On the accuracy of location of local shocks on the territory of Czechoslovakia and adjacent areas

Summary The calculation procedures for determining epicentre parameters of weak near shocks with foci in Poland are discussed and tested for explosions with known epicentres.

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Motion of particles in turbulent flow: Hyperbolicity,strange attractors and dynamic stochasticity of a system

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Estimating ground water recharge using flow models of perched karstic aquifers

The fraction of rain that is annually recharged to ground water is a function of the transient quantities of precipitation (wet vs. dry years) as well as other meteorological and geologic factors, and thus it is very difficult to estimate. In this study, we have used long records (20 to 30 years) of precipitation and spring discharge to reconstruct the transient character of yearly recharge. These data sets were used to calibrate numerical ground water flow models on the less than 3 km(2) scale for four separate perched karstic aquifers in the Judean and Samarian Mountains of Israel. The stratification and karstic character of the local carbonate rock aquifers cause ground water to flow through discrete dissolution channels and to discharge at isolated springs. An innovative, dual-porosity approach was used where a finite-difference solution simulates flow in the rock matrix, while the karstic channels are simulated using computationally simple drains. Perched conditions are also simulated innovatively using MODFLOW by treating the bottom unsaturated layer as if it is saturated, but by assuming zero pressure head throughout the "unsaturated" layer. Best fitting between measured and computed spring hydrograph data has allowed us to develop a set of empirical functions relating measured precipitation to recharge to the aquifer. The generic methodology presented gives insight into the suspected changes in aquifer recharge rates between particularly wet or dry years.     

Observations of tectonic microdisplacements in Europe in relation to the Iran 1997 and Turkey 1999 earthquakes

Long-term repeated measurements of microdisplacements in tectonic fault structures of various parts of Central Europe and the Balkan Mountains showed that displacement trends changed significantly at several points in the period from 1997 through 2000; afterward, long-term trends were restored. This phenomenon took place in the periods of strong (M > 7) earthquakes in Iran (1997) and in the North Anatolian fault zone in Turkey (1999). Two strong Izmit earthquakes of 1999 in Turkey at distances of 600 km from the Balkan Peninsula and 1400 km from observation points in Central Europe were the main seismic events of the period studied. Apparently, the crustal deformation due to the sources of the aforementioned earthquakes reaches the central part of the European craton. Anomalous displacements in some areas occurred due to deformation propagating for great distances in the heterogeneous block medium of the West European part of the Eurasian plate. Changes in stresses can be caused by impulsive deformations of various intensities acting on some structural units (fault segments) at various distances.     

Certainty, uncertainty, and the spatiality of disease: a West Nile Virus example

The problem is not uncertainty—proposed here as an inevitable condition—but the chimera of certainty asserted by most contemporary researchers. Problems of data definition, collection, and their use are reviewed in terms of spatial epidemiology and health data with examples drawn from several areas of contemporary health research. The argument is that preconceptions limit data modeled in a manner assuming its completeness. The result, as the West Nile Virus example seeks to demonstrate, may obscure other patterns and limit avenues of research.     

Integral inversion of SST data of type GRACE

Satellite missions CHAMP and GRACE dedicated to global mapping of the Earth’s gravity field yield accurate satellite-to-satellite tracking (SST) data used for recovery of global geopotential models usually in a form of a finite set of Stokes’s coefficients. The US-German Gravity Recovery And Climate Experiment (GRACE) yields SST data in both the high-low and low-low mode. Observed satellite positions and changes in the intersatellite range can be inverted through the Newtonian equation of motion into values of the unknown geopotential. The geopotential is usually approximated in observation equations by a truncated harmonic series with unknown coefficients. An alternative approach based on integral inversion of the SST data of type GRACE into discrete values of the geopotential at a geocentric sphere is discussed in this article. In this approach, observation equations have a form of Green’s surface integrals with scalar-valued integral kernels. Despite their higher complexity, the kernel functions exhibit features typical for other integral kernels used in geodesy for inversion of gravity field data. The two approaches are discussed and compared based on their relative advantages and intended applications. The combination of heterogeneous gravity data through integral equations is also outlined in the article. panovak@kma.zcu.cz     

Modeling of Stress Changes at Mayon Volcano,Philippines

In this paper, we analyze the stress change associated with the inverted volcanic source models at Mayon volcano, Philippines, where there are gravity changes without significant deformation after the 1993 eruption. We detail the applicable data and the associated inversion techniques and models prior to calculating the appropriate stress changes. It is determined that the stress change associated with the central magmatic source produces compressional stress changes at a secondary source to the northwest, prompting a change in the local water storage in the underlying fractured rock.