Challenges to global surveillance of disease patterns

Surveillance systems for foodborne disease vary in capacity by country, especially for marine-related illnesses. Generally, the more developed the country is, the more funding that is put into its surveillance programs, but no country has an outstanding system that could serve as a model for all others. An additional problem is lack of consistency. Approaches to surveillance and available resources change over time, so that apparent trends may reflect more of an administrative function. Most countries have some passive system that allows data on foodborne illnesses to be sent to centralized authorities where summaries are generated. However, these depend on the uneven quality of the source data that vary according to the resources allocated at the local level. Active surveillance systems collect data targeted to answer specific epidemiological questions more efficiently, but at such a high cost that most countries do not have the resources, except on a occasional basis. There is also the issue of what to do with the collected data. There has to be a conscious effort to translate the problems identified from the surveillance programs to consider strategies for prevention and control of foodborne disease. Otherwise, there is little value in having these kinds of monitoring programs. Another problem is lack of coordination in surveillance systems between most countries, so that information can be rapidly and efficiently shared. That being said, surveillance over the years had generated much interesting information on how disease agents are transmitted through the food supply, and where contamination and growth by pathogens in the food production and preparation chain typically occur. In addition, attempts are being made to create regional networks in different parts of the world usually initiated by organizations like WHO and PAHO. The kinds of information collected and programs being introduced are discussed in examples taken from both the developed and less developed world, followed by a series of recommendations for improving surveillance on a global basis. A recent burden in the surveillance system is the potential for a deliberate attack on the food supply with agents not usually involved with foodborne illness. At least in the US, a major concern is for the rapid detection and containment of a massive contamination of the food supply.     

二氧化碳排放以及对中国经济的影响

1IntroductionA seeming anomaly exists in the world today; namely, the fact that China, the second largest energy consumer and greenhouse-gas emitter, is not subject to any emissions reduction target under the Kyoto Protocol's first emission control period…     

Evaluating weather observations and the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis as inputs for hydrologic modelling in the tropics

Correctly representing weather is critical to hydrological modelling, but scarce or poor quality observations can often compromise model accuracy. Reanalysis datasets may help to address this basic challenge. The Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) dataset provides continuous, globally available records, and CFSR data have produced satisfactory hydrological model performance in some temperate and monsoonal locations. However, the use of CFSR for hydrological modelling in tropical and semi‐tropical basins has not been adequately evaluated. Taking advantage of exceptionally high rainfall station density in the catchments of the Rio Grande de Loiza above San Juan, Puerto Rico, we compared model performance based on CFSR records with that based on publicly available weather stations in the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN, n = 21) and on a dataset of rainfall records maintained by the United States Geological Survey Caribbean Water Science Center (USGS, n = 24). For an implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with subbasins defined at 11 streamflow gages, uncalibrated measures of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were >0 at 8 of 11 gages using USGS precipitation data for daily simulations over the period 1998–2012, but were <0 using GHCN weather station records (8 of 11) and CFSR reanalysis data (9 of 11). Autocalibration of individual SWAT models for each of the 11 basins against each of the available weather datasets yielded NSE values > 0 using all precipitation inputs, including CFSR. However, the ground weather station closest to the geographic basin centre produced the highest NSE values in only 5 of 11 cases. The spatially interpolated CFSR data performed as well or better than single ground observations made further than 20–30 km, and sometimes better than individual weather stations <10 km from the basin centroid. In addition to demonstrating the need to evaluate available weather inputs, this research reinforces the value of CFSR data as a means to supplement ground records and consistently determine a baseline for hydrologic model performance. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Beyond the “fit”: introducing climate forecasts among organic farmers in Georgia (United States)

Organic farmers are a prime clientele for climate services by virtue of their social profile and vulnerability of produce to climate extremes. The study draws on an online survey and in-depth interviews with organic farmers in Georgia (United States). It shows that organic farmers access and act on climate information in ways that reflect their emphasis on diversified and flexible systems. They favor a pluralistic knowledge base that integrates scientific expertise with place-based experience and intuitive understandings. Their management style combines information at multiple temporal scales and draws on a range of technical and social resources. Translating climate forecasts into usable science for organic farming requires attention to the identities, commitments, and relationships that define the organic farming community.     

The dispersion of fibrous amphiboles by glacial processes in the area surrounding Libby,Montana, USA

Mining operations began at a world-class vermiculite deposit at Vermiculite Mountain near Libby, Montana, circa 1920 and ended in 1990. Fibrous and asbestiform amphiboles intergrown with vermiculite ore are suspected to be a causative factor in an abnormally high number of cases of respiratory diseases in former mine and mill workers, and in residents of Libby. The question addressed in this report is whether some of the amphibole from Vermiculite Mountain could have been dispersed by Pleistocene glacial processes rather than by human activity after vermiculite mining began. The history of Pinedale glaciation in the Libby area provides a framework for estimating the presence and distribution of asbestiform amphiboles derived from Vermiculite Mountain and found in naturally occurring sediments of Glacial Lake Kootenai that underlie the Libby Valley area. There were two situations where sediments derived from Vermiculite Mountain were deposited into Glacial Lake Kootenai: (1) as lake-bottom sediments derived from meltwater flowing down Rainy Creek when the valley south of Vermiculite Mountain was free of ice but active ice still covered Vermiculite Mountain; and (2) as lake-bottom sediments eroded from the Rainy Creek outwash and re-deposited during a re-advance of the Purcell Trench Glacier lobe near Moyie Springs, Idaho.     

Prediction and assimilation of surf-zone processes using a Bayesian network: Part II: Inverse models

A Bayesian network model has been developed to simulate a relatively simple problem of wave propagation in the surf zone (detailed in Part I). Here, we demonstrate that this Bayesian model can provide both inverse modeling and data-assimilation solutions for predicting offshore wave heights and depth estimates given limited wave-height and depth information from an onshore location. The inverse method is extended to allow data assimilation using observational inputs that are not compatible with deterministic solutions of the problem. These inputs include sand bar positions (instead of bathymetry) and estimates of the intensity of wave breaking (instead of wave-height observations). Our results indicate that wave breaking information is essential to reduce prediction errors. In many practical situations, this information could be provided from a shore-based observer or from remote-sensing systems. We show that various combinations of the assimilated inputs significantly reduce the uncertainty in the estimates of water depths and wave heights in the model domain. Application of the Bayesian network model to new field data demonstrated significant predictive skill (R² = 0.7) for the inverse estimate of a month-long time series of offshore wave heights. The Bayesian inverse results include uncertainty estimates that were shown to be most accurate when given uncertainty in the inputs (e.g., depth and tuning parameters). Furthermore, the inverse modeling was extended to directly estimate tuning parameters associated with the underlying wave-process model. The inverse estimates of the model parameters not only showed an offshore wave height dependence consistent with results of previous studies but the uncertainty estimates of the tuning parameters also explain previously reported variations in the model parameters.     

Discovery of the “Phantom” dinoflagellate in Chesapeake Bay

Since its discovery in natural estuarine habitat of North Carolina in 1991, the widespread impact of the toxic dinoflagellate, Pfiesteria piscicida (gen. et sp. nov.), popularly called the “phantom” dinoflagellate, on North Carolina fish stocks has been established, yet little is known about its influence outside of North Carolina estuaries. Here, we document the presence of P. piscicida in Chesapeake Bay. A fish kill was observed after inoculating an aquarium containing mummichogs with sediment samples from Jenkins Creek, a brackish creek (salinity 11‰) of the Chesapeake Bay system. P. piscicida was the cause of the kill, as supported by morphological, physiological, and histological evidence. The appearance and behavior of the algae and symptoms associated with fish mortality were consistent with those previously observed in P. piscicida-associated aquaria fish kills in North Carolina. The discovery of P. piscicida in Chesapeake Bay supports the speculation that these toxic dinoflagellates have a dramatic and far-reaching impact on fish stocks in shallow, eutrophic estuaries along the eastern United States.     

Observations Of A Progressive Warm-Fresh Oceanic Front and A Cool-Moist Atmospheric Front At Duck, North Carolina

This paper presents a unique set of observations of nearlycoincident and progressive oceanic and marine atmospheric boundary-layer (MABL) fronts in a coastal zone. The event was observed during the afternoon of 12 May 1996 at the United States Army Corps of Engineers, Coastal Engineering Research Center, Field Research Facility pier at Duck, North Carolina. The oceanic front was warm and fresh. Current variabilityaccompanied the oceanic front. A marked MABL front preceded the oceanic front by several minutes and had characteristics of a sea-breezefront. This MABL front separated warmer and dryer pre-frontal air from cooler and moister post-frontal air. Wind direction and wind speedvariability accompanied the MABL front. The sea-surface roughness signatures of both fronts were detected by an X-band pulsed Doppler radar. Supporting data are used to identify each front detected by the radar and to calculate each front's velocity. In an attempt to explain the sea-surface roughness variations associated with each front, the radar data are compared to corresponding variations in wind speed, wind direction, and air-sea temperature difference.     

Mantle contribution to the evolution of Middle Tertiary silicic magmatism during early stages of extension: the Egan Range volcanic complex,east-central Nevada

The Egan Range volcanic complex lies 30 km northwest of Ely, on the edge of a highly extended domain in east-central Nevada. It consists mainly of lavas with subordinate tuffs and sedimentary rocks. The rocks are divided into three stratigraphic and lithologic groups that correlated with widespread middle Tertiary volcanic rocks associated with early stages of extension in the region. Volcanic rocks of the early group are predominantly two-pyroxene dacite and andesite lavas, all of which contain quenched, mafic inclusions and have compositions indicating they were derived by mixing between a contaminated mantle melt and a rhyodacitic crustal component. Rocks of the middle group are relatively homogeneous biotite, hornblende dacite and rhyodacite lavas. Elevated compatible and incompatible element concentrations and straight-line correlations of compositional data in the early and middle groups support a simple mixing model. Minor fractionation of clinopyroxene is required to explain some low Cr concentrations. Major element variations of the late group can be successfully modeled by crystal fractionation of observed phenocrysts accompanied by moderate assimilation of a crustal component to account for elevated Rb, Th, U, and light rare earth element concentrations. Rocks of all three groups appear to be related to a common primary magma type, the composition of which can be modeled from the mafic inclusions in the early group. Low Ni and Mg contents in the inclusions indicate that olivine was fractionated prior to their participation in mixing of early group magmas. Based on estimated volumes of volcanic rocks in the Egan Range volcanic complex and in the region, and on the petrologic models for each group, a significant amount of basalt must have been added to the crust during this middle Tertiary magmatic episode.