in order to improve the relevance and impact of their research, and in order to help individuals and communities understand and confront the significant environmental challenges they currently face.     

Integrated geophysical and geological methods to investigate the inner and outer structures of the Quaternary Mýtina maar (W-Bohemia,Czech Republic)

The Mýtina maar is the first known Quaternary maar in the Bohemian Massif. Based on the results of Mrlina et al. (J Volcanol Geother Res 182:97–112, 2009), a multiparametric geophysical (electrical resistivity tomography, gravimetry, magnetometry, seismics) and geological/petrochemical research study had been carried out. The interpretation of the data has provided new information about the inner structure of the volcanic complex: (1) specification of the depth of post-volcanic sedimentary fill (up to ~100 m) and (2) magnetic and resistivity signs of one (or two) hidden volcanic structures interpreted as intrusions or remains of a scoria cone. The findings at the outer structure of the maar incorporate the (1) evidence of circular fracture zones outside the maar, (2) detection and distribution of volcanic ejecta and tephra-fall deposits at the surface, and (3) indications from electrical resistivity tomography and gravity data in the area between the Mýtina maar and ?elezná h?rka scoria cone, interpreted as a palaeovalley, filled by volcaniclastic rocks, and aligned along the strike line (NW–SE) of the Tachov fault zone. These findings are valuable contributions to extend the knowledge about structure of maar volcanoes in general. Because of ongoing active magmatic processes in the north-east part of the Cheb Basin (ca. 15–30 km north of the investigation area), the Mýtina maar-diatreme volcano and surroundings is a suitable key area for research directed to reconstruction of the palaeovolcanic evolution and assessment of possible future hazard potential in the Bohemian Massif.     

LBT: Its Instrumentation and Key Science Projects

B25 The site testing for the Thirty Meter Telescope and its potential role in developing the shortterm forecasting of observing conditions B34 LUCIFER: a NIR Spectrograph and Imager for the LBT B41 PEPSI: the Potsdam Echelle Polarimetric and Spectroscopic Instrument for the Large Binocular Telescope B44 LUCIFER: High Redshift Science Cases B49 Feedback in galaxy cores: a LBT Key Science Project proposal B52 SERPIL/LIINUS: a design study for a Near‐Infrared Interferometric Integral Field Spectrometer for the LBT B64 The Construction of the Large Binocular Telescope B73 Operating the LUCIFER Instrument B85 M92 – a crucial testbed for atomic diffusion and mixing in stars B142 The Large Binocular Camera at LBT B148 LUCIFER and its Exposure‐Time‐Calculator B196 The Multi‐Object Double Spectrograph and Nulling Interferometer for the Large Binocular Telescope B199 The Laser Guide Star Facility for the LBT B231 The PEPSI “deep spectrum” project B236 Zeeman‐Doppler imaging from Stokes IQUV line profiles B257 D3Dnet: getting ready for MUSE, a 2nd Generation Instrument for the VLT     

An externally forced barotropic circulation model for the New York Bight

The sea level and the barotropic, frictional circulation response for the New York Bight are used to demonstrate the effects of external sea-level forcing, bathymetry, and variable friction. The governing equation is the steady, integrated vorticity equation and is computed by finite differencing over a curvilinear grid conforming to the 10- and 100-m isobaths and extending for 250 km alongshore. The boundary conditions are based on the hypothesis that the dynamics of the shelf are driven by the external sea-level gradient and the coastal no-flux condition; and consequently the conditions at the lateral boundaries are dependent thereon. Therefore, the external sea-level slope must be independently specified, and the lateral boundary conditions must be dependently generated. The diabathic component of the external sea slope forces the calm wind circulation by its effect on the transport through the upstream boundary; and the parabathic component has also an important modifying effect by forcing a shelf convergent transport. The parabathic sea slope at the coast is independent of its offshore value, being instead a direct product of the coastal boundary condition.The bottom friction is expressed as related to the sea level through a bottom length parameter and a veer angle, both of which are taken to increase shoreward. An additional bottom stress component, related to the surface stress, is determined for bottom depths less than the Ekman depth. Such bottom stress variability produces significant alterations in the nearshore flow field, over the constant bottom stress formulation, by reducing it and causing it to veer downgradient and downwind in the nearshore.The model is forced by different wind directions and the results are discussed. The circulations generally conform to the observed mean flow patterns, but with several smaller-scale features. The strong bathymetric feature of the Hudson Shelf Valley causes a polarized up- and downvalley flow for winds with an eastward or westward component, respectively. Under mean westerly winds, there is a divergence in the shelf valley flow at about the 60-m isobath. The Apex gyre existing off the western tip of Long Island becomes more extensive for winds changing from northeast to southwest. Mean flow reversals (to the northeast) occur off both Long Island and New Jersey for wind directions changing counterclockwise from northwest to southeast and from west to east, respectively. Southeastward transport over the outer New Jersey shelf tends to be enhanced by wind and external sea-level conditions; and the transport over the New Jersey midshelf, particularly in the lee of the shelf valley, tends to be weak and variable also under these mean conditions.